Comments for Left Wing Lock(out): Are LWs Relatively Scarce This Year? at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 9 out of 9 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Tue, 18 Jun 2013 21:11:02 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3109-left-wing-lockout-are-lws-relatively-scarce-this-year#comment-8485 This is primarily aimed at those who are in a straight points pool that uses positions, but the logic still works for multi stat pools if you have a nice way of assigning an overall point value to a player based on his total skill package. I have been in a straight points pool for about 12 years where we need to draft 3 LW's, 3 RW's, 3 C's, 3 D's and 1 goalie so I have come across the position shortage many times and have found a fairly easy solution with the help of some excel formulas. There is normally 12 of us so that means the top 36 players get drafted at each postion for skaters. So I will calculate the projected points for the 36th player for each position and use that as my comparison when drafting. For example let's say the 36th left winger will get 45 points, 36th RW will get 55 points and the 36th C will get 65 points. I am drafting in round 3 and the best player available is a center projected for 80 points. The best LW is projected for 65 and the best RW is projected for 70. Here's the logic and math which tells me that my best option is to draft the 65 point LW. If a center is my last pick in the pool I will get a 65 point player, but if I take a LW I will only get 45 point player so in essence I gain 20 points for that round by picking a C (65-45). So with that logic before I can pick a center in any round of the draft he has to be projected to score at least 20 or more points that a left winger and at least 10 or more points than a right winger to make up for any shortcomings I will encounter if I have to pick a LW or RW in the last round. Since the 80 point center is only better by 15 points on the LW for round 3, I will lose 15 points in that round by picking a LW, but I will gain 20 points back in the last round when I pick up my center and be up 5 points overall. I would only lose 10 on the RW, but then only gain 10 by drafting a C over an RW in the last round so it is a wash. Now 5 points isn't a lot, but that is just for one round. If you execute this logic for every round of the draft and gain a few points each round you will gain a significant edge to start the pool. Now this is the basic logic and over the 12 years I have tweaked my excel formulas to account for tiers and large gaps in positions so that it is even more accurate. It has served me well over the years and it gives me a very sound assesment of the value for each type of position within each round. - Colin Thu, 23 Sep 2010 20:56:03 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3109-left-wing-lockout-are-lws-relatively-scarce-this-year#comment-8353 you totally missed the point by using dobbers list for this. Dobber can tell me a player can play LW all season, but if it never gets put into yahoo it does me no good. The problem is that it is not as clear as to positions as baseball and football are (a 3rd baseman plays that spot, there cannot be confusion about it), basketball has the same issue with centers. The classical model of a freakishly tall guy playing center is fading to another powerforward. I personally feel that yahoo is doing that on purpose to generate a position scarcity. It makes fantasy more strategy oriented if you have to account for a thin position. I have also found that there are a few LW that do not have the rank they should. I would take Huselius as a LW2, he will be good for 60 points. I am not sure why that gives him such a terrible ranking when he was solid last year. - notoriousjim Thu, 16 Sep 2010 05:41:21 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3109-left-wing-lockout-are-lws-relatively-scarce-this-year#comment-8345 I agree with the scarcity of LWers, however I feel that in Yahoo leagues, you can still get good value if you miss out on top LWers. Here are a few that are ranked quite low but could help you with solid depth. Laich 143 Wolski 163 J.Jokinen 189 Sharp 212 Huselius 223 Neal 239 McDonald 275 Fleischmann 280 Michalek 370 And depending on your categories, they could have even more value (e.g. FOW). So, if you miss a top LW and can land at least 2/3 of these players, it's not all doom and gloom. Sometimes depth is more important. - horrorfan Wed, 15 Sep 2010 22:41:06 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3109-left-wing-lockout-are-lws-relatively-scarce-this-year#comment-8335 The LW tip is, IMO, the most useful piece of fantasy hockey knowledge I have read this offseason. Anybody drafting at the end of the 1st round turn in a snake league should be either considering going LW/LW or LW/G with their picks. - Pengwin7 Wed, 15 Sep 2010 13:01:41 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3109-left-wing-lockout-are-lws-relatively-scarce-this-year#comment-8332 RE: My Articles... Maybe they have some use after all... But yeah I'm up to about 40 mocks now and each and every single one has been the same conclusion, LW run very very thin near the end. The top tiered LW are definitely quality as they are probably higher producers than RW, but unless you have the #1 pick you probably won't land AO. Kovo, Heatley, Parise, Sedin are pretty much gone by round 1 or middle of round 2, which means if you've bypassed a LW in your opening round then picked up a goalie in the 2nd round you've pretty much missed the boat on a quality LW. Hopefully in round 3 you have access to Nash, Marleau or Ryan, but with guys like Zetterberg, Lecavalier, Kopitar, Richards, Carter, Perry dangling there, it's bloody tempting for someone to skip a LW once again. By the 4th/5th round, with 8 teams already grabbing their first LW, you're kinda stuck with guys like Cammy, Vanek, Burrows (not a fan) as your number 1 LW and the future is surely not looking good at the moment. If you missed the boat again... you're looking at Elias, Penner, or Gagne, now compare one of those three to AO, and you're out close to 60 points, and like 150 SOG just in 1 roster slot... My suggestion as mentioned in my article is probably to grab your LW early possibly even your first 2 LW before your first RW. I know it's bloody hard to do, but bypass the Zetterberg, Lecavalier, Kopitar, Richards, Carter, and Perry and go after the Nash, Marleau and Ryan... At the end of the day if you missed out on one of those C, Jokinen, Connolly, Zajac are all being drafted 100 some slots later, yet within the same ballpark in stats anyways. - Ryan Ma Wed, 15 Sep 2010 12:06:18 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3109-left-wing-lockout-are-lws-relatively-scarce-this-year#comment-8330 :'( Brent, I'll look for you in the mock drafts. I haven't tried the hockey one in Yahoo, but the NFL one was sweet. I don't mind a shortage now and then, but I can see my squads getting pummelled later in the season when Yahoo and Fantrax start handing out LW status to the centers and Rw's NOT on my team! At least Tyler Kennedy managed to get C,LW status. He's going to be a monster in the Comish League! :D - Rad64 Wed, 15 Sep 2010 11:50:10 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3109-left-wing-lockout-are-lws-relatively-scarce-this-year#comment-8329 buy cheap on Filatov while you can! - Andrew Wed, 15 Sep 2010 11:19:27 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3109-left-wing-lockout-are-lws-relatively-scarce-this-year#comment-8327 And it comes in the name of Magnus Paajarvi. - Peter Nygaard Wed, 15 Sep 2010 10:15:32 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/17-archives-other-articles/3109-left-wing-lockout-are-lws-relatively-scarce-this-year#comment-8326 All you need to know on this topic: Go into Yahoo!, under Players, and pull up all LWs. Then organize and rank all players with LW eligibility in order of actual ranking (rather than O-Rank) for the 2009-10 season. You get: 1 Ovie 2 Parise 3 Heatley 4 Kovie 5 Marleau 6 D Sedin 7 Burrows 8 Ryan 9 Sharp 10 Nash 11 Laich Yes, that's not a typo. Brooks Laich is the 11th best LW available in Yahoo! pools based on total 2009 performance. Sad that he could be some poor soul's number one LW! By the way, I think the focus in this article on blended (i.e., multi-position) rankings is somewhat misguided. Even if the 10th best RW is far superior to the 10th best LW in raw, actual value and expected point total, one would still expect them to be ranked around the same position based on relative, positional value. Right? - D M Wed, 15 Sep 2010 10:01:46 +0100