Comments for Statistical Anomalies (Part One) at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 13 out of 13 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Tue, 21 May 2013 16:54:06 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/5054-statistical-anomalies-part-one#comment-23283 Yeah Jagr has a ton of experience but I think that both Giroux and Voracek have room to grow yet and overall there won't be much of a drop. Will he be #1 in PPP production again, the odds are against it but does he have as good of a shot as he had last year, yeah I think so. I think that Giroux is or will be a consistent top 3 to top 5 player for years. I guess it comes down to whether or not you think Giroux's production is reliant mostly on the people around him or if he creates opportunities for himself and his linemates. - Farley Sun, 18 Nov 2012 17:20:29 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/5054-statistical-anomalies-part-one#comment-23276 I dunno about the age factor... but it's the hockey IQ that's swayed me... Jagr has the smarts to know when and where his team mates are and to adapt. Voracek I haven't seen that aspect from him yet. I guess it depends on whether you rae a glass half full or half empty type of guy. Would you want to head into the season expecting Voracek to 100% fill the shoes of Jagr, or are you willing to give it some leeway and expect that he might fill 75% of Jagr... I guess my question to you is do you reckon Giroux with Voracek instead of Jagr will maintain number 1 PPP production? Ahead of Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos? Don't get me wrong I'm not saying knock Giroux down 10 spots... I'm just saying right now he's the 3rd ranked forward after Malkin, Stamkos and ahead of Crosby, would you consider taking him ahead of Malkin, Stamkos and Crosby given the uncertainty with Jagr leaving? - Ryan Ma Fri, 16 Nov 2012 20:00:02 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/5054-statistical-anomalies-part-one#comment-23275 Interesting oddities but do you really think that an aged Jagr is that much better than a rising Voracek? I understand that his experience helps the PP but will it be that significant of a drop. I have to ask since I have seen this Jagr effect in other articles. Isn't it equally likely that Voracek and Giroux both pick up their game a bit this year and at the least cover the loss of Jagr. - Farley Fri, 16 Nov 2012 19:03:19 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/5054-statistical-anomalies-part-one#comment-23272 Yeah I debated about that one for a few hours whether to stick it in or not... Yeah this column was supposed to be about "anomalies" (stats that shouldn't happen ever again), but I thought it was something interesting to note that the Kings had that many SO, I didn't think it was a fact that very many people knew about... With this day and age of Kings/Blues/Bos defense first hockey, I'm wondering if it's going to be a league wide trend like back in the 90s where defense ruled the roost where the league average was under 5 goals a game... Probably didn't have much to relate to this article, just thought I'd chuck it as a tidbit... - Ryan Ma Fri, 16 Nov 2012 13:10:11 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/5054-statistical-anomalies-part-one#comment-23271 I'm not sold yet, maybe another year of repeated production, but after 1 year where he shot 18.9% I'm not convinced, especially when his rookie year was just 11.4%... One of the big things is when a player shoots > 15%, they're already way above the norm, I don't have the numbers, but I would hypothesize that the average NHLer is probably around the 7-8% mark... So when a sophomore reels off 18.9% I'm blown away. There are very few pure snipers in the game, Stamkos is probably the purest sniper in the game. So I would expect him to be 15%+ each and every season,David Jones is another that has impressed me, but he doesn't take a lot of shots. David Perron is a bubble for me, sometimes he wows me sometimes I'm thinking why the hell did you take that shot for? Toews is another sniper as well, but he's like Jones where he doesn't take a lot of SOG, but he's improving... Eberle did show some signs, but I'm not convinced that he's at a Stamkos level yet... But time will tell. - Ryan Ma Fri, 16 Nov 2012 13:02:58 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/5054-statistical-anomalies-part-one#comment-23270 To each their own... But with everything you still kind of need to acknowledge it, whether you believe in it is a separate problem. For someone like Pominville, who was absolutely ridiculous at home last season, I'd head into the season expecting a bit of a regression, he posted a 1.12 point-per-game rate at home, which is ridiculous... That was essentially on par with Neal, Tavares, Kessel, Kovalchuk and Hossa. Because of his inflated home totals he posted 73 points... If those numbers regress back to his "average" he's looking at a regression of probably 10-15 points. As most draft lists place an extra emphasis on past season production, his value will be inflated at the draft table. So that's how I would use home/away splits to guide my opinion. - Ryan Ma Fri, 16 Nov 2012 12:53:29 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/5054-statistical-anomalies-part-one#comment-23269 People always knock Gomez, but it's unfounded. The thing is [b]offensively[/b] he is over-rated, but it's the intangibles that he brings that give him much more "real-life value" than his offensive production and because of those factors he'll continue to garner ice-time for those factors that he brings. You have to keep in mind that Gomez still averaged 2:20 on the PP when he did suit up, so it's not like he's not getting any PP time at all... So does that mean less PP time for MacPac? Yes it does, because if Gomez wasn't there, MaxPac would be getting 4+ minutes game instead of 3:10... so Gomez does directly influence how much PP time MacPac gets. Also keep in mind that it's a combination of all 3 Gomez, Gionta and Markov (and you cab probably throw in Galchenyuk too) that would have a negative effect on Cole, Desharnais and MaxPac, it's not just Gomez vs. Max Pac... The Habs' production last season was a very top-heavy, Desharnias, Cole and MaxPac contributed 35.8% of the Habs' total points... What I'm forecasting is that with Gomez, Gionta, Markov, Galchenyuk and Bourque all entering back into the fray, that percentage will drop, which will probably affect MaxPac's offensive production. - Ryan Ma Fri, 16 Nov 2012 12:47:07 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/5054-statistical-anomalies-part-one#comment-23268 Yeah it's the efficiency that I think will take a hit... 2 years ago when Parise was out with his knee injury, the Devils operated at 14.4%, it shot up to 17.2% last season, small changes but it could add to a difference. You also have to take into account he was tied for [b]5th[/b] for PPP production, which is pretty high for his standard. So there's really only down for him to go. There might be more ice-time to go round, but it might be less efficient. - Ryan Ma Fri, 16 Nov 2012 12:33:41 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/5054-statistical-anomalies-part-one#comment-23267 It's not the numbers that I'm entirely concerned with, for me its the chemistry... With Jagr there, he was kinda the stabilizing factor. He provided the experience, and calmness, the thing is who's the replacement? Read? Voracek? Simmonds? Briere, Hartnell? That's what I'm a bit wary of. Don't get me wrong he's still part of the elite, still definitely first round material, but I wouldn't take him over a Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos at the moment. - Ryan Ma Fri, 16 Nov 2012 12:11:06 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/5054-statistical-anomalies-part-one#comment-23266 Agree as well - really solid piece. What's great is there's something relevant to most everyone, and at least a couple of surprises that even folks who follows these players and teams closely might not have realized. You support your points really well, except for PPP. Giroux's PPP per game average of .41 last year is in line with what he did in 2009-10 when he posted 47 points with 21 coming on the PP (.44 per game). It looks more like what he did in 2010-11 (when he had 76 points with only 21 on the PP) was the anomaly. And Elias has done well on the PP before, averaging about .3 power play points per game over the past 5 seasons (including one season where he had 31 in 77 games), so 29 in 81 games last year (.35 per game) is not that much of a departure from the norm. I also agree with the other commenter about Pacioretty - I'm not buying all the talk about his great stats last season being owed, at least in part, to Gomez and Gionta missing games. Yes, maybe their being out of the lineup opened the door for Pacioretty, but their return to health should be a non-factor since clearly Pacioretty has arrived and will not see his ice time or spot with Cole and Desharnais be threatened. I'm also not sure what you meant in terms of the Kings - the column is about anomalies that are not likely to happen again, so are you saying that the Kings won't be shut out as often again this season, or that if they are they won't be as successful? The former is clearly of relevance to poolies, less so the latter. - RizzeeDizzee Fri, 16 Nov 2012 10:00:26 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/5054-statistical-anomalies-part-one#comment-23260 Probably one of the few things we disagree on is home/road splits. As player "point" totals go, I don't feel it's something to put much stock into. Of note, something like ROAD FOW% can vary, because the road center is forced to be set for his faceoff prior to the home center. And a center will tell you that makes a difference. If the officials are told to crack-down on something small (like this) it could have a negative impact on one-side. The one player who could repeat his anomaly is... Eberle. I've heard people mention his shooting percentage several times, so I made a point to go to NHL.com and watch Eberle videos of all his goals. Kid is a sniper! AND, all of Hall/RNH/Yakupov are LH, so he's the only RH stick on that EDM PP, so he sets up to the goalie's right. Most people (& goalies, I assume) are RH. I think only 1/7 people are lefties. This means that most goalies have their blocker-side as the same-side as where Eberle is positioned on the PP. Head on over to NHL.com, type in Eberle, click, go to videos. Watch those goals. Especially the goal on 03/30 against LA (mid-high inside right post) and 03/05 against ANA (shelf, no prayer for goalie), 01/05 against STL (mid-high inside right post), 12/09 against COL (shelf, no prayer). I mean... these goalies can't do anything against that. Eberle is a pre-programmed robot for shooting on the PP and he already has an "office". I'm not arguing that 19% is high... but I think he'll be over 15% constantly and I think there will be a few 20% seasons in his career. Overall, another gem! - Pengwin7 Fri, 16 Nov 2012 04:29:49 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/5054-statistical-anomalies-part-one#comment-23259 Good article. But there are 2 points that sounds weird to me : 1:"With Zach Parise leaving for Minnesota and Elias not receiving top-tired PP ice-time, expect his PPP totals to take a hit." I thought that with Parise out of town would mean more PP ice-time for Elias no ? Unless your saying that the whole NJ PP will be less effective. 2:"with Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta and Andrei Markov all being sidelined with numerous injuries which gave Pacioretty some extra responsibilities throughout the season. With the team getting healthier this season..." Don't get me started with Gomez, come on ! I can't believe that Gomez being healty means less PP ice-time or offencive zone starts for Max Pac. Plus Markov back should give a boost to Mtl's PP, well I hope as a Habs fan. Thans for the good read and keep the good job. - Billy_the_Phil Fri, 16 Nov 2012 04:29:12 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/5054-statistical-anomalies-part-one#comment-23257 Love the article. Red flags (statistical anomolies) like these are extremely important to consider going into a new season. I think every single one of these points are spot on and I will keep the advice in mind for sure! The only one I disagree on is Giroux. I think his PPP spike was more related to his breakout season and his increased responsibilities post Richards-Carter than it was related to Jagr. Giroux played 9 games without Jagr last season and scored 6PPP. That's .66 PPP per game. His average WITH Jagr was .47PPP per game. Granted it is a small sample size without Jagr, but he did show an ability to produce at an elite PPP clip without Jagr. His 38PPPs are also a direct result of his overall increase in production. 40% of his points came on the PP last season. In the prior 2 seasons combined, 32% of his points came on the PP. As a portion of total points, this isn't that big of a jump and when you consider that he is now "the man" on the top PP, it is easily explainable and I would argue repeatable. I personally wouldn't expect much regression from Giroux in PPP next year. Great stuff here. As a MaxPac owner, I wish I could disagre with that one as well - but I don't think I can. Solid points on all of these players/teams. Considerations such as the impact of a trade to Wideman's hit output are the types of things that seperate good managers from great ones. Love it. - T-Camp Fri, 16 Nov 2012 02:52:19 +0100