Comments for Sidney Crosby - Fantasy Impact at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 16 out of 16 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Wed, 19 Jun 2013 21:05:36 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16336 The article does seem to rely on a "when he's back he is back" assumption. The doctors say he will play this season. The worst case assumption is that that will be with 30 games to go. I see it as "very likely" that he suffers a setback within those 30 games and gets pulled before the season end. Therefore worst case would be less than 30 games. As a single year league player I will not take Crosby in my draft. When I would take him (maybe the 4th round) is really a moot point, as someone else will certainly draft him before I will. - ktox Sat, 10 Sep 2011 11:21:31 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16278 got them now, thanks :) - Repent Tokyo Thu, 08 Sep 2011 05:40:08 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16277 If you read in during the three minutes that I was in here formatting just now...then yes. LOL - Dobber Thu, 08 Sep 2011 05:39:28 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16276 who can't see the projections referred to in this article? - Repent Tokyo Thu, 08 Sep 2011 05:37:31 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16274 Interesting that if crosby plays 70 games instead of 30 fleury only gets 4 additional W's. I thought crosby may have more of an impact than that on the overall team's record. Also, I like where Chewd is going with this. Don't necessary agree but it's a neat angle. There IS a chance that he won't play at all (albeit very very very slight...setbacks etc.) and it would be interesting to see projections (For the rest of the Pens) if he doesn't play at all. Although he would still go in the first round of almost every format league regardless. - Rob Myatt Thu, 08 Sep 2011 03:28:57 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16271 You're right I didn't see the presser! All I was saying was that according to your article, in Crosby's own words when asked if there was a chance that he would never come back, he replied "very slight". That implies that there is a slight chance (however minuscule the chance 0.01% or whatever) that the worst case scenario is zero games. I'm not saying that I would bet that he will play zero or that it is the most likely outcome. Question: Is it at all possible that Crosby doesn't play a single game? If the answer is no then I'm missing something. Disclaimer: I traded Crosby last week. :'( - Chewd Wed, 07 Sep 2011 19:28:27 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16269 So you didn't see the press conference then? Sid and the doctors all but guaranteed he would play this season...and this is a topic where nobody guarantees anything. So the range is not best case 70 worst case 0, thereby nullifying your logic ;) - Dobber Wed, 07 Sep 2011 18:05:01 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16267 If I had to bet $500 right now, given a 10 game range, I would put it down for 35 - 45 games (I'm a little more risk averse). Assuming 3 possible outcomes as follows: 1. Best Case: 70 gms = 111pts (10% probability of occurring) 2. Worst Case: 0 gms = 0pts (10% probability of occurring) 3. Most Likely Case: 45 gms = 64 pts (80% probability of occurring) Expected Value = (111 x 0.1)+(64 x 0.8)+(0 x 0.1) Expected Value = 62 points Note: all variables are subject to your own interpretation of points per games and probability of games played. - Chewd Wed, 07 Sep 2011 17:06:19 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16265 Not sure who's avatar that was from my last post but it's not mine. Weird. - Chewd Wed, 07 Sep 2011 16:09:17 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16264 If I had a 10-game window and I was FORCED to bet $500 on it, I would put it on 57 to 67 games. That takes him early to late November. If I bet $500 on 30-40 games, I would be too afraid of losing all that money. What would you gamble on? Real dollars, now! If he goes zero games, then his projection is zero points. I'm saying here that if he plays any games, which is where my head is at, then it will be minimum 30. Markus - if the GMs in your league knew in October that Crosby would miss 40 games, they may have made different moves. But seeing you jump to a monster lead...they probably made trades accordingly, assuming you won it. By the time they knew different...it may have been too late. Apples and oranges - start of the season vs. end of the season. - Dobber Wed, 07 Sep 2011 15:28:26 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16263 In H2H leagues, Crosby should still be in the top 5. Most savvy GM's can make the playoffs and at that time you want to have the best players available. I had Crosby last year in my league and STILL won without him. Peace - Marcus Lepkowski Wed, 07 Sep 2011 15:16:11 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16262 I believe the worst case should be zero games played for this season even if the probability is "very slight". The 30-40 game range seems like the most probable but not the worst case. His forecast would then be a simple expected value equation of all scenarios with associated probabilities. - Chewd Wed, 07 Sep 2011 14:34:15 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16261 Having taken the opportunity/risk of trading for a concussed Crosby (only way i would get him off his previous owner) last season, this news hurts my team significantly. I built the core of my keeper team around the Penguins, which under previous circumstances, i would be ready to work my way up the standings but as Dobber noted, the most impact will be felt by owners of Crosby, Letang and Fleury. The core of my team: Crosby, Letang and Fleury. The Pens can clearly win games without Crosby so i am not overly concerned about Fleury's stats this year as he played like a beast without #87 and kept them in almost every game. The biggest hit will be to Letang. He had 'Mike Green Status' written all over him last year and with the departure of Goligoski, even more ice time for him on the PP but with the Pens scoring 1-2 GRINDING goals a game, it's tough to get in on those points. @Pengwin7 1) He has no choice but to produce. If he doesn't he falls out of the upper tier of NHLers and becomes expendable once Crosby returns. Based on Malkin's drive this summer and his commitment to getting into the "best shape he has ever been", I really believe he will return to his game breaking ways. I was actually expecting an increase of 10+ points at least and was surprised to see only 6 tacked on. The Pens PP has been mediocre at best the last few years and the PP was never dominant nor was it a sure thing to score (much like you expect a VAN or WAS type team to score every time) so if anything it opens up more time for Malkin to handle the puck, which he sure loves to do, and i don't see it being any worse than it was. 2) I highly doubt Malkin is on Staal's wing expect in MUST SCORE situations and on the PP. Hopefully Malkin worked on his faceoffs as much as his fitness. I would say there is a 5% chance he gets a W, until Crosby returns, then it would go up to 75%. 3) I don't think it will drop as much as you might think and i believe he will still have a 35+ total and unless you compare him to a 70+game goalie like Luongo[was], Lundqvist, Price or Quick[was] he will be at the top of the league in wins. you're in better shape than I am my good man. I am already looking forward to Crosby's return to the ice and Malkin's return to dominance! [b]My prediction: Crosby comes back in January, making it a full year. 40GP 28G 32A 60P[/b] - Maximus Wed, 07 Sep 2011 11:06:56 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16260 So now the big question is, when do we draft him in 1yr leagues? - Czechline Wed, 07 Sep 2011 10:06:26 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16258 With Fleury & Malkin as two of my top keepers, this news kills me. 1. I disagree that Malkin's total could be better without Crosby. I know it was this way a few years ago, but the PP is just so much better with more talent. 2. I would have called Malkin a 90% likelihood for winger eligibility with a healthy Crosby. I still think there is a chance Bylsma puts somebody else at a center and keeps Malkin on wing with Staal, but I could be wrong. 3. Fleury's win total definitely drops. Big, big bummer. - Pengwin7 Wed, 07 Sep 2011 09:39:19 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/darryl-dobbs/3942-sidney-crosby-fantasy-impact#comment-16257 Crosby does not return by the end of October. I would say best case scenario for the Penguins is that he is up to speed and ready by December. They definitely hold him off if they are winning which I believe they will. Crosby around 50-55 games is a safe prediction to make. If I was the Penguins though, I would hold him off until March and Playoff time. - Renegade Wed, 07 Sep 2011 09:38:11 +0100