Comments for It’s All in the Numbers Part 1 (West 2012) at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 20 out of 20 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Sat, 18 May 2013 17:31:25 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18860 (that all you do is [b]plug in numbers[/b]) not pity in miners..haha - Brett Baxter Thu, 12 Jan 2012 03:03:12 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18859 Meant total team points. Ok, thats what I did, just added the total of players' G & A....I was thinking I missed some points from guys that may be back in minors when I did mine, because when I added Boston & Colorado I got different totals (than your examples in the article). Thought maybe there was a good site with total overall points by team listed. Also I made an excel spreadsheet (that all you do is pity in miners and it does the math) for my guys and to project potential waiver pick ups. Always nice to have another tool to help make decisions. If anyone wants the spreadsheet, let me know, I will email you or if enough people ask maybe Ryan will post it. - Brett Baxter Thu, 12 Jan 2012 02:56:36 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18857 do you mean as in players for each team? I just use NHL and filter it by team... If you mean total team points, I generally use Yahoo! http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/teams/ana/stats If you scroll down the bottom, it has the team totals of how many goals, assists, PIMs, SOG... If you want to change teams just use the dropdown menu under depth charts on the top right. - Ryan Ma Thu, 12 Jan 2012 02:36:36 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18856 Definitely, which is why you don't really want to put a lot of faith in rookies. - Ryan Ma Thu, 12 Jan 2012 02:32:43 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18850 Do you know a site that has a chart of info to get the info to make predictions? Basically what I need is number of points by team...Anyone ? I can find Goals/game easily but not points... - Brett Baxter Wed, 11 Jan 2012 17:03:54 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18849 ... and I guess they get a much shorter leash, even if they get the ice-time and can't produce right away? Don't even get a chance to become Windex Wonders with a hot streak later, to balance out a cold streak? After watching HBO's 24/7 and seeing how the pecking order works on a pro sports team like on a hockey squad, you can extrapolate how veteran players would get a lot more rope than rookies, with the factor of seniority in the team chemistry equation... - SavageGardener Wed, 11 Jan 2012 16:52:30 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18847 The thing is it's always been low if you look throughout history rookies have always been low scorers their first year. Then comes Ovechkin/Crosby/Malkin/Backstrom to come and buck the trend. The thing that poolies don't take account is that during that season the goals scored was way up due to it being the year after the lockout, also the players getting adjusted to the new clutching and grabbing rules... The game that year averaged close to 6.17 goals per game, this year it's 5.59, so games are averaging half a goal less than a few years ago... Also rookies tend to get relegated checking roles to "ease" them into the NHL, but you get a select few that just get a ton of time right away. For me it's always been about ice-time. If a player averages 18 mins a game, no matter if they're a rookie or a 10th year player they'll average such and such points. A lot of poolies think this kid is a superstar in juniors 100 points each and every season. When he gets into the NHL averages just 13 mins a game, and wonders what the heck is going on? Ice-time = point production. - Ryan Ma Wed, 11 Jan 2012 14:21:06 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18828 Nothing specific to comment on, just want to say thanks for another great piece. Always look forward to reading your columns. - horrorfan Wed, 11 Jan 2012 07:06:45 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18825 @Ryan: LOL absolutely not... just a fan of the artists, perpetually wondering what could have been had they not split. :) About Point #6 - one day, I'd love to look into how performances from the CHL translate to the NHL. I see Taylor/Tyler rack up 100 points in the OHL, Ryan Johansen and Evander Kane be 90-pointers in the WHL, etc... and there's a tendency to think, "Come on, a player like that can't end up with 20 points in his rookie season, can he?" And yet they do. :) - SavageGardener Wed, 11 Jan 2012 05:58:33 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18821 Just hover over any dot on the graph to see the star player he's referring to. - edm Wed, 11 Jan 2012 04:22:56 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18816 [b]RE: Part 2[/b] Yeah it originally was supposed to be 1 whole column, but understandably Dobber wanted to make it 2 because it was just too long to hold the attention span of the readers... but hopefully he'll post it on Thursday so you won't have to wait too long and the stats are still valid. P.S. Is SavageGardener supposed to be a joke regarding my Aussie residence? - Ryan Ma Tue, 10 Jan 2012 20:52:55 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18814 Can't wait for Part II, Ryan! Most things in life are about "probability", and you definitely put the odds in our favor with your analysis. Agree wholeheartedly about SOG... you gotta have the puck around the net and even have a shooting lane available to get a SOG, and hence a player who can do that will stand a better chance of getting points - talented playmakers with a sniper sidekick, notwithstanding. Your stuff is probably my favourite feature on DH... keep up the great work! - SavageGardener Tue, 10 Jan 2012 19:48:20 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18812 If you really want that A+, heh. - Steffen Tue, 10 Jan 2012 15:12:39 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18811 [b]RE: Point 7 [/b] Hmmm looks like I'll have to reword point 7... - Ryan Ma Tue, 10 Jan 2012 15:05:40 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18810 I used to try to teach stats to reluctant Arts students taking a required course. (I don't recommend it.) I'd grade this an A. The charts and tables are excellent (except that 5+ decimal places implies a precision that isn't really there in your 4th point), and your interpretation of them almost flawless (no real conclusion to 7th point - connect the dots for us). I agree with Pengwin7 on your 8th point: most splits should only really count if significant over careers that have provided lots of data. Don't get me wrong - this is perhaps the best statistical article I've read here. You obviously put a lot of quality time into it. Thank you very much, Mr Ma. - Steffen Tue, 10 Jan 2012 14:19:30 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18808 [b]RE: Magical Second Half[/b] Basically I just looked at the point-per-game numbers of the second half of "notable" 4th year players. So Mike Richards in the second half of his 4th year averaged 1.03 points per game... Getzlaf went off for 1.06 and Datsyuk went off for 1.17... Then I looked at last years "magical 4th year" players. Ryan went off for 1.08, Kane 1.07 and Toews 1.00. So I'm just trying to highlight who the "magical 4th year" players are this season, and who to look out for. - Ryan Ma Tue, 10 Jan 2012 12:58:12 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18807 [b]RE: Pengwin[/b] Always one of the best comments, appreciate it! i) definitely sounds like a good idea, but you have to keep in mind too is that you're also a "hardcore" poolie as well. So some of those comparisons would make perfect sense to you, but for the average poolie who's just in it for fun, probably would be way to confusing... so I want to keep it simple in that sense. ii) once again I think SOG vs. Point production isn't a be all end all 100 percent efficient correlation, as with everything in the world there's always going to be exceptions. I think you hit it right on the head that Frolik and Seto aren't natural playmakers, but maybe just getting pucks to the net is how they're going to pick up their points (earn their living). It's the same as Ovechkin really... He isn't the purest of shooters and the main reason why he continues to pot 50 every year is that he shoots 400+. So I mean you really wouldn't fault Ovechkin for doing it, so why Seto or Frolik? iii) Splits are interesting, I've never really bought largely into splits in the past, but I can see how some are definitely helpful... I mostly use them for goalies to be honest. There are some clear splits between home/road numbers that if you take advantage of them. It can really turn the tide in your favour. First half vs. second half is another big one that I use. iv) is definitely useful, especially if you're in roto leagues and trying to make up games... or even H2H matchups gearing up to make a run for the playoffs. Mathy stuff is great! Hopefully it's out on Thursday and you won't have to wait long. - Ryan Ma Tue, 10 Jan 2012 12:54:15 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18803 Ma, the amount of work you put into this is incredible! Fantastic article, although I had a tough time understanding the "magical second half" part.... were the numbers there each player's second half numbers in the last three years?? I think that's it but I'm too lazy to go look myself. Read every word of this dude, thanks! - Ryan Goddard Tue, 10 Jan 2012 10:49:31 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18801 This is absolutely incredible work ! Love it. Probably since I am a huge Stat (numbers are my job) guy, with a degree in Applied Statistics! Keep up the great pieces - Brett Baxter Tue, 10 Jan 2012 10:42:44 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/4276-its-all-in-the-numbers-part-1-west-2012#comment-18796 By far, my favourite fantasy hockey articles at DobberHockey are from Ma. Love-love-love. Taking a break from complimenting... I'll throw in some of my own opinion on this list. i) I'd love to see this list broken into a 5&5 presentation, with there being a 1a)Evaluation and 1b Forecasting. For example, item #1) PPG Players is a great eval and would be nicely combined with realistic projections of #7) 4th Year Players. Also, I love #2... which could be nicely combined with #9) Forecasting a player's rise based on increased ice-time by getting a Top 6 role. And rookies (#6) and splits (#8) might go together well. (see my item iii) ii) Item #3: SOG. While I like SOG, I think any correlation btw SOG&PTS needs to at least discuss a player's shooting percentage. For example, nobody (IMO) throws more trash on net than Michael Frolik - a guy who's shot just isn't clean enough to consistently beat NHL goalies. One of the most common "kick yourself" trades I see is people who invested in Frolik. Similarly, Devin Setoguchi is a guy who has trained himself to shoot-shoot-shoot. Yeah, he can bang in the gimmies... but his lack of passing game does nothing for his overall point totals and when removed from a top tier passer, Seto's game hits a wall. I'd prefer to see a mention of SH% in any SOGvsPTS discussion. iii) re: Item #9... Splits are a love-hate affair for me. I like some splits... especially ES vs. PPP... I'm a "keeper investor" in players that are putting up big ES point totals (curse you Bobby Ryan). However, I have never put any stock in HOME-ROAD splits and I never look into NOV/DEC/JAN/FEB/MAR splits. I'm sure if you look at 100 samples (players) you can find trends. If you have 100 people each flip a coin 100 times you are also going to find somebody who "seems" to flip a heads on an odd turn and a tail on an even turn. If splits apply to anybody - I'd think a rookie may be likely to feel swayed by certain conditions (short NCAA seasons reflecting in 1st vs. 2nd half splits -or- Weekend Performers reflecting kids out of the CHL.) And what is "daily breakdown"? iv) Love #10. In leagues allowing several transactions, I take advantage of weekly schedules, games played, and games remaining as OFTEN as possible! [b]Big thumbs up... can't wait for the mathy article![/b] - Pengwin7 Tue, 10 Jan 2012 09:43:34 +0100