Comments for Enlightened You Shall Be (2012) at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 11 out of 11 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Thu, 20 Jun 2013 04:15:34 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/4946-enlightened-you-shall-be-2012#comment-22799 For me it's not about talent. There are plenty of talented players out there who get hurt by lack of opportunity or depth charts. A player could have point-per-game potential, but given 13 mins a game, will he ever reach point-per-game? Probably not... (Chris Stewart's name pops into mind). For me, fantasy hockey is entirely a numbers game. At the end of the day, there's a finite amount of points/goals to be scored in the league. You don't get crazy NHL 13 numbers where teams average 5-6 goals a game. It generally settles around the 2.0-3.3 mark depending on the team. Some rare instances you might have the Caps of 09-10 where they reel off 3.82, but you also have to keep in mind that's the exception not the rule... The latest trend in the NHL is that the scoring is going down. If you bought the guide, I mention a bit about that in my projections article... The Pens are already at the top of the league averaging 3.33 goals per game, and posted 746 points as a team last campaign, which led the league by a fairly large margin (next closest was Philly at 710). If you look at the recent trends, the Pens have tallied 667, 706, 682, 618 and 746 last season, so I mean 746 is probably the "high end" of the totals anyway. Now if you consider the man games lost, Crosby, Staal, Letang and Malkin... that's where it allowed a Neal, Kunitz, Dupuis or Sullivan to "fill in" some of that production. Once you fill back those man games lost (Crosby wouldn't post 37 points if he played 82 games), the points will have to be taken away somewhere... The scenario that you mentioned could certainly take place, where they might up the production to say 3.5 goals per game, which then allows for another 100 points to be spread across the team, but keep in mind during the last 5 years, and 150 teams worth of data, there's only been [b]2[/b] teams (Detroit 08-09: 3.52, Caps 09-10: 3.82)), who have ever hit that mark. There has also been only [b]3[/b] teams that have hit the 3.33 that the Pens accomplished last campaign. My best guess is that Neal sees a regression and some of his points will be taken away from a healthy Crosby, while the team production remains similar... - Ryan Ma Sat, 06 Oct 2012 16:52:43 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/4946-enlightened-you-shall-be-2012#comment-22797 I agree with almost everything here. It is a really well written piece. However, I truly dont think James Neal should be on this list. He has excelled at every level hes played at. He led the whalers to the mem cup, he won under 18 gold and world junior gold. He was a standout in the AHL and has only become better as he has become accustomed to the league. You say that Malkin and Crosby healthy cuts his production? I say the penguins should equals their totals if not break them from last year and if Neal ends up on a second line lining up against second liners your going to see his production soar. Just my thoughts though like to see what you guys think - drostek6@hotmail.com Sat, 06 Oct 2012 11:47:48 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/4946-enlightened-you-shall-be-2012#comment-22796 My counter argument is how much more can the Sens' offense climb? In this day and age of declining offensive totals in the NHL, the Sens have already spiked their production given their roster set up. [b]They were the 4th highest offense in the league last campaign. [/b] I would argue that Green and the Caps peaked in total points because they had a trio (quartet if you count Semin) that really lit the NHL on fire offensively. I mean in the heyday between 08-10, they were averaging 3.27 and 3.82 goals per game. They had Ovechkin who was the most dangerous sniper in the league, and Backstrom who was an elite set up man. Their PP was also operating at 25.2 for both those seasons, which is a crazy number really when you're scoring in 1 in every 4 chances. Those are the reasons why Green was such a fantasy stud, the environment around him clicked and he flourished. Now the difference between the Caps (back in the day) and the Sens now, is that the Sens don't have an Ovechkin or Backstrom or Semin. They have Spezza (who's great, but not Backstrom in 2008-10...) and Michalek (60 points, once again no Ovechkin), Alfredsson (not really comparable to Semin)... So how or where do you think they'll increase that team point total to get them to sustain and better Karlsson's point output? Another major difference was scheduling... In 08-10 there was still a bit of unbalance in the league. the SE division was easily the worst, you had Atlanta (29th/25th) and TB (27th/27th) at the bottom of the league in terms of goals allowed, then you had Car (8th/26th) and Fla (10th/19th)... So that's a factor to consider why Green produced the numbers that he did. In 08-09 he lit up the SE division for 26 points in 20 games, in 09-10 he posted 21 in 22, so you would have to think scheduling and weakness in opponents played a major role in Green producing the numbers that he did. The NE is a different story, you have BOS (and their stingy D), Montreal (who was a bit leaky last season, but should be better with less injuries and of course they have Price), Buffalo (Ryan Miller...) and TO... So I mean it's not like the Sens have an "easy" division to play in, certainly not as easy as what the Caps had back in the day. As for Patches, don't get me wrong it's not about his ability, for me it was entirely the situation that he fell into last campaign. [i]"The other lines don't even come close"[/i], I would counter by saying well that's cause [b]they didn't have any other lines[/b], they were all hurt and on the IR. With Gomez and Gionta on the shelf, that basically thrusted the Patches-Desharnais-Cole into that major offensive role. So it's not surprising to see him have such nice totals because he was essentially given "star" ice-time and given a bigger chunk of the offensive pie. My question is with Gionta and Gomez healthy, Plekanec gets his line mates back and Bourque full time this year. Add in Galchenyuk (assuming he makes the team), the team around Max Pac is getting better, which should in theory diminish the offensive pie that he receives this season. Back to you! ;) - Ryan Ma Fri, 05 Oct 2012 16:11:06 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/4946-enlightened-you-shall-be-2012#comment-22792 Definitely a good job Ryan. You of course preemptively defended yourself regarding Karlsson and Patches and those are really my only disagreements. What's interesting about Karlsson is that his growth since the 2009/10 season has been a steady 73% and he's only 22. While I think there is no way his production continues that trend, I don't think we have seen his ceiling yet. His share of the teams points has also increased substantially going from 4 to 9 to 12% in the last 3 seasons. While I think that you may not see that % climb higher I think the sens total team output will increase. If you look at Mike Greens' Caps, they peaked in total points when he peaked and they subsequently dropped, it's interesting to see his points and the caps points increase from 07/08 to 09/10. In the case of such pivitol offensive D where they literally QB the offense every second they are on the ice I think you will find a stronger coorelation between total team output and that players output. For Patches, I don't have much of a quantitative discourse but as a Habs fan I have seen the Patches-Deharnais-Cole line cement themselves as the top line in MTL. The other lines don't even come close. Do I think they overreached? No, why? I have some confidence in the chemestry between Deharnais and Patches since the tandem was very successful when they were both in Hamilton and they translated that quite seemlessly into the NHL when they were given the shot. I was waiting for Martin to make the move but for whatever reason he prefers to line juggle endlessly without notice of prior chemestry. Also, Patches and Cole play a very similar shoot first and crash the net style that works very well together I think mainly because of their speed. I say this because even if/when Cole regresses, I think you can inject another winger into the eqeuation without really affecting Patches since IMO he doesnt depend on Cole directly for production. Ok I'm done... - aleco83 Fri, 05 Oct 2012 08:00:21 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/4946-enlightened-you-shall-be-2012#comment-22791 Thanks for the positive comments boys! Always greatly appreciated - Ryan Ma Thu, 04 Oct 2012 23:13:50 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/4946-enlightened-you-shall-be-2012#comment-22790 You know the one - slam dunk, or 3 pointer and nothing but net, kinda thing. This might be the one you really nailed. - Shoeless Thu, 04 Oct 2012 21:29:23 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/4946-enlightened-you-shall-be-2012#comment-22788 Sorry Ryan, The expression is "free rein", as in allowing a horse to move without direction ie no direction from the reins. Now this doesn't mean that you can't string together two words such as "free" and "reign" and not convey something intelligent, but that was clesrly not your intention here. Everybody, brother, has lacunae. Me, I'm always happy to find and correct them. Smile, say thanks and mean it - my approach. rattus - rattus rattus Thu, 04 Oct 2012 18:42:37 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/4946-enlightened-you-shall-be-2012#comment-22787 I'm getting really annoyed that there's nothing here for me to disagree with. It's like you are in my brain. Really, really fantastic list. Read it twice. Agreed with it twice. Another gem. 10/10. - Pengwin7 Thu, 04 Oct 2012 18:18:46 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/4946-enlightened-you-shall-be-2012#comment-22786 http://www.dailywritingtips.com/free-rein-or-free-reign/ I guess both are acceptable, with rein being "more correct" - Ryan Ma Thu, 04 Oct 2012 15:38:01 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/4946-enlightened-you-shall-be-2012#comment-22785 The thing is because we're lucky to be part of the "Dobber Community" we're exposed to tons of quality info everyday, whether it be from the daily columns, the forums or Dobber's/Angus' ramblings... So I think we're pretty knowledged up in terms of where's value and what isn't. We're on a whole much more informed about fantasy hockey than regular joes who are just starting to visit the site. If you are looking at just straight Yahoo! O-Ranks. Backes has slipped down to 36, Backstrom is down to 41. Getz is a whopping 95, Gabby 136 (but that's probably because of off-season shoulder surgery worries). So if someone who hasn't participated in mock drafts yet and are entering fresh, I probably wouldn't be surprised to see these guys go where they are ranked. More knowledgeable poolies of course will take advantage of this and personalise their rankings. Nash is certainy very polarizing... Many poolies think big things for him, many think he'll flop. The thing for me is as long as you keep expectations in check, he still has plenty of value. G- 30 (ranked tied for 25th last season) A- 29 (ranked tied for 108th) +/- -19, but to me that's always a fickle stat, -19 last year, he could go +19 this year... PIM- 40 (a decent total, to help pad the stat, it's not like Datsyuk's 14) PPP- 19 (tied for 49th) SOG- 306 (tied for 4th) So I mean when you take into consideration that he did this all playing in Columbus, him moving to a more structured system with Torts in NY, his numbers should improve... Is he a clearcut advantegeous alternative to Neal? Probably not, but is he a viable alternative, I'd say so... I actually looked at that for several minutes while proof reading, and debated about with or without g... I shoulda Google searched it hahaha. Thanks for the fix up! - Ryan Ma Thu, 04 Oct 2012 15:28:58 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/915-maasquito-bites/4946-enlightened-you-shall-be-2012#comment-22784 Nice work, Ryan. You do a great job of explaining quantitatively and qualitatively why these players are overrated, and I agree with all of your choices. However I am surprised at some of the players you propose as better selections at a given draft position. Maybe it's just my league, but I would be very surprised to find Nicklas Backstrom available at the 41st pick, Ryan Getzlaf at 87th, or Marian Gaborik at 89th. On the other side of the coin, I would feel as if I were reaching to take Rick Nash at 15th overall, although I know many are projecting great things for him on the Rangers. A minor note that I only mention because your excellent ideas and analyses deserve to be shown in the best light: Cory Schneider would be given "free rein," not "free reign" if Luongo sat the bench. - Hey_Robbie Thu, 04 Oct 2012 11:55:06 +0100