GabrielLandeskog

Eleven players in the West on the cusp of topping 60 points for the first time

 

Every league has its respective hierarchy that determines value and whether a player is untradeable, an important asset, a depth option, on the bubble, or waiver wire fodder. In one of my main keeper leagues (which is points only), the cutoff point between valuable and depth option happens to be “the 60-point player”.  The “60-point player” is an interesting dilemma, as the number suggests offensive reliability or in the case of a younger player – potential star or potential “70-point player”.

The magical 60-point mark screams value, keeper, and tradeable asset. To put it in perspective, let’s take a look at the past three seasons and the 60-point cutoff versus the 50-point cutoff. Due to last season’s lockout we will have to use prorated numbers for 2012-2013.

In 2010-2011, the top 49 players finished the season with 60 points or more. Meanwhile the next 49 players in the scoring race finished with between 50-59 points.  In 2011-12, the top 58 players finished with 60 points or more. The next 42 players in the scoring race finished in between the congested 50-59 point mark. As for last year’s shortened season, here is a look at last year’s prorated numbers.

 

2012-2013 (60-point pace prorated over 48 games = 35 points)

Number of players who finished with 35 points or more: 52

 

2012-2013 (50- to 59-point pace pro-rated over 48 games = 29-34 points)

Number of players who finished between 29-34 points: 47

The 60-point plateau is a fine line. Some players have established themselves offensively and year after year break the 60 point threshold. Other players flirt with the number and come close, perhaps missing the mark due to injury. Others have that career year where they break the 60 point barrier and then we expect it from them year after year. For this edition of the Wild West, let’s shift our focus out West and take a look at some players who may break the 60 point mark for the first time in their careers.

 

Gabriel Landeskog

Entering Saturday’s games, Gabriel Landeskog is the only player from the Western Conference in the top 30 in league scoring (currently 24th) who has never broken the 60 point plateau. With 51 points already this season and 22 games left on the Av’s schedule, we should expect Landeskog to break the 60 point mark easily. Landeskog is currently on pace for 71 points and barring injury he will likely flirt with 70.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

59

19

32

51

0.86

71

15

47

159

3

4

8

0

0

02:27

49.2

3.3

18:28

30.3

 

Note: The other two players currently in the top 30 in scoring and who have never surpassed 60 points are Kyle Okposo (59 points in 60 games) and James Van Riemsdyk (50 points in 59 games).

Probability that Landeskog reaches 60 points: 90%


Bryan Little

Last season, Bryan Little came close to being a “60 point player”. In 2012-2013 he finished with 32 points, which prorates as a 55 point season. At the moment Little has 48 points on the year and needs just 12 more to reach the coveted 60 point mark. With 21 games left on Winnipeg’s schedule, Little is currently on pace for 65 points and should get north of 60.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

61

19

29

48

0.79

65

7

42

130

1

6

10

2

4

02:41

50.0

40.0

20:01

32.7

Probability that Little reaches 60 points: 75%

 

Nathan MacKinnon

With just 24 points in his first 39 games, it appeared very unlikely that Mackinnon would reach the 60 point mark in his rookie season. Fast forward 21 games and 23 points later and all of a sudden Mackinnon looks like a solid bet to surpass 60. In fact, if he can repeat the feat over his next 21 games and put up another 23 points - Mackinnon will end up with 70 points. Mackinnon needs just 13 points over Colorado’s final 22 games to get north of 60.

2013-2014 Regular Season

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

60

22

25

47

0.78

64

14

20

176

5

8

15

0

0

02:16

44.7

1.6

16:28

27.0

Probability that Mackinnon reaches 60 points: 80%


Alexander Steen

After witnessing this year’s “point per game” version of Alexander Steen, it is hard to believe that he has never reached 60 points in his career. In fact, the 30-year-old has only surpassed 50 points once when he posted 51 points in 72 games in 2010-2011. Knowledgeable hockey fans understand that a pattern of injury follows Steen which is unfortunate, especially this season as he currently sites with 46 points (in just 48 games) with 23 games left on the Blues’ schedule. Steen only needs 14 points in his team’s last 23 games to reach 60 points for the first time in his career. Considering his prorated pace this year (when healthy) is 79 points one would think that Steen will get to 60 points no problem if he stays healthy. With just one point in his last seven games it may not come that easily.

2013-2014 Regular Season

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

48

28

18

46

0.96

79

13

34

159

9

5

10

1

1

03:18

56.6

33.1

20:26

33.4

Probability that Steen reaches 60 points: 70%


Ryan Johansen

The third year Blue Jacket is having a breakout season and is currently on pace for 64 points. In fact, Johansen’s 24 goals are good enough for 19th in the race for the Rocket Richard trophy. With 23 games left on Columbus’ schedule and only 14 more points needed to reach 60 on the year. What makes this even more impressive is Johansen only put up 11 points in his first 19 games this year. Since then he has managed 35 points in his past 40 games and is gradually becoming a must own fantasy option.

2013-2014 Regular Season

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

59

24

22

46

0.78

64

1

30

161

2

4

12

0

0

02:33

45.9

14.5

17:43

29.2

Probability that Johansen reaches 60 points: 75%


TJ Oshie

Time flies and it’s hard to believe that Olympic Shootout King TJ Oshie is already in his sixth season in the league. In his fourth season (2011-2012) Oshie slightly flirted with the 60 point mark by putting up 54 points in 80 games. This year it looks like he may finally get there as he is currently on pace for 64 points and needs 14 points in St. Louis’ final 23 games to strike 60. An interesting note - Oshie has played on the same line with Alexander Steen over 60% of the time this season, so if Oshie reaches 60 points, so should Steen. With just 5 points in his last 12 games, expect Oshie to cut it close in his pursuit of 60.

2013-2014 Regular Season

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

59

14

32

46

0.78

64

16

30

100

9

3

12

0

1

02:43

48.1

30.3

19:04

31.2

Probability that Oshie reaches 60 points: 60%

 

Above we have taken a look at six players in the West who have a good chance to put up 60 or more points for the first time in their careers. In closing let’s take a brief look at the rest of the best in the West who have a chance to strike 60 points for the first time.

 

Ryan O’Reilly – Is currently on a 62 point pace and needs 16 points in Colorado’s final 22 games to reach 60 points for the first time. Probability of 60 points: 50%

Dustin Byfuglien – The hybrid defenseman/forward has 43 points in 61 games and is currently on pace for 59 points. Big Buff needs 17 points in Winnipeg’s final 21 games. Probability of 60 points: 35%

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Needs 17 points from Edmonton’s last 21 games to reach 60 points. Nugent-Hopkins put up 52 points in 62 games in his rookie season (a 69 point pace) and would have likely reached 60 points if he stayed healthy that year. Maybe he gets there this time. Probability of 60 points: 35%

Jiri HudlerThe rejected Czech should be well rested after being left off his nation’s roster for Sochi. Hudler needs 17 points in Calgary’s remaining 23 games to reach 60 points for the first time. His closest attempt was 2008-2009 when he posted 57 points as a Red Wing. Probability of 60 points: 35%

David Perron Don’t hold your breath, but with 42 points in 57 games so far this season, Perron has an outside shot at reaching 60 points for the first time. Perron needs 18 points in the Oiler’s final 21 games. Probability of 60 points: 15%

Dallas Guzzwell is a fantasy hockey writer for DobberHockey. You can follow him @dallasg_11

 

Check out:

The Top Five Most Fearsome Foursomes in the West 
Underrated Gems 
Trade Deadline Preparations - Part 2   

 

 

Anyone missed? Who are candidates for next year? Discuss below, or discuss here.

 

 

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