Comments for Roto Keeper Monsters - Hits/BS Top 10 Defensemen at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 9 out of 9 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Wed, 19 Jun 2013 18:18:31 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/46-gates-imbeau/3771-roto-keeper-monsters-hitsbs-top-10-defensemen#comment-14973 is the equivalent of just introducing a random number generator due to arena bias and a lack of standardization in the league regarding how these "stats" are collected. I'll stick to stats that are collected by actual NHL employees, not team employees. - Repent Tokyo Wed, 29 Jun 2011 08:23:24 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/46-gates-imbeau/3771-roto-keeper-monsters-hitsbs-top-10-defensemen#comment-14946 Jocular Hockey Manager, For my research, HockeyPoolGeek.com was the primary source, especially for their three year average tool. Other sources included Fantrax, Frozenpool, NHL.com etc... - GMGates Tue, 28 Jun 2011 04:58:31 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/46-gates-imbeau/3771-roto-keeper-monsters-hitsbs-top-10-defensemen#comment-14945 HF, Predicting a three year upside was definitely a challenge. At first, I kept going back to a player’s potential career season, but after enough research, going back as much as six years (Robidas), seeing trends in H/BS became apparent. One thing to note is that in a three year span, while I do see a younger player like Schenn reach 300 Hits and 175 Blocked Shots, you can’t expect that type of finish yearly – it won’t happen. In recent years, only a couple of these players repeated top three finishes, none of them repeated 1st place finishes. In addition, experienced blue liners like Greene and Orpik may have already hit their upside (Orpik - 300 Hits, Greene - 167 Blocked Shots) and may not likely hit them again. While you really can’t predict these categories in the same manner as points, to some degree, there are similar patterns. Yes, you can probably bring in metrics and break it down to a formula, but these are my personal thoughts and predications. It’s based on a score based system, like the one used for the Top 100 Roto, influenced by past achievements, consistency, room for growth and a dash gut feeling. Hopefully that helps! Gates - GMGates Tue, 28 Jun 2011 04:52:01 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/46-gates-imbeau/3771-roto-keeper-monsters-hitsbs-top-10-defensemen#comment-14944 Definitely agree if we're talking a standard league format, Pengwin. You can't include these kind of cats in those league. That's precisely why I don't really play in such leagues, though. Points leagues -- where each "category" is weighed appropriately -- are really the only way I like to play. There [i]is[/i] real hockey value in hits and blocked shots, so they ought to be worth something. In my two leagues that count these stats, they are worth about 1/10th the value of goals and assists. Roto points or H2H points only way to play!! On another note, I think you're looking at hits wrong if you are seeing them only as a means of dispossession. There's more to hits than that. Also, if you go too far trying to look at the "real" value of certain statistics and relating it to "fantasy" value, a lot of categories really start to break down -- PIMs, powerplay points, etc. - Kraftster Tue, 28 Jun 2011 04:50:57 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/46-gates-imbeau/3771-roto-keeper-monsters-hitsbs-top-10-defensemen#comment-14943 Very good article. Great value - nice presentation, clean write-up. Excellent style. Nothing to debate about the information. [b]Personally, I'm not a fan of hits or blocked shots.[/b] Defensively, a lot of the D with high hit totals are the less-agile defensemen. These guys can't strip a player of the puck with a good poke-check, meaning the offensive player typically skates around them into the offensive zone. This often leads to a hit on the boards or in the corner if the D-man can ride them out there. This gives these less-agile D-men value, yes. What is neglected is that excellent defenseman (like a Lidstrom) can dispossess a player of a puck without a "hit". In fairness, a league needs to include "takeaways" if they intend to include "hits". This balances the two-ways of dispossessing an opponent of the puck. However, by including BOTH of these categories, the offensive cats are getting watered down. My experience in fantasy hockey is that having too many categories (6+) start to decrease the fun value of a pool. [b]If you have to get out an Excel spreadsheet to determine the exact value of every player, the pool is less about enjoying hockey and more about understanding the math.[/b] Blocked shots is a statistic that is most heavily accumulated by the larger defensemen that play SH time. Are these guys valuable because a puck is fired in on net and these guys are in front of it? Ah, sort of... I guess. IMO, we are just associating them with value for being big. There's not really a statistic for players who kill penalties - and there is certainly some value here... but is it worth an entire category? I think it is a little much. Not a fan of either hits or blocked shots in a multi-cat league, and I wouldn't join a pool including these stats. All that said, the article here is AMAZING and a great value to those people in leagues with those categories. Great work! - Pengwin7 Tue, 28 Jun 2011 04:41:04 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/46-gates-imbeau/3771-roto-keeper-monsters-hitsbs-top-10-defensemen#comment-14941 In multi-cat, I believe hits & blocked shots are far more viable than plus minus. The best part of this list, is that many of these players hold little value in Fantasy, unless these CATS are included. Over all, multi-cat leagues using these categories, will develop a better emulation of the real NHL than leagues that ignore these CATS. Where did you get these totals? - Jocular Hockey Manager Tue, 28 Jun 2011 04:02:38 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/46-gates-imbeau/3771-roto-keeper-monsters-hitsbs-top-10-defensemen#comment-14940 Nice article, Gates. We recently added hits in one league and are looking at both cats in another. I've been following the 10 mentioned and the bulk of them are taken...be interesting to see which guys are dropped in the off-season. Peckham has additional value when you add in PIMs! For a forward, adding hits as a category with positions, guys like Brown take an incredible leap up. Regarding valuation, many owners have a tough time switching mindsets. I haven,t run the numbers...this is just an example, but a Cal Clutterbuck for Pat Kane trade may make perfect sense statistically, but rarely flies. The multi-cat leagues are awesome. You don't always have to have scoring punch to win, if you build around other categories. Think Nashville beating Washington! - Rad64 Tue, 28 Jun 2011 03:19:38 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/46-gates-imbeau/3771-roto-keeper-monsters-hitsbs-top-10-defensemen#comment-14939 Nice job Gates, thanks. I'm a big fan of both hits and blocked shots that I intend to mainly play in leagues with them included. Just curious though, how do you determine a three year upside for these categories? I can understand looking at someone's point potential (e.g. age, growth, linemates, PP time etc) but I'm a bit clueless on how one can forecast an upside in hits and blocked shots. Thanks in advance. - horrorfan Tue, 28 Jun 2011 01:00:42 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/46-gates-imbeau/3771-roto-keeper-monsters-hitsbs-top-10-defensemen#comment-14937 Hits and blocked shots are imo going to come into fantasy relevance... I think blocked shots will begin a trend of including elite defensive defensemen.. Now that trend will take probably 5-10 years and a sabermetrics revolution but it will happen and this is the start. I am in two leagues that have hits without PIMs. Personally I believe that pims dont really make sense... They are the only stat that hurts the team and benefits us. Hits benefit us and at worst have a neutral effect on the team and usually a positive effect. Hits should become mainstream as soon as they are league-tallied as there is too much human error in individual teams record them. Until then it will remain a fringe stat. - Austin Mon, 27 Jun 2011 23:30:14 +0100