Comments for Kovalchuk and Advanced Stats at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 7 out of 7 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Thu, 23 May 2013 18:38:02 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/eric-maltais/4466-kovalchuk-and-advanced-stats#comment-19826 @ David Goodburn In addition to such things as health, PP/PK time, linemates, number of shots and quality of competition faced are more or less equal from the previous year, I tend to look at if a player's shooting percentage varies significantly from his [b]career [/b]mark. I also look to see if his on-ice save percentage at even strength varies greatly from [b]years past[/b]. If a player is placed in the same situation he did just one year ago and isn't getting the results, something is amiss. - Mike Schmidt Thu, 08 Mar 2012 07:13:17 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/eric-maltais/4466-kovalchuk-and-advanced-stats#comment-19825 Hi Mike, Great article. I agree with you that luck does play a role in on ice production in terms of incredibly high and unsustainable SH% or SV%(just ask Steve Mason what a little luck can do for a career). It is no real surprise to me to see 2 NYR at the top of this year's list given Lundqvist's SV% dominance. Do I have to do a team baseline then compare players on that team to it to determine a one year league luck that maybe I can capitalize on? I am thinking here that Eric Stall would have had a low PDO at the start of this year and since then the "market correction" has normalized his stats a bit. But I would guess certain players Ialways score quite low on this despite elite production. I am thinking here of a guy like Zetterberg who has atrociuos SH% numbers every year so likely comes out under 1.00 on the scale. I guess my question is what is teh best way to use this in a one year league to take advantage of this stat? - David Goodburn Thu, 08 Mar 2012 06:42:55 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/eric-maltais/4466-kovalchuk-and-advanced-stats#comment-19823 @ Pengwin7 First and foremost, I appreciate the response. You are one of the smartest commenters on the hockey and baseball site. A few points: 1.I should have been more clear in the article. All of the PDOs are for even-strength. That levels the playing field. You can't compare the PDOs of guys who see a ton of PP time with those who don't. That would skew the numbers considerably. 2. Some players are better shooters than others. This is undeniable. But look at Kovy's shooting percentages in Atlanta. One year it's .120, the next it is .161, the next it is .125, the next it is .184. Two of those years he was a 50-goal scorer. The other two years he was a 40-goal scorer. I'd argue luck plays a significant role in shooting. 3. I do agree with even-strength production/minute as a valuable stat. That's a good call on your part. 4. Hockey is not baseball, for sure. But I think there's some value in this stat. I take it into consideration when evaluating players on my rosters. For the majority of players, the stat is less relevant because their PDOs aren't overwhelmingly high or low. But a 60-point swing for Kovalchuk from one year to the next caught my eye. Again, bad luck wasn't the only factor. Thanks for your feedback! - Mike Schmidt Thu, 08 Mar 2012 05:06:04 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/eric-maltais/4466-kovalchuk-and-advanced-stats#comment-19822 I love, love, love metrics. And I love the number crunching here. Very solid. Overall though, I wouldn't point to PDO as an important statistic. You're overvaluing it, IMO. 1. NHL elite players like Kovalchuk are pure snipers. Watch these players in warm-ups, or the NHL shooting competition. If these guys have >1 second of control time, they'll put a puck on a 8" diameter target. Luck plays a very small part of shooting. 2. An analysis of SH% coupled with a player's linemates/team is sufficient. With Parise & Henrique, Kovalchuk is getting more passes onto his stick = more SOG = more scoring. 3. People always blah-blah-Atlanta-bad-team, but those were some fantastic PP units while Kovy was there. Marc Savard, Kozlov, Hossa/Heatley, Enstrom. Very good players. Kovalchuk typically put up [u]30PPP as a minimum in Atlanta[/u]... which means that a good percentage of his scoring was PP-based, which is higher scoring rate altogether. I'm not sure if PDO is simply even-strength based... but a player's SH% is going (typically) be better on the PP and goalies SV% will be lower. Whether this PDO will also work out to 1.000 for Kovalchuk is important - as he bombs a lot of his shots on the PP. (I didn't see a separation of production for Kovy, ES vs. PP, which would/could have been telling, IMO) You've got several statements in here that I find to be, well, misleading. 1. [i]Furthermore, his PDO of 1.035 in 2009-10 may help explain his career-best plus-minus of 10 (the first season in which he finished as a plus player in his entire career).[/i] Or... contract year? +/- is all about hockey smarts, focus & effort (Landeskog?). Any player is capable of this, even Kovalchuk, if he knows his next contract depends on it. We've all seen Kovalchuk put effort, and PK, from time-to-time. I'm a big Kovalchuk-hater, mostly because he regresses to lazy hockey without effort to backcheck... which I hate. 2. [i]Understanding PDO and its ability to suggest if luck has had an effect on a player’s performance can significantly help with individual player evaluation. It’s just one of many factors fantasy hockey enthusiasts need to consider, but few statistics are more reliable and easy to understand.[/i] Disagree. If you want remove the words "significantly" and "more reliable" and "easy to understand"... then I'll agree. 3. [i]When it comes to assigning value to skaters, I believe one statistic stands above the rest. That statistic is PDO.[/i] Most valuable fantasy statistic: Even-strength production/minute. If a player can score at even-strength, he'll get more ice-time and more PP-time. Finding these guys is the key to fantasy hockey (keeper) leagues. ps. All this rant made, I still LOVE, LOVE the work... but hockey ain't baseball. [b]There ain't no BABIP here - so don't try to force one[/b]. ;) (Overall, though... A+ for the work... just do not agree with your interpretation of its value) - Pengwin7 Thu, 08 Mar 2012 04:26:06 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/eric-maltais/4466-kovalchuk-and-advanced-stats#comment-19821 This probably varies a lot on a player-by-player basis, and might be more an indicator of style than luck; some players just shoot a lot (Nash/Carter), whereas others (Tanguay, say) wait for quality shots. I'd like to see the stats for the three guys I mentioned, I think they would show that this depends more on a players style than on luck. - Ari Steiner Thu, 08 Mar 2012 04:05:07 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/eric-maltais/4466-kovalchuk-and-advanced-stats#comment-19820 You can see the effects in the player's plus-minus, most certainly. A lot of that comes down to luck. If you look at some of the numbers closely, you'll find a big swing between on-ice save percentages for many players from year to year -- even for those players who face the same level of quality of competition. Phoenix's Ray Whitney is one example. Whitney's plus-minus was 0 last year. His PDO was 1.002 and his on-ice save percentage was .911. This year he's a +22 with a PDO of 1.035 and an on-ice save percentage of .933. - Mike Schmidt Thu, 08 Mar 2012 03:58:58 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/eric-maltais/4466-kovalchuk-and-advanced-stats#comment-19817 PDO is pretty great for evaluating how a guy's season is going, but i wonder if the on-ice SV% portion serves any usefulness for fantasy purposes. - ultrawhiteness Wed, 07 Mar 2012 20:17:05 +0100