Comments for Geek of the Week: Henrik Lundqvist at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 2 out of 2 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Sun, 19 May 2013 14:59:25 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/916-geek-of-the-week/5061-geek-of-the-week-henrik-lundqvist#comment-23289 In re some of Ryan's points: http://forums.dobbersports.com/showpost.php?p=1031015&postcount=11 - Hey_Robbie Mon, 19 Nov 2012 14:42:52 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/916-geek-of-the-week/5061-geek-of-the-week-henrik-lundqvist#comment-23282 T-Camp! Another solid article! I was originally with your line of thinking, but over the last 2-3 seasons I'm beginning to change my mindset regarding goalies in H2H leagues. 1) Even though Lundy is a high quality goalie, the major problem is most leagues you need to have 2 if not 3 goalies... So even though Lundy might be produce ridiculous numbers in your number 1 goalie slot, you need to have a #2 and #3 to help "support" his stats. So if you draft Lundy at say #5, you would be forced to use your 2nd round pick (20th overall) to grab another "high end" goalie to maintain the goalie stats dominance, which means you wouldn't grab your first offensive player till the 29th pick, which would really hamper that department... There'd be no point in drafting Lundy with your 5th pick then waiting till the 5th/6th round to grab your 2nd goalie. The numbers that they'd produce would negate any positive that Lundy brings. So to me if you're investing in Lundy, you'd have to invest your first 2 picks on him. 2) Another knock on Lundy is that yes he has averaged 69 games started during the last 6 seasons, but it's the [b]62[/b] that's the major worry and that appears to be the trend moving forward. With the Rangers making it an emphasis on keeping him fresh for the playoffs and limiting his regular season starts, his fantasy value is decreasing. Let's assume that he's going to average 62 moving forward in order for him to get into the 40 wins range he would need to win close to 65% of his starts, which is a very very high number. Most elite goalies are around the 60% mark, so pushing it up to 65% would make it all that more difficult. Another (perhaps better alternative) is maybe [b]Quick[/b]. He's in a situation where he'll get 70 starts a season, for him to get to 40 wins, he only needs to maintain a win 
g;e of 57% which is a bit more achievable than 65% for Lundy. His team will help out the GAA and SP stats where he'll likely be in the same vicinity as Lundy's ~2.27 GAA and .920 SP. 3) Another big factor for me is in H2H there is a lot more [b]variance[/b] between stats week to week than in Roto where you get a full-year's stats. I know plenty of weeks where I've went into it with a Lundy, Quick and Brodeur then go up against someone with Hiller, Ward and Pavelec. I'm thinking I got this one in the bag... then a couple of 3 goal games from my goalies and a double shut out from my opponent's goalies and I'm screwed... In my close friend's H2H league, I know of the 7 winners that we've had, 5 of them didn't place a strong emphasis on goalies, and a lot of them just ran with the Lehtonen's, Hiller's, Mason's and just end up stealing the "wins and saves" categories, then dominate the offensive categories to a victory... I've always placed an emphasis on goalies and have never won once (I've actually had 3 consecutive 2nd place finishes, AHHHHHH!!!). 4) This one is also a kicker for me too. Lundy's numbers in wins: [b]1.51 GAA and .945 SP (absolutely dominant!)[/b]. Losses: [b]2.75 GAA and .904 SP (ouch!)[/b]... So even though his overall numbers are very consistent, in his losses there is still definitely a lot of room for the opponent to "catch up". Quick's numbers in wins: [b]1.32 GAA and .951 SP (even more dominant!)[/b]. Losses: [b]2.62 GAA and .904 SP [/b](slightly better than Lundy) I do agree with you that Lundy is amongst the elite... but I don't know if there are better alternatives out there now or if going Lundy is a "surefire" better strategy to lead you to victory. - Ryan Ma Sun, 18 Nov 2012 11:29:17 +0100