Comments for Projections, Projections, We All Love Our Projections (2011) at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 14 out of 14 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Wed, 22 May 2013 04:55:13 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3682-projections-projections-we-all-love-our-projections-2011#comment-14170 I see defense as being necessary but not sufficient for cup contenders. While it's true that teams lacking defense don't tend to hoist Stanley, one could just as well say that offense wins championships (at least in the post-lockout era). Why, just this year Nashville and Detroit -- two of the most highly praised defensive units in the NHL went out in the 2nd round. Pittsburgh was nothing BUT team defense without Malkin or Crosby, and their defensive play couldn't get them through round 1. San Jose's still in the running and so is Tampa Bay, though neither are recognized as paragons of defensive prowess. I suppose what I mean to say is that considering only defense or offense as a recipe for success is narrow-minded. I would say that striking the best balance between the two is the right way to do it. I think Vancouver & Boston have exemplary rosters in this sense, and I fully expect to see both of them in the Cup final. - Jeff Mon, 23 May 2011 10:35:33 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3682-projections-projections-we-all-love-our-projections-2011#comment-14059 Great article, Ryan. I tend to value players along your lines...closer to reality. A healthy Crosby, Malkin and Parise would likely have produced another 100 points if they had played closer to 75-80 games. Berglund is a great example to use. The Blues are a team without a true #1 line. They play and score by committee with 3 decent scoring lines. It is doubtful any player on the current Blues roster will reach 80 pts. There is not enough ice time to go around. Add Perron to the mix and there are less minutes available. I believe there was an article out last season showing that minutes per line were getting closer. That's why we are seeing fewer players reaching 70+, but far more reaching that 55-60 mark. - Rad64 Wed, 18 May 2011 05:29:39 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3682-projections-projections-we-all-love-our-projections-2011#comment-14053 Great to hear the feedback! I used Berglund as an example, mostly because I had recently researched him so it was the best data I had (without having to research even more), but really, my line of thinking would say that all of the "stars" and up-and-coming "stars" will see an increase in point production. I guess it depends on the depth of the league, but my thinking is that if you have a guy who has scored 50 points in his career best year, most likely the rest of your GMs are going to be valuing him right around that number. There might be reasons why he could (or should) score more, but the Claude Giroux jumps aren't all that common and everyone knows it. Until that player scores 60-65, I don't think anyone will be able to trade him as a 65-70 point player or draft him that high either. That's all I'm saying...the guy should be good, but I'm not at all suggesting to start drafting that guy above the players who've already achieved 60+ in their careers and are looking for more. I think we're on the same page in that regard. It will be interesting to see if we do see a surge in point production, because either one of us could be right. I always hope for more offense, but I can certainly see where you're coming from with the "defense wins championships" logic winning. - Tim Lucarelli Tue, 17 May 2011 14:10:05 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3682-projections-projections-we-all-love-our-projections-2011#comment-14052 [b]RE: Berglund[/b] You did a great job Tim, but regardless of what you wrote, with his performance at the WC and the numbers he posted last season, there is going to be a lot of hype and high expectations around him heading into this campaign. I think you hit it right, if you go in expecting 50 points then I think you should be safe, but I've seen a few mind boggling numbers like 65-70, 70+, even point-per-game numbers thrown around. It's not your fault and I do understand what you did, but when you provide "reasoning" as to why a player is going to produce more points, you're indirectly inflating their draft value as well. Generally speaking, people draft according to points, and points is directly related to draft position. Eg.) I'm drafting Crosby in the first round because I know he's going to get more points than Mikko Koivu. So when someone says a center entering this season has 60-65 point [b]potential[/b], that puts them into the same league as Richards, Duchene and Tavares IMO. So I think the tough task is to draw the line between "potential" and "reality", what a lot of poolies get confused with is they take "potential" as "reality", which artificially inflates all of the numbers. You make a great point about the overall NHL goals too. The thing is the NHL is a "defense first league". If you look at the trends all of the teams that have won recent cups, defense has always gotten it done over a highly explosive offensive team. Take a look at Ottawa, SJ, and WSH all highly offensive teams, cups next to their names = 0. The old adage that "defense wins championships" is completely true in my opinion. Until that trend is broken, the NHL will remain a defense first league. Also I don't think it was necessarily a "recession". I think what inflated the numbers just after the lockout was the new rules and players having a full year of rest, prior to the lockout it was even more of a defensive league. I think those few years after the lockout was actually a "boom" for the league, but things are returning back to normal (defensive hockey) now. Now with your thought process, that's where the gamble comes in. Do you bank on the numbers returning back to normal, or do you play the "safe" route and assume things stay the same with the upside of things changing a little bit? Another thing for me is if you're going to take the gamble, wouldn't it be a safer bet that it's the group below that gets bumped up rather than the 50-point group. I'd feel much more confident to say that it's the Duchene's, Tsvares', Carter's, Nash's, Richard's, Pavelski's, Heatley's, Kessel's, Koivu's, Kovalchuk's, Stastny's, Datsyuk's, Doan's, or Havlat's that get bumped up to the 70+ point mark than Berglund, but that's just my humble opinion. Don't get me wrong I too think that Berglund will garner more ice-time this year. What I'm hesitant to dive head first in, is to assume that he's going to pull a Giroux and average 19+ a game especially with McDonald and Oshie there as competition. I've seen many people fall into that trap with Filatov, Zherdev and Hudler and I just wanted to put up a warning sign for some of the Dobberities out there. - Ryan Ma Tue, 17 May 2011 12:22:11 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3682-projections-projections-we-all-love-our-projections-2011#comment-14051 [b]RE: Outliers[/b] Definitely there's always going to be outliers, Jeff Skinner this season is a big one. The main thing is not to assume that everyone is going to be an outlier. Most of the time it just happens without people predicting it. If you follow the "general trend" or "general numbers" chances are you'll hit much more than you miss. If you think in terms of everyone is going to be an outlier, you'll definitely miss more than you hit. - Ryan Ma Tue, 17 May 2011 11:58:28 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3682-projections-projections-we-all-love-our-projections-2011#comment-14050 [b]RE: Magical 4th year [/b] I think I might do an extensive column regard this in the off-season. I certainly see a trend and am a big proponent of it, but I know that there's quite a few naysayers out there. - Ryan Ma Tue, 17 May 2011 11:55:48 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3682-projections-projections-we-all-love-our-projections-2011#comment-14049 [b]RE: Positive Comments[/b] Thanks for the positive comments, definitely makes my writing a lot easier when I know that people are going to be pleased. - Ryan Ma Tue, 17 May 2011 11:54:19 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3682-projections-projections-we-all-love-our-projections-2011#comment-14048 Great writeup Ryan. I appreciate you taking the time to look into and refer to my Berglund piece. Maybe I was confusing, but I hope readers don't come out of that thinking he should be drafted above someone like Richards, Tavares, or Duchene. I think [b]most [/b]people are going to value Berglund around the 50 point range next season, so what I was doing is providing analysis of why he should [i]get more points[/i], not why he should be drafted higher. Essentially, I'm trying to provide the readers an advantage in their leagues. Just because I know (or think I know) that a player will score 60-65 points doesn't mean my fellow leaguemates know that or value him in that range. Back to the numbers, in my research during the Berglund article, I came across similar (though much less in depth) analysis as you. I looked at the number of players who have scored 70 or more points over the last five years. Starting at five years ago, we had 44, 39, 40, 30, and 24 players score 70 or more points. As you can see, the trend is going down... [b]BUT[/b], I personally don't think that means the trend should stay down. Rather, I see the NHL this season almost in a (for lack of a better term) recession. Just because it's down now doesn't mean it won't go back up soon. I think the average number of 70 point players should be closer to the 35-40 range, not 24. Also, outside of the 07-08 year, this was a fairly low scoring NHL season. Total NHL goals over the last 5 seasons: 2010-11: 6,870 2009-10: 6,987 2008-09: 6,966 2007-08: 6,847 2006-07: 7,246 With that in mind, when a player like Berglund can put together his best season in a "down year," I look at that as encouraging. I have my own feelings about his role on the team (I think his ice time will go up next year), but that's a whole separate topic. Regardless of how I feel about Berglund, I generally feel that we'll see some higher point totals next year. Again, excellent article and it was a great read. Cheers! - Tim Lucarelli Tue, 17 May 2011 11:27:05 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3682-projections-projections-we-all-love-our-projections-2011#comment-14046 I've enjoyed this one in the past and I still do! It's a great way to put player forecasts into perspective. As you mentioned, there are the occasional outliers, but for the most part it's a more realistic way to tier certain groups of players. Excellent article Ryan! - horrorfan Tue, 17 May 2011 08:48:23 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3682-projections-projections-we-all-love-our-projections-2011#comment-14045 Very well done, Ryan....Great insight and predictability using this approach. Saved permanently as a pre-draft read. - mike hess Tue, 17 May 2011 07:26:21 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3682-projections-projections-we-all-love-our-projections-2011#comment-14044 Fantastic article!! love the breakdown your similar article last summer was an epiphany moment for me, especially regarding point #4!! Thats one of the most important things i have learned on this site!! Cheers and keep em coming!! - wendelclark17 Tue, 17 May 2011 07:08:47 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3682-projections-projections-we-all-love-our-projections-2011#comment-14043 I'm going to grade myself on the "Ma Grading System". Berglund, 58pts ("overreach just a little bit, treat him as a 60 pointer"). HIT Stastny, 68pts ("expecting 60-65 but with the upside of a bit more"). HIT Neal, 64pts ("expecting 60 and you should be safe"). HIT Buzz, buzz, buzz. Great article. Huge respect for your diagnosis of fantasy hockey numbers. ;) - Pengwin7 Tue, 17 May 2011 07:03:45 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3682-projections-projections-we-all-love-our-projections-2011#comment-14042 Excellent article. Just to make one point though about the "Fourth Year". My definition - has played four seasons of 25 games or more. And yes, there is absolutely a trend here, but I always caution it is a small one. A brief breakdown: Year 2: 15% Year 3: 20% Year 4: 25% Year 5: 20% Year 6: 10% Year 7+: 10% In my Hockey News article from 2003 that outlined this, about 56% of all fourth-year players actually improved their offense from Year 3 (based on 230 careers of players from the 2002-03 season). About 28% of all fourth year players saw their numbers increase by over 25%. - Dobber Tue, 17 May 2011 06:57:50 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/3682-projections-projections-we-all-love-our-projections-2011#comment-14041 I wanted to test myself at predictions so I peeked at names and scrolled down as fast as possible without seeing the actual numbers. I'm going to go read the article in a second. Here goes: Berglund, 58pts Stastny, 68pts Neal, 64pts - Pengwin7 Tue, 17 May 2011 06:56:08 +0100