Malkin vs. Stamkos - inside the numbers - Fantasy Sports Forums

VincentVega · #1 05-31-2011, 12:55 AM

There has been a lot of debate on these boards on who is better for fantasy hockey, Malkin or Stamkos. In this thread, we take an in-depth look at the numbers and compare the two players on common league categories.
Instead of upsides, which are seldom reached, we will try to predict future production based on past representative performance.

We'll look at only past performance of each player that is within a reasonable variance of their career average. To that effect, we throw away Stamkos' rookie year. Clearly, his stats from his rookie year are not representative of his true ability so they'll only skew the prediction and produce inaccurate results.

For Malkin, we'll throw away his rookie year for the same reason but also we'll discard his last year. The justification for doing the latter is that his PPG in his first four years is 1.23 while PPG in his last year is 0.86, clearly a significant difference that appears as an anomaly. For those curious, his average point total over 82 games drops from 105 to 99 if we include his last year. So here are the numbers:

Malkin
231 GP from 2007 to 2009
110 G, 186 A, 296 P
0.48 G/game = 39 G over 82 games
0.8 A/game = 66 A over 82 games
So average points over 82 games is 39 G + 66 A = 105 P

Stamkos
164 GP from 2009 to 2010
96 G, 90 A, 186 P
0.58 G/game = 48 G over 82 games
0.55 A/game = 45 A over 82 games
So average points over 82 gameis is 48 G + 45 A = 93 P

So Malkin has averaged 12 points more than Stamkos but Stamkos has averaged 9 goals more. Things even out in points if goals are weighed about 1.888 times assists:

Code:

39x + 62 = 48x + 45
62 - 45  = 48x - 39x
     17  = 9x
      x  = 17/9
      x  = 1.888

That means that goals must be worth 1.888 times assists in order for the two point totals to equal and more than 1.888 in order to prefer Stamkos over Malkin. For example, if your league setup weighs goals in a 5/3 to assists ratio, which is 1.666, then Malkin is preferrable.

Now, let's look at additional stats besides goals and assists. We'll look at PPG, PPA, SOG and PIM.

Malkin
231 GP from 2007 to 2009
44 PPG, 65 PPA, 258 PIM, 830 SOG
0.19 PPG/game = 16 PPG over 82 games
0.28 PPA/game = 23 PPA over 82 games
1.12 PIM/game = 92 PIM over 82 games
3.59 SOG/game = 294 SOG over 82 games

Stamkos
164 GP from 2009 to 2010
41 PPG, 36 PPA, 112 PIM, 569 SOG
0.25 PPG/game = 21 PPG over 82 games
0.22 PPA/game = 18 PPA over 82 games
0.68 PIM/game = 56 PIM over 82 games
3.47 SOG/game = 285 SOG over 82 games

Both Malkin and Stamkos have 39 PPP over 82 games with Stamkos getting 5 more goals. Edge to Stamkos if your league weighs PPG more than PPA. Malkin has a distinct advantage over Stamkos in PIM: 92 versus 56. There is also a tiny advantage to Malkin in SOG: 294 versus 285.

In summary, Malkin has an advantage in points(12), PIM(36) and an insignificant SOG(9) edge. Stamkos has an advantage in G(9) and PPG(5). The two are even in PPP(39). If your league weighs G more heavily than A, then the ratio of G/A needs to be at least 1.88 in order for Stamkos to equal Malkin in points production. If your league also rewards more for PPG, then this ratio is slightly lower.

So Malkin is preferred in leagues that count G and A evenly and include PIM. Malkin is still preferred in leagues that reward G more than A provided the ratio of G/A is less than 1.88. If that ratio is higher than 1.88 then Stamkos is preferred unless PIM is also included in which case your league setup will dictate the adjustment that needs to be made.

All of the above assumes that Malkin's ACL/MCL injury will not have a long-term impact on his production. If that assumption appears unjustified, then you may need to make your own adjustment to Malkin's numbers.

fungchen3 · #2 05-31-2011, 02:22 AM

Another thing to consider is:

Stamkos has missed 3GP in 3 seasons.

Malkin has missed 58GP in 5 seasons.

My personal opinion is that Malkin has a slightly higher "realistic" upside (120 vs. Stamkos 110). But in order to reach that upside, Malkin has to stay healthy and find some chemistry with linemates.

In a league with straight points, Malkin will most likely bring in an extra 5-10 on a regular basis, if you are willing to sit through the injuries and moodiness. In a league that bonuses goals, I would take Stamkos 9x out of 10.

At the end of the day these guys are close. If you are a Malkin fan, take him. If you like Stamkos better, take him. The margin between the two is slim - this is not a Crosby vs. Stamkos scenario. Malkin has more pedigree but Stamkos is getting better.

Tanzer · #3 05-31-2011, 07:50 AM

Great post! Congrats Mister Vega!

TwoPuckCanuck · #4 05-31-2011, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fungchen3

Another thing to consider is:

Stamkos has missed 3GP in 3 seasons.

Malkin has missed 58GP in 5 seasons.

My personal opinion is that Malkin has a slightly higher "realistic" upside (120 vs. Stamkos 110). But in order to reach that upside, Malkin has to stay healthy and find some chemistry with linemates.

In a league with straight points, Malkin will most likely bring in an extra 5-10 on a regular basis, if you are willing to sit through the injuries and moodiness. In a league that bonuses goals, I would take Stamkos 9x out of 10.

At the end of the day these guys are close. If you are a Malkin fan, take him. If you like Stamkos better, take him. The margin between the two is slim - this is not a Crosby vs. Stamkos scenario. Malkin has more pedigree but Stamkos is getting better.

You hit the nail on the head with that. Malkin definetly has a higher upside than Stamkos, but thats all potential based on a) health and b) linemates.

Just some ramblings:

Now, Malkin is going to have a rough off-season, having surgery on both his ACL and MCL, but this could be a good thing. IMO, he may have some managers nervous, being a good buy low, but will come back this season stronger than last. He finally has a new potential linemate in Neal. And if Neal is to play with Crosby, well that would shift down one of Crosby's wingers, likely Dupuis, to play with Malkin. Or even at that, Malkin is known to play winger and easily could join Crosby's line. This may not have worked in the past, but either way his production will be high next year.

Malkin will reward owners with more points and more PIMs than Stamkos, but Stamkos will benefit you in goals and maybe PPP. I am partial to Malkin, I think he is the better of the two, but it boils down to point format when comparing the two.

VincentVega · #5 05-31-2011, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fungchen3

In a league that bonuses goals, I would take Stamkos 9x out of 10.

It's not as simple as that. Malkin will score fewer goals but get a lot more assists. Based on individual league scoring, Stamkos' more goals may or may not make him more valuable, it depends on how much more goals are worth than assists.

Quote:

Originally Posted by fungchen3

At the end of the day these guys are close. If you are a Malkin fan, take him. If you like Stamkos better, take him. The margin between the two is slim - this is not a Crosby vs. Stamkos scenario. Malkin has more pedigree but Stamkos is getting better.

Agreed. But you still use above analysis in your decision, which at the end may come down to personal preference anyway.

tgraveline · #6 05-31-2011, 10:11 AM

Wow, this is extremely helpful and justifies my want to trade for Malkin. I already own Stamkos and will try to see if I can get gino. I'm happy to see some of the science between the two and this helps me gauge what type of player I'm looking at despite the injury filled year.

fungchen3 · #7 05-31-2011, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VincentVega

It's not as simple as that. Malkin will score fewer goals but get a lot more assists. Based on individual league scoring, Stamkos' more goals may or may not make him more valuable, it depends on how much more goals are worth than assists.

Agreed. But you still use above analysis in your decision, which at the end may come down to personal preference anyway.

VV,

Using most of my leagues as an example - G are worth 2pts. and A are worth 1pt. PP/SH get you a +1 point bonus and a GWG gets you a +2 point bonus.

Based on this - if Stamkos scores 48G/50A (98 real points / 146 pool points before bonus), Malkin would have to score 36G/74A (110 real points / 146 pool points before bonus) to even be close to Stamkos.

When you factor in all of the bonus points for PP/SH and GWG, a player like Stamkos can clean up. Last year I played in 7 fantasy hockey leagues and goals were worth 2-to-1 vs. assists in 6 of the 7 leagues. In this format, Stamkos > Malkin.

waddy1788 · #8 05-31-2011, 10:19 AM

Vincent Vega, great name, even better post! Well done!

Yet another thing to consider, Stamkos is 21, and Malkin 24. Not much of a difference, but Malkin is entering his prime years (25 to 30), while Stammer is still much in his learning/maturation years. Might be something to consider if you are building a keeper team, or are looking to win right now.

VincentVega · #9 05-31-2011, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fungchen3

VV,

Using most of my leagues as an example - G are worth 2pts. and A are worth 1pt.

Yeah, agreed. In this scoring, Stamkos > Malkin. In fact, as long as G/A ratio is greater than 1.888 (see OP for details), Stamkos > Malkin, provided PIM don't come into play.

VincentVega · #10 05-31-2011, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by waddy1788

Vincent Vega, great name, even better post! Well done!

Yet another thing to consider, Stamkos is 21, and Malkin 24. Not much of a difference, but Malkin is entering his prime years (25 to 30), while Stammer is still much in his learning/maturation years. Might be something to consider if you are building a keeper team, or are looking to win right now.

Thanks, waddy.

I don't really think the age difference is much of a factor. Both are going to help you win right now and both have a lot of years left in them.

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Fantasy Ranking

Login Form