Comments for August 17, 2012 at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 11 out of 11 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Thu, 23 May 2013 20:20:58 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4839-august-17-2012#comment-22197 Penguin hit the nail on the head - Nate Fri, 17 Aug 2012 13:11:49 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4839-august-17-2012#comment-22196 Bone and austeane have nailed it. for example: knowing that Feaster's flames are into stats is great. knowing if Bob Hartley will give a shit... better. - ultrawhiteness Fri, 17 Aug 2012 10:37:35 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4839-august-17-2012#comment-22195 I agree with everyone! Yes, they are informative. No, they do not nessecarily predict change. What they CAN help to tell you is whether or not there was a fluke season involved. When the Sedins had their first huge season, it was thought to be a major fluke and couldn't possibly happen again. If someone had looked at advanced statistics and seen the jump... They would have rightfully predicted that the Sedins could repeat their performance... And voila! Another Art Ross. If however they had had the same breakout season but their zone starts hadn't changed considerably and their PDO was off the charts, a call for major regression would have probably been on the mark. To me, that is pretty valuable. After the draft is where things get interesting. 10 games in when the next Phil Kesslel is tearing up the league, (or Staal is Giving new meaning to the word "slump") you can look to advanced statistics to see whether their unusual pace will sustain itself (new teammates taking the first pairing D off their backs, better linemates, new coach and higher OZone starts) or if there will be a regression (PDO and other luck measuring stats). In a one year league, you could have traded Kessel for Staal++++++++ halfway through the year and done pretty well for youself, all because of advanced stats. It might be impossible to predict a Sedinian breakout before the season... After the season starts though, that is a different matter entirely. - austeane Fri, 17 Aug 2012 09:56:54 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4839-august-17-2012#comment-22194 Great debate on Advance Stats guys. As a huge stat guy myself, I am always looking for ways to give my fantasy teams a leg up, basically be being better than the rest of the teams in my league at math. I would tend to agree with aspects of both Angus and Pengwin's arguments. Angus rightfully points out how advanced stats can help us explain why the Sedin's saw a point increase with increased zone starts. That is undeniable. But so what? It already happened. After the Sedins saw their point boost, the rest of the managers in my pool are ready to start treating them like 100 point players too. The fact that I know WHY they are 100 point players, isn't necessarily helping me to win my pool. I think that is what Pengwin is getting at. The challenge with the advanced stats is, being able to use them to predict future changes to a players production - not just explain past changes. We are trying ot be ahead of the curve here. That's how you win pools. For that reason, I personally love PDO and also comparing players' shooting%, with career averages. Both of these help to predict future changes, as well as decide whether or not last season's point boosts are sustainable. Angus' Nino N example is perfect. The Corsi and offensive zone starts etc are great to know....but they will only really help me to draft a better fantasy team, if I have some reason to believe that the number will change in the coming year. So for guys that have changed teams, or coaches - then yes...this would help. But for the rest of the league? meh. I don't care how many offensive zone starts Datsyuk got last year, because he will probably get the same amount this year - so the impact on his year over year point production is nil. Now if you could tell me that Datsyuk got 40% offensive zone starts last year, but WILL get 60% next year....then that is some information that is pure gold. That's where the application of advanced stats needs to get to, and that's when it really is valuable. On the other hand - Angus telling me why the Sedins hit 100 AFTER I neglected to draft them...doesn't really help. Great points by everyone. I think that there is no question that Advanced Stats is the real deal in hockey and fantasy alike. The question will be how and when to use them, to move your team to the top. Bone. - Bone Fri, 17 Aug 2012 09:01:07 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4839-august-17-2012#comment-22193 "@Aldo - I think the Sedins would actually agree with Angus that zone starts made them Art Ross contenders. Pre-Vignault they were highly skilled point per game players. Post-Vignault and his zone start philosophy they were 100+ point players contending for an Art Ross. Not to say they aren't highly skilled hard working players to start but there is a reason they suddenly made a huge jump at 28 after everyone assumed they had plateaued as 80-85 point players. Vancouver as a team has really used advanced statistics and zone starts to its advantage, the whole we created value in Hodgson to dump him for a better player speech." Bingo. Thanks for clarifying my point. Aldo - these stats are widely used by all teams. They aren't gimmicks. It will catch on in fantasy hockey - some will take longer than others because they are more "old school." I prefer not to discount anything and I have done a lot of research and work to understand and utilize these stats in my own projections, and for the guide work as well. If you understand things like Corsi, PDO, Zone starts, and QualComp, they will help you win pools. I guarantee that. David - I agree that they require more thought and analysis. And people (some, at least) aren't willing to put the time in. That is fine. I hope my work in the guide can help break down some situations of note around the league. Aldo - I 100% believe that zone starts is the driving force behind the Sedins going from 80 to 100 point players. Imagine starting close to 80 percent of your shifts in the offensive zone, compared to 55 or 60 percent? Think of how many more scoring chances would be generated. That sort of thing. - angus Fri, 17 Aug 2012 07:59:34 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4839-august-17-2012#comment-22191 I am a huge fan of advanced statistics and agree with Angus that their impact on fantasy sports and spotting potential breakout performance is huge. They do require a lot more thought and analysis than traditional statistics which will make it harder for them to become mainstream but they provide some useful sleeper and underperformer candidates to take late in drafts. There is a lot of room for error in interpreation of the statistics and Angus has mentioned this before that you need to compare statsistics against career numbers and not a baseline. Some players can never live up to the production their advanced stats tell you they should so you need to look at their career baseline and the deviations in the statistics and production for an accurate picture. @Aldo - I think the Sedins would actually agree with Angus that zone starts made them Art Ross contenders. Pre-Vignault they were highly skilled point per game players. Post-Vignault and his zone start philosophy they were 100+ point players contending for an Art Ross. Not to say they aren't highly skilled hard working players to start but there is a reason they suddenly made a huge jump at 28 after everyone assumed they had plateaued as 80-85 point players. Vancouver as a team has really used advanced statistics and zone starts to its advantage, the whole we created value in Hodgson to dump him for a better player speech. - davidgoodburn Fri, 17 Aug 2012 07:18:04 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4839-august-17-2012#comment-22190 Thanks again for all your great insights Angus and team. A couple thoughts to share: The likelihood that the NHL will contract teams with NHLPA consent is very unlikely. Two fewer teams means less jobs for their members. That is rarely in the best interest of a Union. Fewer teams also means less revenue and less opportunity for revenue growth. It's fewer tickets being sold, fewer fans going to Dobberhockey.com, and less eyeballs watching hockey games on TV. Adding two Canadian teams will likely only happen if: 1) There is more money to be made in a small market Canadian town (or 2nd team in Toronto after paying off Leafs and Sabres) than a big American city or 2) A Canadian Billion does not care about return on investment and wants a trophy team in a small city. - ZarlyZalapski Fri, 17 Aug 2012 07:06:59 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4839-august-17-2012#comment-22189 This article was total fantasy and fell apart at the first hurdle when he wanted to contract the league by 2 teams and move 2 more to Canada. Never going to happen as part of a CBA negotitations, if at all, so why base your whole idea on it? - UKflames Fri, 17 Aug 2012 06:46:28 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4839-august-17-2012#comment-22188 I think I see what pengwin is saying. This is all really interesting stuff. But I don't believe that these statistics are as crucial as you imply. Using the word "huge" makes it sound as if they are, well, huge. They're not. Quite honestly, I think you're just getting excited about a novel idea and way of analysis that will never catch on. Also, if you truly think that the PRIMARY reason the Sedin's became Art Ross winners is because they saw more offensive zone starts, well, you're buying into this stuff a little too much. I would love to see how they would respond if you told them that. - AldoWeldon Fri, 17 Aug 2012 06:39:18 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4839-august-17-2012#comment-22187 I'll disagree with your disagreement. As recently as three or four years ago, I was primarily a qualitative evaluator. I have used more statistics and metrics over the past two years, to greater fantasy success. There are two sides to the coin - these advanced stats will never replace the art of watching hockey, but it adds dimensions that are often missed. And yes, in the case of Voracek, it is clear to see why he may improve. How about how the Sedin twins became Art Ross scorers? Primarily because they saw significantly more offensive zone starts. How about why Brandon Sutter will fit in Pittsburgh? Well, because he saw really tough minutes and started less than 40 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone with Carolina. PDO is a fantastic indicator of breakout performances, as it essentially measures luck. When Nino Niederreiter was on the ice last season, the Islanders scored two goals on close to 250 shots. Niederreiter struggled a lot, but he also was a victim of some seriously bad luck. And you can make the argument that he was skating with non scorers, but that is an absurdly low shooting percentage for any player. What do you mean by me being thoroughly invested in them? I simply wrote a few columns and included a new section in the guide. These stats won't take away from how I watch hockey, but they will add to it. Filling in the missing pieces that used to be unquantifiable, if you will. I am also of the ilk that actual value and fantasy value are not mutually exclusive. A lot of times performance indicators in real life lead to a fantasy break out (better performance against tougher competition leads to more ice time or more offensive responsibilities, that sort of thing). - angus Fri, 17 Aug 2012 06:14:43 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4839-august-17-2012#comment-22186 [i]Again, I know some don’t understand or care to understand advanced statistics, but the fantasy hockey relevance is [b]huge[/b]. Being able to accurately evaluate and project past and future performance is much easier with these accurate measures, instead of going off “hunches” and “gut instincts,” and limited stats like plus/minus.[/i] From what I understand (as a math guy) most of these new metrics are very telling towards actual NHL player value. Two-way NHL player value. They take into account things like line-matching. However, I'd strongly argue that these metrics do NOT have a HUGE impact on fantasy hockey. Top things that are going to impact fantasy hockey statistics: #1. TOI increase/decrease #2. Linemates #3. Likelihood of statistical correction, especially SH% & PPP. Winning fantasy hockey pools is about getting better performance out of a player versus what you paid (drafted/traded) for him. For now, I think I'm going to have to call you on this "HUGE" impact of metrics on fantasy hockey. You need to start citing players that are going to break out and the metric that you are basing this on. Personally, I think citing Jakub Voracek's opportunity to: 1) See increased PP time 2) Play with Giroux 3) Receive tastier passes that will result in better SH% is enough. Mix in one big spoonful of actually watching NHL hockey and you've got 90% of the tools you need to succeed in fantasy hockey. It seems you are giving these metrics a lot of props because you are invested yourself so throughly in them. Sometimes it's OK to spend some time researching something and then turn and say "Well... I do not believe this is as valuable to my occupation as I had hoped". And - if these metrics are so helpful - I suppose it is a certainty that you will dominate several one-year leagues this year. ;) (Good political work, let's see some results.) - Pengwin7 Fri, 17 Aug 2012 05:37:30 +0100