Comments for The Role of Advanced Statistics in Fantasy Hockey at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 10 out of 10 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Sat, 25 May 2013 16:38:59 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/5331-the-role-of-advanced-statistics-in-fantasy-hockey#comment-24522 Tiger - All three of your points, I don't understand...Some problems that I have with your points: 1. TOI/PP - that has nothing to do with anything I said. Nothing. I'm referring to time on the ice, period. While some hardcore Adv. Stats followers shout Corsi at me, I look at the player and see he played 8 minutes. His Corsi can be sparkling, but it matters little if the coach decides not to play him. 2. PDO measures luck very well. But can it predict a broken leg? That's the kind of luck I was referring to. I think my article was pretty clear on that point, but you didn't catch it. 3. Intangibles are the most relevant thing in fantasy hockey, when it comes to keeper leagues and prospects. I like advanced stats and they help me a lot. But you're arguing with my article as if I'm against them. I'm just preaching caution that they should not be used exclusively... and that those who do use them need to completely understand their limitations. Jamie - my point on clutch is being overblown. I list 50 reasons for 'caution' and not to take advanced stats as the bible. Clutch is just one of those reasons. So we're talking about 2% of my point. A small factor, but collectively taken with the rest of them makes a huge difference. - Dobber Sat, 09 Mar 2013 07:33:06 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/5331-the-role-of-advanced-statistics-in-fantasy-hockey#comment-24519 A couple problems I have with this article: re: TOI/PP - advanced stats takes this into account much more completely than any other method of evaluation. It's the reason so many are calculated on a per/60 basis. Most advanced stats are alse very specifically divided by game situation ie. 5X5, 5X4, 4X5. re: luck - advanced stats are really the only solid means of identifying luck, good or bad, so I don't understand why you'd identify luck as something they don't cover very well. re: Intangibles - highly irrelevant to fantasy hockey, plus one has to actually believe in clutch first. Even still, in the end a persons "clutchness" or lack thereof, would be easily identified by most advanced metrics if it existed. - TigerUnderGlass Fri, 08 Mar 2013 09:24:45 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/5331-the-role-of-advanced-statistics-in-fantasy-hockey#comment-24517 I'd agree that there are very few advanced metrics that offer much of anything for fantasy hockey enthusiasts. For example, Mikael Granlund's Corsi numbers match what you can see on the ice -- he's not ready for prime time. Watching games will tell you more than enough about the guys on your fantasy roster. But there are a handful of stats that can give you an edge over the owners in your league who completely disregard them. PDO is a nice, simple number that HELPS (key word) an owner understand luck and statistical regression. Zone starts are a good numerical indicator of a player's role and how he's being used by his coach. I even find it helpful to look at a player's performance against even strength to see how it compares to his overall production. Is it better? Is it worse? How does it compare with how he's being used by his coach. More information (as long as its properly understood, contextualized and weighted properly) is always better than less information -- especially when being used to make decisions on value. No one should make all their roster decisions based on advanced stats. No one should completely disregard them, either. You are absolutely right when you say it's a balancing act. - MikeTSchmidt Fri, 08 Mar 2013 08:29:54 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/5331-the-role-of-advanced-statistics-in-fantasy-hockey#comment-24515 That's a great point, Ryan. While you make some good points, Dobber, I don't think fantasy hockey players should generally concerned, for example, with whether a player is "clutch" in key games. For a fantasy hockey player, it doesn't matter whether with a player scores 5 points in a big game or a mean-nothing game. In that respect, we can afford to approach player evaluation from a much higher level than "real life" GMs. - Jamie @ Fantasy Hockey Geek Fri, 08 Mar 2013 07:13:56 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/5331-the-role-of-advanced-statistics-in-fantasy-hockey#comment-24512 Also another big factor that you have to take into consideration is that the people you quoted (Beane, Burke, MacTavish), have a much different prerogative than us poolies. They're in the "real-life" scenarios, of everyday hockey, they see each other at the rink, they travel together, they eat together, they see the on ice difference that a person who has heart does for a team. They can see a [b]direct effect[/b] that a big hit or a fight does to change the momentum of a team. So I can fully understand why they would say that "stats isn't the be all and end all." Because there are much more intangible factors behind success in "real life" hockey than there is in fantasy hockey. However, in the realm of fantasy hockey, we're all about the numbers. We don't measure "heart", we don't measure effort, strength or defensive responsibility. Which is where I think you're devaluing the how stats play a role in fantasy hockey. [b]Fantasy hockey is all about stats [/b], real-life hockey takes more into consideration of the "bigger picture." At the end of the day, fantasy hockey is about who gets the most goals, most assists, the better GAA, or SP... That's what helps you win. That's where advanced stats can help you build a better picture of what's going on. I understand that you shouldn't lean 100% purely on stats, but I think they should play a much bigger role than most poolies give it credit for. Once you have the stats, looking at the interpretation of them is the key. - Ryan Ma Thu, 07 Mar 2013 11:43:47 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/5331-the-role-of-advanced-statistics-in-fantasy-hockey#comment-24511 Well I'm big into my stats, the three that I use are ice-time, SOG and PP TOI (now I'm transitioning over to percentage of team power play opportunities). The thing with stats is that they are quantifiable, and if used correctly can be used as an explanation as to why things are occurring. I've have a few numerous debates with Dobberities (MT319) regarding this factor, the thing is if you take "heart", "skating mechanics", "offensive talent" into account into statistics? Those are all qualitative factors, how do you judge someone has more heart? How do you judge that player X has better skating mechanics as player Y... You're arguing from your point of view of interpretation, and it's hard to develop a solidified argument. You can't however argue from numbers, you can't argue that player X is garnering 20:20 in ice-time with 4:02 on the power play... Grant you can always fudge the numbers to make it represent what you want it to say... But if used correctly they are a very powerful tool to help you gain a "bigger picture". The big thing that I 100% agree with angus about is their predictive value. If someone is shooting at 35%, but they for their entire career is shooting as 12%, well what should the stats tell you moving forward? So yes they can tell you what happened, now what the challenge for us big into those stats, is understanding why they happened and if it will continue to happen or will it change... That's the job for us, or Fantasy Hockey Power Play (plug!), to interpret. Advanced stats are great, but as Angus said, the three that is probably the most important is TOI, SOG and PP TOI, as all three of those factors have a huge correlation factor to point production. - Ryan Ma Thu, 07 Mar 2013 10:33:07 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/5331-the-role-of-advanced-statistics-in-fantasy-hockey#comment-24509 The big question I have with the advanced stats and fantasy hockey is their predictive value. Advanced stats are great at telling us what happened, but can they tell us what will happen? I have enjoyed diving into this field over the past two years. I use it for fantasy hockey, but not significantly. I still rely a lot on ice time, shooting percentage, and so on. - angus Thu, 07 Mar 2013 09:29:29 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/5331-the-role-of-advanced-statistics-in-fantasy-hockey#comment-24508 Well written, one of my favourite articles this year. I like the order in which they are written too. Time-on-ice (TOI) is indeed the starting block for player evaluation. How is he doing in his even-strength time? How much capacity does he have to play? Most top forwards play 20min/game, most top defense play 25min/game. Knowing how much a player is currently getting vs. what's left is key. I also focus on even-strength production which correlates with the "capacity" to increase production by getting that PP-time (gravy). And linemates are KEY factors that are often overlooked. Some people like to say "JoeX can produce all by himself". For the elite, like Crosby, true. For 99% of hockey players, linemates can have as much as a 20pt impact on scoring. I think advanced statistics are going to help coaches figure out how to best use their players in roles, most defensively. I don't think any coaches are too far out-to-lunch with how to find playing time for their most offensively talented players... so there really isn't much, IMO, that advanced statistics can help us with. Really well written here. A+, HUGE thumbs up. - Pengwin7 Thu, 07 Mar 2013 09:10:53 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/5331-the-role-of-advanced-statistics-in-fantasy-hockey#comment-24506 Very true, but that also ties in with 'clutch' - which won't be reflected in stats of 'regular' games but rather in 'key' games. - Dobber Thu, 07 Mar 2013 08:18:40 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/5331-the-role-of-advanced-statistics-in-fantasy-hockey#comment-24505 An argument that many people fail to see is that, ideally, stats should take into account intangibles. That is, if a player has 'heart', or is 'clutch', or is a good skater, or whatever, those intangibles should naturally be reflected in that player's stats, both basic and advanced stats. Otherwise, if a player's stats aren't boosted by his "heart", what value is that heart? - Jamie @ Fantasy Hockey Geek Thu, 07 Mar 2013 08:16:11 +0100