Comments for July 19, 2012 at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 19 out of 19 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Sat, 25 May 2013 03:44:23 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21887 I wouldnt match..and I would gladly take the 4 first rounders...I think if you trust your scouts then you should end up with assets that surpass the ability of weber. Plus no one is sure how much Weber was aided by Suter. Wasnt something about that posted not too long ago? Something about the Preds record without one of Suter and/or Weber and they were worse off without Suter? - buck0198 Thu, 19 Jul 2012 18:45:35 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21885 If the Preds match and can't trade him in the first year, and the 1st year is worth 26 millions, there is no way they trade him in a year. They will have to walk away, or match and keep him for a long, long while to make that early "investment" worthwhile. I predict they walk away... - Anze Thu, 19 Jul 2012 16:26:09 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21884 Holmgren certainly has a way to make friends . I wonder how many doors a move like this can close for a GM in the near future ... - poolsharks Thu, 19 Jul 2012 15:57:23 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21883 I don't like the idea that Green and Ovechkin are implying how Oats will/should coach . It's as if they are almost suggesting that he should do it their way . Not saying that this wouldn't be a good thing for the team as I love offense but I always thought that too many players on that team including these two are major prima donas ... - poolsharks Thu, 19 Jul 2012 15:54:57 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21881 Green's Corsi ratings are actually quite good. The reason I included the Corsi Rel QoC wasn't to defend him, but to show how he has always seen sheltered minutes. The difference has been lack of PP time and declining o-zone starts. - angus Thu, 19 Jul 2012 13:19:21 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21880 The deal is designed specifically to break the cash-strapped Preds, who are owned by a consortium and had trouble scraping up loans a while back ... meanwhile gazillionaire Snider has money to burn. Sure the $8M caphit helps get to the floor, but it's the $24M the have to pay in year 1 and nearly $60M the first 4 that are the issue for the small market club. This is a predatory move on the Preds, make no mistake. - tripel Thu, 19 Jul 2012 12:47:37 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21879 Aren't the Preds $15 million below the cap floor? If they don't match who are they going to spend that money on? Alex Semin? - Aaron27 Thu, 19 Jul 2012 11:31:40 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21878 Hey Jeff- Nice job with the Green article. However I do have some questions about the stats, or maybe your explanation and interpretation of them. If I understand you, you say that you are using Corsi Rel QoC as a proxy for zone time, and then use the graphs to support your argument that Green played easy minutes the last few years. However he had a very low Corsi Rel QoC relative to his teammates each year, which would normally indicate a lot of time in the defensive zone, which I would think would go along with tougher minutes. Alternatively, the low Corsi Rel QoC could just be due to being bad enough defensively to give up lots of opportunities (not unimaginable in Green's case), or bad enough offensively to not be generating any opportunities (not how most would think of Green). Most likely, in my opinion, the reason for Green's low numbers is that he faced such easy competition that even though he had a decent Corsi, the Corsi Rel QoC still came out low. Is that what we should understand from the data provided? If so, maybe just giving the Corsi graphs would show Green's easy minutes more clearly. As it is, the graphs seem like they say the opposite of what I think you mean. - Hey_Robbie Thu, 19 Jul 2012 11:24:55 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21875 I would definitely match Weber. Assuming they would in deed draft guys like Oshie, Giroux, Pacioretty, Eberle or Neal, Varlamov, Smith, Carlson. That of course would be tremendous but... lets look at it the other way around and see them ending up with guys like Foligno, Petrecki, Nemisz, Caron Wishart, Esposito, Leveille, Moore That wouldn't seem to be a very good return!!! The develop time is also a factor to consider… take a guy like Jon Blum developing in the Nashville system, drafted in 2007. That’s five years already and he isn’t a fully established pro yet. Let say for instance he become an true bonafide star blueliner like Weber in 3 years… that means it took him 8 years to develop. A pretty long wait for a potential return. If Nashville go the draft pick route… don’t expect any return between 4 to 10 years if any. Pretty risky!!! - Beejer Thu, 19 Jul 2012 09:50:40 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21874 It IS necessarily luck IMO. It isn't luck in the way that they might just look at a guy and say uh maybe he will be good... So lets uh... take him in the first round! Its luck in the sense that every team knows about the same amount about each prospect and each team's drafting "skill" is generally decently close. There can be good drafting teams and bad drafting teams but the difference isn't really that great. - austeane Thu, 19 Jul 2012 09:18:31 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21873 @austeane It is cherry picking, but it also shows that great drafting comes a long way. It's not necessarily luck. There are a great players drafted after the 20th overall pick and if you get 4 chance to do it in 4 years in a row, I say the odds that you will eventually replace Weber are good. - yougo Thu, 19 Jul 2012 07:49:16 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21872 Angus The deal is 14 years, 110 mil. Not 100 mil. A 7.86 cap hit. 27 mil in first calendar year according to Kypreos. 1 mil in each of the last three years... NHL will at least look at it. Yougo And I get [i]your[/i] point but that is cherry picking. You could do that every year. And I could pick 4 busts. That is pointless. I meant look at a specific set of pick numbers in a single year (or over 4 years). Look at the 20th, 21st, 22nd and 29th picks of every draft since 2000 (arbitrary number) and there is probably only one or two drafts where it would be worth trading Shea Weber for those players (one at each 18, 17, 16 and 15 years old). @Bob. They may have no choice. If they bomb this year, Weber may ask for a trade. I think he would get more then 4 first round picks. - austeane Thu, 19 Jul 2012 06:52:47 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21871 Jeff, you state that Nashville could keep Weber for a year and then trade him, Really ? They will pay 16 % of THE TOTAL FRANCHISE WORTH to one player and THEN trade him...That will not happen, He will go to the Flyers and Nashville will return the picks for players OR Nashville will match and KEEP HIM.. But sign and trade in a year..NO !! - BOB SOLORIO Thu, 19 Jul 2012 06:16:09 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21869 @austeane I get your point, but watch this. Let's say the Flyers had done this in 2004. So in 2005,2006,2007,2008. The Preds had 4 picks, all after the #20 overall. 2005 Entry draft. #24 overall - T.J. Oshie #33 overall - James Neal 2006 Entry draft. #22 Overall - Claude Giroux #23 Overall - Semyon Varlamov #25 overall - Patrick Berglund 2007 Entry Draft #22 Overall - Max Pacioretty #26 overall - David Perron #27 Overall - Brendan Smith 2008 Entry Draft #22 overall - Jordan Eberle #27 overall - John Carlson #31 overall - Jacob Markstrom You tell me that you wouldn't trade Weber for one player for each of these years? I'd definitely trade Weber for Oshie,Giroux,Pacioretty,Eberle or for Neal,Varlamov,Smith,Carlson. This could turn out to be a very good thing for both clubs if the Preds draft well. - yougo Thu, 19 Jul 2012 05:37:18 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21868 No specifics are out on the contract yet but a lot of rumors are its front loaded. Anyone think Nashville might be calling the league about the contract circumventing the cap before deciding anything? - jester240 Thu, 19 Jul 2012 04:19:54 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21867 From my fantasy guide - Ward's fortunes turned around with a game on December 21. His number from that game forward are remarkable. - Dobber Thu, 19 Jul 2012 03:36:58 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21866 Tatar won't be on the team. Nyquist will. And if you have to pick a runner up, it would be Brunner IMO. But yes, Nyquist could surprise. Smith too. I don't count out Detroit. - Dobber Thu, 19 Jul 2012 03:36:06 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21865 Just to clarify once and for all.... IT IS 4 FIRST ROUNDERS It is calculated by dividing the total salary paid by at the most, the first 5 years. This was done to counteract frontloaded deals having a low compensation package. Weber, for compensation purposes at least, has a $20 mil cap hit. This is a crazy move... I heard that negotiations were taking a while and Holmgren got tired of waiting so made the move. I wonder why he didn't tell Polie that he was going to do that or maybe Polie just didn't believe him. Since Weber is an FA, I am assuming he can talk to whomever he wants. I wonder if he really wants to go to Philly or just get out of Nashville. I wonder if he reached out to his preferred team (let's say Vancouver) right before signing and said "Hey, I am about to sign an offer sheet with Philly, it would be awesome to play there, especially if Pronger comes back but I would love to play in Vancouver, I would sign an offer-sheet with you first." I would do that if I were him. Holmgren doesn't hold enough cards to hold him hostage by saying the offer will be rescinded if he talks elsewhere first... If this was a uber-rich owner, big-market team the decision would be obvious to keep him. Find me a single draft where the 20th, 21st, 22nd and 29th picks (I believe the last four picks by the flyers) would be worth trading for Weber. Best 6 dmen right now if Weber is gone: Gill-Klein Blum-Ellis Josi-Ekholm Wow. The fact is that Nashville won't spend to the cap and if the reports of 26mil in the first calendar year are true... They won't be spending much over the floor if they keep him. On the other hand, I don't think that the Nashville market can survive an Edmonton/Chicago/Pittsburg rebuild. Pittsburg almost got relocated and I don't know how much stronger a market Nashville is. They just recently started to get some widespread passion going. I feel bad for Nashville and its fans... Suter, Weber (or being hamstrung), Radulov and Kostitsyn... ____________________________________________ Every year we think that Detroit will fall off a cliff but every year they prove us wrong. We will see if Tatar, B. Smith and the like can keep this going post-Lidstrom. ______________ For Vancouver... I think that patience might be the right move for Gillis. If Luongo agrees to be backup for the season on the condition that Gillis will guarantee trading him, even if it is for a bag of pucks, I think the packages will get more enticing as the season goes on. Some of these tenuous goaltending things have to fall through... Maybe bryz just plain sucks outside the desert and didn't have a bad year. Reimer falls on his face... Or actually falls on his face, gets injured and is out for the year... Howard plays with the same stats for an entire year as he did when Lidstrom was gone next year. Makstrom has another couple of surgeries and Theodore is below average while the rest of the team does well. By the trade deadline (or sooner), it is conceivable that MG could actually get Huberdeau like value from an ultra desperate team for Luongo. If everyone on the Canucks side (including Luongo) is fine with it, that might be a smart move for MG. They could also be waiting for some Versteeg developments. Has he filed for arbitration? ___________ Good performance, but if you took out the first and last month of play for Luongo (October and April or may or June)... I think someone looked into it and he would have the best goalie stats of all time. - austeane Wed, 18 Jul 2012 23:06:43 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/other-features-mainmenu-89/archived-ramblings/4779-july-19-2012#comment-21863 I'd be shocked if the Preds didnt match, somewhat surprised it was Philly that made the offer, but if they have Weber in their lineup- even if the compensation is 4-1st rounders- theyre bound to be late picks.(It used to be 5 1st round picks, and their were fewer teams drafting then). Not sure how this works with the cap- they must be assuming Pronger isnt coming back, but dont they have to wait till game 1 to put him on the LTI? I thought thats what the Canucks had to do with Salo previously (and the Bruins with Savard), the players cap hit is still in effect when they set their rosters. Anyone able to clear that up? Meszaros is their only dman without some kind of NTC and the recently signed Gervais would lose his roster spot most likely as Lilja's contract falls in the 35+ category. They still have Voracek to resign, and likely another forward albeit at minimum salary. Paul Holmgren has himself a pair. - Rollie1967 Wed, 18 Jul 2012 22:01:04 +0100