Comments for The HockeyNomics’ Verdict on Martin Brodeur at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 31 out of 20 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Sat, 25 May 2013 23:38:31 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10130 is hits and blocked shots, due to the use of team employees instead of NHL personnel to collect it. - Repent Tokyo Sat, 27 Nov 2010 11:49:28 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10127 Interesting info, again there are so many intangibles that go into 'greatness',but any info that sparks debate im all for. It was just in the mid 70's when a similar debate was common regarding Ken Dryden on the Habs vs the other top goalies of his prime:Resch,Parent,Vachon,Palmateer,Esposito. Sure Dryden didnt face as many shots as some of his peers (Vachon never had a good team in front),but most goalies will say facing fewer shots is tougher. How do you quantify dealing with the pressure of playing in Montreal,NY,Toronto vs knowing you have Lafleur,Shutt,Lemaire,Cournoyer to bail you out,give you a cusion? Im still waiting for the NHL to adopt Roger Neilsons concept for powerplay time required to score vs what we have now that considers a 2 second opportuinity the same as 5 minutes. With all the stats/data we have in major sports today-that might be the most flawed. - Larry Sat, 27 Nov 2010 11:05:37 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10097 Hey Ed, Separating team defense from goaltending is extremely difficult to do. In fact, it’s difficult even when watching a game, live (though I’m sure some fans would disagree). The problem is due to the dynamic flow of hockey, there aren’t many measurements. But it’s all about logic; think about how YOU would do it. When you have some idea, try to see if the data exists to help you out. That’s how the clever analysts did it with shot quality. And when you think about it, it makes sense: Once you know the difficulty of any shot, you can calculate whether a team defense is above or below average. And as Alan Ryder (who pioneered the work) says in the paper, “if defense is better than we thought, then goaltending must be worse (and vice versa)”. That might be hard to swallow, but what he means is, if two goalies have a .929 save percentage, but one plays behind a terrible defense (give up higher quality shots), then that goaltender must be better than his stats indicate. As far as putting someone else in Brodeur’s skates, we DO have a proxy for that: his back up. Granted, that’s a feat with Brodeur because he’s so damn durable (which I argue is a huge chunk of his value). But, you can compare how his backups have performed in and out of New Jersey to get an idea how the Devils can (well, could. Not so much anymore) inflate a goalie’s stats. Check them out for yourself and see what you think. Crude, but effective. Marginal information gains are what it's all about. -Darcy Norman - Darcy Norman Thu, 25 Nov 2010 14:45:43 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10090 A good peripheral stat to simulate how goalies would do on different teams and it seems a good way to quantify team defence. To argue statistically about the "best" goalie ever, you need to define "best" by a combination of stats, not just achievements (of which Martin has many). Until then you are attacking/defending apples with bananas......and any Monty Python fan can tell you how to defend yourself against a man armed with a banana (+-5%, 99 times/100) - moosesinhooses Thu, 25 Nov 2010 06:26:44 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10087 All very good points Darcy and I'm impressed that you're willing to provide more information on the background of your analysis. There are many factors that can affect a goalie, and it certainly gets messy when you consider that different goalies would react differently given the same situations. The defence might limit the opposition to 3 shots per period.. which could be a blessing or a nightmare depending on who you put between the pipes... So, where I wholeheartedly agree that "[i]a team's defense can strongly influence how hard a goalie's job is[/i]"... How can we determine which way the influence will tilt? I sometimes wonder if it would be possible to put another goalie into Brodeur's skates and see how the numbers would translate... - Ed Murdoch Thu, 25 Nov 2010 04:54:33 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10081 Confirms what I've suspected for years! Thanks for the great info, and I'll be looking up this book immediately... - shook81 Wed, 24 Nov 2010 19:33:07 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10079 And since it's been asked a couple of times: The analysis isn't really capable of determining "best ever", since it depends on play by play data, which is relatively new. That leaves us stranded with recent history. Off the top of my head, Luongo and Tomas Vokoun were consistently solid performers. Oddly, they played on teams on the opposite ends of the spectrum for much of the analysis; Luongo getting peppered on a bad Florida team, Vokoun playing behind a solid defense in Nashville. - Darcy Norman Wed, 24 Nov 2010 18:00:28 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10078 Hey Tokyo, I didn't "invent" any criteria, standard criteria were merely expanded upon. Just like how at one point we didn't record ice time, but now we do. This allows us to look at two players with similar statistics and say, "Hey these players scored the same amount of goals, but this guy did it in one half the ice time". That's relevant, no? As we record more and more data, we have to put it to use. How do you choose to determine the quality of a hockey player, in this case a goalie? Is it wins? Is it save percentage? Is it goals against average? Each of those measurements has noise in it, with the most prominent being that a team's defense can strongly influence how hard a goalie's job is. The purpose of deeper analysis is to try to tease out some of the outside influence, and get that much closer to the truth. When you do that, sometimes what you find flies in the face of "common knowledge". None of the metrics used in the book are perfect, but many were developed by some smart people with a stake in the game (you mention Corsi numbers). So, implicitly we ARE arguing about the merits of statistical analysis, as it appears you assume that the measurements we have are good enough without ever having read the methodology and logic behind things like SQNSV (which have been published free on the internet). Again, there is/was no agenda. Brodeur being "overrated" was simply a product of people looking a little deeper into how we rate goalies. There are legions of fans who find that kind of digging unecessary and harmful to their enjoyment of the game. That's fine. On the other hand, there are others whose careers depend on finding an edge in the data. Hockey is a business after all, and getting more performance per dollar is crucial in a salary cap world. As far as marketing for the book, well, too little too late, as the book is already over a year old. But I'll take what I can get :) Cheers, -Darcy Norman - Darcy Norman Wed, 24 Nov 2010 17:46:19 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10077 Just for the sake of argument, how can we account for the fact that maybe Brodeur was good enough to play well under the New Jersey style of play. This is statistical analysis that doesn't allow for any "control" factor here because we can't compare Brodeur in his prime on hew Devils team compared to Broduer in those same years on other teams. So, I think the reason why these sorts of discussions are interesting and great for speculation - and not of any real practical value - is that they cannot be tested in much of a real scientific way. Keep it up though, it's good to look at and say "Hmm, interesting." - doulos Wed, 24 Nov 2010 17:39:25 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10076 Who is the greatest goalie of all time according to this stat then??? - David Wed, 24 Nov 2010 17:20:56 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10075 in terms of it being eons ahead of treating all shots equally - well, not if you are analyzing patrick lalime... - Repent Tokyo Wed, 24 Nov 2010 17:01:07 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10074 but that is not what commenters have been debating. rather, they have been questioning the importance of the stats chosen by the writer to play such a prominent role in the analysis of brodeur posted above. - Repent Tokyo Wed, 24 Nov 2010 17:00:28 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10073 Hey Brent, Thanks for the post, glad you enjoyed the book. To be clear, SQNSV was a metric originally developed by Alan Ryder, with great work done in the area of shot quality done by both he and Ken Krzywicki. Google them if you have any interest in this area of hockey. Someone in the thread asked how, specifically, shot quality was calculated. This was done by parsing the play by play data and segmenting the shots according to distance, and in some cases, type along with their propensity to go in the net. So, a rebound on the doorstep is a "higher quality" shot than a shot taken as the player crosses the blue line. It's a bit crude, but is eons ahead of treating all shots equally. People who dismiss the validity of a metric like SQA or SQNSV forget one thing: if we don't account for it, then we're UNDER rating a team's (in this case, New Jersey) defense. In other words, what slightly diminishes Brodeur's statistics is a testament to how good the Devils played D. Finally, there isn't a whole lot of point arguing the merits of statistical analysis. Some people get it, some don't. But sometimes the intention of statheads is misinterpreted. The purpose of deep analysis isn't to prove that intangibles don't exist, but rather to understand the tangible first. And as far as hockey goes, there's much to be learned from what we do measure before we're close to needing to understand the things we don't. Cheers, -Darcy Norman - Darcy Norman Wed, 24 Nov 2010 16:56:43 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10072 I found it an intriguing read but like many of the other "metrics" out there I think they stay in the realm of interesting conversation starters and don't go beyond that. Is Brodeur the best ever? Impossible to say. But having watched him play over the course of his entire career, what he has accomplished, and the way he has accomplished it, are nothing short of stunning. - doulos Wed, 24 Nov 2010 16:27:52 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10069 Meant defencemen. - sheldon Wed, 24 Nov 2010 14:24:10 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10068 All I can say is I bet lidstrom, Pronger, mcinnis, bourque, etc for all star goalies would love to argue that their 30 foot + shots weren't irrelevant lol. Good read, but kind of a puff piece. Lol. - sheldon Wed, 24 Nov 2010 14:23:39 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10067 "If that team gives up fewer goals than expected, it is ASSUMED that they gave up fewer quality scoring chances, and vice-versa." Umm....can this really be assumed? So many outside variables. - David Wed, 24 Nov 2010 14:11:11 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10064 So, basically, this author invents his own unique statistical criteria for hockey, and then judges athletes based on these criteria. Sounds a lot like how Corsi numbers were developed, and we all know how well that concept was embraced by the sport. It's a great way to be controversial and sell books, of course. I have no problem with different points of view on the sport, they're fun to read, but this is great marketing for his book. - Repent Tokyo Wed, 24 Nov 2010 13:15:49 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10062 Definitely agree with this. Same reason why Columbus and Ken Hitchcock's defensive system inflated Pascal Leclaire and Steve Mason's stats respectively during his tenure. The quality of saves against is lower on a team that plays tighter defensively as most shots come from the halfwall or outside the prime scoring areas. - Victor Deng Wed, 24 Nov 2010 11:45:28 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3272-the-hockeynomics-verdict-on-martin-brodeur#comment-10059 Ok... So who is the best? It has to be someone, right? Especially considering that all impartiality has been removed and this is strictly a study of numbers. - Kyle Wed, 24 Nov 2010 09:45:43 +0100