Comments for The Geek of the Week: PK Subban at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 5 out of 5 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Thu, 20 Jun 2013 07:34:30 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/916-geek-of-the-week/4900-the-geek-of-the-week-pk-subban#comment-22573 Horrorfan wasn't arguing that the value isn't there on paper - what he was saying is if you take Subban in the first round based on that value alone, then you are likely to get your ass handed to you on a platter. And I agree with him. Any rating of a player that is seriously inflated based on a single category (Garrison comes to mind) in the FHG needs to be discounted somehow. I would apply the position equivalency tool to determine how much of a discount I would apply - graphing a player against the equivalency numbers curve for his position while not a perfect process would certainly highlight spikes in categories where you want to knock off the top of the spike to create a better picture of the player's across the board value. The FHG system is a beaut because it does so much to quantify values through the rating system based on a pretty decent set of predictive stats, but what it can't do is handle the strategic processes needed to compete in a high level league - not yet anyway. Yes, it can feed you ratings that assist in your strategy to build a winning team, but there are other considerations. - Shoeless Sat, 15 Sep 2012 23:55:00 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/916-geek-of-the-week/4900-the-geek-of-the-week-pk-subban#comment-22572 Firstly, I was probably a bit harsh when I called it laughable so I apologise. But I still question calling him first round value. Yes, I understand that even though PIM are easier to find but having a PIM heavy, moderately offensive defenseman has signficant value, that's as far as I will go. Even the 'elite' guys like Chara and Weber, I would not consider them first round value. My point is that even though they have strength in multiple categories, I don't consider PIM as significant when determining their value - personal opinion. So, perhaps I'm suggesting that the FHG value shouldn't value PIM as highly as other categories, but that is a whole other discussion so I will leave it there. Furthermore, when you mention how close he is to the 'elite' on a weekly basis, I would argue that many players are close when you look at them this way, especially defensemen. Admittedly, I don't have the numbers to back up that statement, so if you do and can counter and correct me then I'll admit I'm wrong. Looking at it category by category, he may be close on a weekly basis, but he's still weaker in three of the six categories (goals, PPP and +/-). Until he improves those numbers, he's not up there yet. But as mentioned in my previous post, I agree that once he picks up the offense, he'll join the next tier. Actually, I don't look at names when evaluating players, as Shoeless suggested, I am analytical and I do focus on the numbers. That being said, please don't let my critiques de-value the quality of your post. It is a solid piece and it's great that you are highlighting players that you feel are undervalued. I never touched on the fact that he's been drafted 85th on average and yes, he should likely be drafted earlier. Good work, and I look forward to future pieces. - horrorfan Sat, 15 Sep 2012 23:10:30 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/916-geek-of-the-week/4900-the-geek-of-the-week-pk-subban#comment-22571 Hey guys, great to see some feedback on my first article on Dobbersports. Shoeless: I think you hit the nail on the head multiple times: "It is very clear to me that you are suggesting that Subban presents great value in the 4th or 5th", is one sentence that I think most accurately sums up what I am trying to get at. The intent of my article(s) and the FHG website - is to identify players who are under/over valued - so that you can draft accordingly and win your pool. The way to win at fantasy hockey is to gain value - if you can get a guy in round 4, who is worth round 2 then you are (as Sheen would say) winning. Horrofan: you are clearly an experienced pooler, and you obviously have a deeper understanding of value than your average GM. The very fact that you pointed out Chara and Weber as "elite" fantasy defencemen, proves that you know your stuff. There are only 3 defencemen that Fantasy Hockey Geek has rated above Subban, and you named 2 of them. So how can I prove to you that PK is at least in their class? Let's take a look at last year: PK had 205 shots. Weber had 230 But Subban had 119 PIMs to Weber's 46 Weber had 30 assists. PK had 29 (and it was a DOWN year for PK!!) Weber wins out in goals, but it works out to less than 1 goal per week. Don't get me wrong, I would probably take Weber over Subban - but it's actually close! You say that PIMs are more easily found than other categories...and I agree! What isn't easily found is somebody that is good in PIMs as well as the other cats - like PK is. That's why he is so valuable. Yes, I can find PIMs....but can I find PIMs from a D-man who gets 200 shots and 40 points?? No. There aren't many - and PK is one (maybe the only one). Don't get mesmerized by the names. It's the stats that matter. TC - TBone076 Sat, 15 Sep 2012 17:54:26 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/916-geek-of-the-week/4900-the-geek-of-the-week-pk-subban#comment-22568 First off, congrats Terry on landing what I consider to be one of the tastiest writing gigs at Dobbersports. I'm really looking forward to reading what you have to say about one of my favorite FH resources. A Geek of the Week column is a great idea and I think you picked a winner in profiling Subban to kick it off. As a Subban owner in an expanded category keeper league, I totally agree that there is a significant gap between his perceived value and his real value in fantasy leagues. Not sure what Horrorfan was reading when he implied that you called Subban a late first round pick - what I am reading is that the numbers indicate that he has the value of a later first round pick and that is valid and hardly laughable. It is very clear to me that you are suggesting that Subban presents great value in the 4th or 5th round and given how a particular draft has gone for you - that his selection at that time could in fact translate into a steal. Horrorfan is a tremendous analyst particularly when it comes to roto-type leagues and he does have several points worth considering here when it comes to using FHG - the chief among them is that taking FHG values at face value without considering: team needs as the draft develops, or abundance and scarcity, or a player's expected draft position, etc., is not the wisest move, as I am sure you are going to reveal to us as you plow deeper into the other tools available on FHG. I'm going to give you an A here - this article simply and cleanly presents the idea that FPG presents a rating tool that quantifies the value of players in any given league when you set your league up on the site. It pinpoints player values relative to others and that information if used prudently can be a real advantage in drafting or trading. Clearly you have pointed to Subban as an undervalued pick at 85th in the example league and these are things poolies need to have a grasp on when the cheese binds. - Shoeless Sat, 15 Sep 2012 15:08:31 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/916-geek-of-the-week/4900-the-geek-of-the-week-pk-subban#comment-22566 Welcome and a good piece. However, where I disagree is that where you say that every category should be treated the same. Sure, in fantasy each category has equal value, but not every category is as easily found in the draft or on FA. The reason why Subban and a guy like Hartnell are so high in these rankings are due to their inflated PIM totals. I would argue that PIM are easier to find than the offensive ones, and thus, should not be given equal (or higher) value. That being said, I understand the value of the multiple category contributor. I've played in several leagues so managers do need to recognise where there is value. But to call Subban a late first round pick is laughable. I do find FHG's ranking system helpful to show that different players have different values given their strengths and weaknesses in multiple categories, and that pure offensive players are not always the best choice. However, one must understand the other factors involved (e.g. replacement category filler, team structure/need) and it should not always be taken at face value. Subban is not a first round pick. Nor is Hartnell. I do agree that given his peripheral strength, once he picks up his offensive game he'll get closer to the more elite fantasy defensemen (e.g. Chara, Weber). But until then, he is still a mid-round pick. - horrorfan Sat, 15 Sep 2012 11:47:48 +0100