Comments for Enlightened You Shall Be (West 2011) at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 12 out of 12 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Sun, 19 May 2013 04:51:17 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3957-enlightened-you-shall-be-west-2011#comment-16463 I'm not saying Doughty's bad, but he's being picked ahead of D-men with much more proven track-records. I think Boyle, Keith, Letang, Chara, Yandle, Ehrhoff & Burns are all equivalent (or better) options that have gone later than Doughty in the Mock Drafts I've been in. Also, I've noticed that Havlat & Hossa have been going fairly early in Drafts when they're part of a really large bracket of "risky" RW's: Semin, Gaborik, Briere, Selanne, Hemsky, Jagr, Hejduk, Williams. My strategy has been to split that field in 2: Semin-Selanne, Hemsky-Williams. I leave on my draft board, and when 3 disappear, I take a stab at the 4th. That way, I've usually got one solid RW before I pick a band-aid boy. Also, it lets me shore up other shallower positions (LW!) before chasing down any of these high-risk-high-reward players. Also, regarding Perry, I agree his G might slip this year. However, he's a multicat BEAST! Even with a 'measley' 80 points, he could still flirt with 250 yahoo points. Finally, if Getzlaf feeds him the biscuit for a full 82, he could rack up 50+ more SOG than last year, fixing his S% aberration. - Jeff Fri, 16 Sep 2011 10:46:19 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3957-enlightened-you-shall-be-west-2011#comment-16417 Disclaimer: When I discuss these guys, it assuming one-year leagues, 6-cat, H2H. @Ma: Thanks for your top 5. I appreciate it. I'm OK with difference of opinion. @Nigel: I think you'll be the one making the mistake if you let Perry drop out of the top 5. You say "[i]If you take Perry's two seasons before last year[/i]"... well why would anybody expect those years??? You expect Perry to regress? *Perry is better than he was two years ago. *Getzlaf is better than he was two years ago. *Bobby Ryan is better than he was two years ago. *Lubo wasn't even on the team to start two years ago, and he's perfect for this PP. *Cam Fowler wasn't even on the team two years ago, and will be better PP this year. The situation with Perry & Anaheim isn't all that different from H.Sedin & Vancouver. In 09-10, D.Sedin was injured and H.Sedin put up big numbers. In 10-11, both Sedins were healthy and BOTH Sedins put up big numbers. These were their 9th & 10th years in the league. They blossomed later than typ players. In 10-11, Getzlaf was injured and Perry put up big numbers. In 11-12, what if Getzlaf & Perry are both healthy? And Bobby Ryan getting better? These will be their 6th & 7th years in the league. Still slightly late to blossom. [b]Perry is my #2.[/b] - Pengwin7 Wed, 14 Sep 2011 06:18:23 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3957-enlightened-you-shall-be-west-2011#comment-16406 Oh yeah, brain fart about the West only column :). Good follow up, thanks. Yeah instead of Sedin, you could , get a guy with less points (especially if only assists is the main increase) for a more balanced player (e.g. for West: Kopitar, Toews). As for Perry, even with only one season's worth of elite production, given his category balance and strength (SOG,PPP,PIM), he is not a bad pick in the first round even if he drops to something like 38-45. Also consider that other players in the first round have risk - Malkin, Crosby, even Parise/Datsyuk if people like them that high. There is value in looking at "what have you done for me lately" as well. In general, a lot of it comes down to personal strategy and focus for each position. Do you want balanced across the board? Do you want your centres to be playmakers and wingers to be shooters? Do you want 'safe' options? Do you want to guarantee good value for your pick in each round? Definitely looking forward to our draft, should be very interesting to see how it unfolds. - horrorfan Wed, 14 Sep 2011 00:53:28 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3957-enlightened-you-shall-be-west-2011#comment-16405 [b]RE: Sedin[/b] Definitely, if you've been following my columns for a few years, you'll probably know that I'm not that big into "soft players". I like much more across-the-board producers even if they don't put up as big of points. Sedin at 5 I think is pretty similar to Perry, but with Sedin you kinda know that you at least should be getting the points. He has a much larger set of data/history to draw from. I have no problem heading into the season assuming that he's a 90 point player. Perry I want to see at least another season before I anoint that tag beside his name. I personally wouldn't take Sedin at 5 (because of exactly what you said, I can have Thornton/Staal/Getzlaf 2-3 rounds later, and they'll produce at a similar rate), so why waste a high pick on a position that's easily replaceable is my opinion... Skinner also is a bit over-rated based on just one season's worth of data, I'm sure Tim will cover that in his column. The thing with Skinner is that I do see talent in him, he reminds me a lot of Patty Kane to be honest. The only downer is that he's listed as a C, which I think is a mislabel really. He's a RW and shouldn't really be a C. But you are right. I would definitely take Stastny, Vinny, Ribeiro and Spezza over him. I think he's in an identical boat as Couture, but I think Skinner is in a bit of a better position than Couture based on their respective depth charts. Looking forward to the weekend for our draft! - Ryan Ma Tue, 13 Sep 2011 23:48:11 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3957-enlightened-you-shall-be-west-2011#comment-16404 [b]RE: James[/b] Definitely, I think that's probably why those players are listed so low anyways. If they were healthy no way in hell would they be ranked so low on draft lists. So that's where you kinda have to roll the dice. Also just cause I listed alternatives doesn't mean you have to take all of them. No way would I have a team of Zets, Hossa, Havlat, Spezza, Sturm, Pronger and Nitty... I'd probably have 1 or 2 but I certainly wouldn't get all of them. But you are right, I'm just kinda providing alternatives as in who could you take instead, I didn't want an article where I just listed why I thought so and so was over-rated. I thought that providing alternatives would benefit Dobberites much more than just saying avoid so and so... - Ryan Ma Tue, 13 Sep 2011 23:38:02 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3957-enlightened-you-shall-be-west-2011#comment-16403 Meant to change it after writing comment. - horrorfan Tue, 13 Sep 2011 23:29:37 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3957-enlightened-you-shall-be-west-2011#comment-16402 Nice piece Ryan, well thought out and written. Note that I haven't done any mocks, especially since my leagues vary quite a bit from the standard settings. I'm wondering about a couple other players who, in my opinion, have a high default ranking, where they have been drafted in your mocks and your thoughts on them: Henrik Sedin, ranked 5th. Although a safe bet for points and PPP, he's not as valuable in multiple categories and I would never consider him for a first round pick (especially top five), and in such a deep position. Jeff Skinner, ranked 54th. The fact that he's down as a C is bad enough, but last year's rookie being ranked ahead of Lecavalier, Stastny, Ribeiro and Spezza doesn't sit well with me. - horrorfan Tue, 13 Sep 2011 23:28:55 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3957-enlightened-you-shall-be-west-2011#comment-16395 My only criticism of some of your alternates is that many of them are injury prone. Personally, I try to limit the number of 'injury prone' guys on my roster, but of course you don't win without taking some risks. It's almost like you recommend 1 'injury prone' option and 1 'healthy', but regardless of that being intentional or accidental it is something to keep in mind for anyone yet to draft :) I cringe to think of a roster with Zets, Hossa, Havlat, Spezza, Sturm, Pronger and Nitty...looks nice in print, but between those players you'd probably lose a full 2 players (maybe 3 with Havlat involved) worth of games. I don't think your advocating a roster containing those guys, just my 2 cents when looking at 'alternatives' :) - james Tue, 13 Sep 2011 13:37:17 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3957-enlightened-you-shall-be-west-2011#comment-16393 [b]RE: Alternatives for Perry[/b] Nigel pretty much hit it right on the money in terms of my opinion. My answer is two-fold. First, I do expect a bit of a drop off in production in Perry. We've been through a lot of the reasons in my previous columns (shooting %, possibly no Selanne, his numbers against the East teams...). I'm thinking its probably going to be closer to 80 points than 90 points this season. In the first round you need to have that sure-fire rock on your squad to consistently put up huge points for you, especially if you are taking an offensive person in the first 5 picks... If I'm looking for an 80-pointer you can get that in rounds 2-4 fairly easily. You can't afford to draft a 80-pointer with your first round pick and expect to win. Look at those who drafted Ovechkin with the first pick last season. I don't think very many team won, but those who drafted Perry in the 3rd-4th round, were much more likely to win. Secondly, as I mentioned in the column, RW are plenty, I've been through many mock drafts and still have quality guys like Pominville, Boyes, Hejduk still left on the table after the draft. I don't have that option with LW. So if I'm picking in the mid-rounds (5-10), I would honestly over-reach and over-pay to snag a LW knowing that I won't be able to get the depth at LW later on. Which is why I would sour on any RW (St. Louis or Iggy) in the first round compared to a LW, D or G.\ In terms of offensive alternatives (not necessarily in order) I would have AO, D. Sedin, Stamkos, Crosby (yes I would still take Crosby in a top 4 slot, what can I say I'm a gambler), Malkin, and an interesting one Datsyuk before I take Perry. And there's a few others that I would take as well, but because they're a bit lower ranked I know I don't have to take them in the first round and still get them back in the 2nd round (Kovalchuk, Parise). Of course I would probably take Lundy and/or possibly Miller as well. So it would depend on my mood, but I can tell you that I would certainly take one of those players before I take Perry. I guess we can look back at this in April and see if I was on the ball or if I was completely stupid. ;) - Ryan Ma Tue, 13 Sep 2011 12:39:25 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3957-enlightened-you-shall-be-west-2011#comment-16391 Come on Pengwin7, just read the article once again. He doesn´t say that his play last season doesn´t put him in top 5. He is saying, that one season is just small sample to take this production for granted. If you take Perry´s two seasons before the last one, he averages 30G, 45A, +5, 105PIM, 23PPP and 276 SOG. Still nice numbers but by any mean not 2nd best. If you think Perry repeats last season, don´t hesitate, go ahead and take him in every league you can... - Nigel Tue, 13 Sep 2011 12:17:14 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3957-enlightened-you-shall-be-west-2011#comment-16388 Hi Pengwin, I like your analysis as well, but if this is true: My H2H forecasted value: Ovechkin 6.36, Crosby-Healthy = 6.06, Perry, D.Sedin, Stamkos 5.40, Malkin 5.19, H.Sedin 5.11 Why would you take Perry (RW) over D. Sedin (LW). BTW: My top 5 in most formats are: Ovechkin D. Sedin Stamkos Malkin (could get LW status) Perry - Marcus Lepkowski Tue, 13 Sep 2011 10:33:04 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3957-enlightened-you-shall-be-west-2011#comment-16386 Love all of these, except one. First, I have to dish out some well-deserved compliments (that will lead to my one critique). When recommending a player NOT to pick, it is great to recommend an alternate player/option. There is enormous value in this article because virtually ever player is presented with a suggestion: If you consider Niemi, take Nitty as a handcuff. If you are looking at Ryan, consider Zetterberg or Kovalchuk. If you are looking at Backes, consider Gaborik. Etc, Etc (Great Great Stuff!) These recommendations are soooo good, I feel I need to pile on 1000 compliments. (so pretend there are 1000 compliments here) [i]But... Corey Perry[/i]. While I agree that he "seems" too high at #5, who is a better option? A LOT of poolies are struggling with this item this year. 1. Ovechkin 2. ? 3. ? 4. ? 5. ? In a 6-cat league (by my own personal math formulas): Daniel Sedin = 40G, 60A, +30, 30 PIM, 35PPP, 260 SOG. Score = 5.54 Corey Perry = 40G, 50A, +10, 110 PIM, 30PPP, 300 SOG. Score = 5.75 (My H2H forecasted value: Ovechkin 6.36, Crosby-Healthy = 6.06, Perry, D.Sedin, Stamkos 5.40, Malkin 5.19, H.Sedin 5.11) The #2/#3/#4 spots are tough draft positions this year for these reasons. I think Corey Perry (unfortunately) is the #2 option, even with a slight drop in scoring. I'd rather have a RW than a C. I finally have a chance to put you on the spot, Ma!!! [b]You can say that Perry at #5 is "[i]damn high[/i]"... but what are our options?[/b] Give me your #2, #3, #4, and #5 overall picks in a standard 6x4 Yahoo league. Overall, I completely loved this piece. A - Pengwin7 Tue, 13 Sep 2011 08:09:08 +0100