Comments for The Business of Fantasy Hockey Part II - Intrinsic Value at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 12 out of 12 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Sat, 18 May 2013 13:30:17 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/jeff-angus/2999-the-business-of-fantasy-hockey-part-i-intrinsic-value#comment-7356 Thank you I can't wait to promote all three parts as a set. Let me know an exact date if you can, so we can hype in advance. - Dobber Wed, 28 Jul 2010 13:03:53 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/jeff-angus/2999-the-business-of-fantasy-hockey-part-i-intrinsic-value#comment-7354 [b]Ma[/b] - Definitely agree on depth chart. This is why we said "There are many, many, many more factors that can and should be used." We were hoping to get ideas like this in the comments as to other important factors to consider. [i]So is spot security more valuable than depth chart? or the other way around?[/i] I don't think you can make a blanket statement with regards to either argument. The qualitative factors can't be measured, so in a way they simply need to be considered in the aggregate. You could make the argument for either factor being more important on certain NHL teams. As I've been thinking about this article, I really think head coach is one of the more overlooked factors in fantasy hockey. It has such an influence on fantasy production. Think back to Anaheim. For goalies (Hiller vs. Giguere), obviously you need to weigh spot security and depth chart. But a certain amount of spot security in Anaheim is totally different from any of the other NHL teams if you're in a daily league because Randy Carlyle would never announce a starter. You were always at risk of starting the wrong guy and I saw how owning a good goalie in Hiller backfired. This is a factor that has to be weighed in the aggregate along with spot security, depth chart, and countless others. In the end, we obviously need to prioritize the most important factors as it applies to our league, but it needs to be flexible. There are so many wrinkles to take into account. - Mike Colligan Wed, 28 Jul 2010 12:09:37 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/jeff-angus/2999-the-business-of-fantasy-hockey-part-i-intrinsic-value#comment-7352 RE: Angus hahahah we definitely have... we gotta flex our writer's muscles somehow right? I just think with more competition there's actually more negatives than positives when it comes to fantasy hockey... I mean if Giroux sucks there's like 6 guys with talent ready to jump on that spot. All it takes it one of them to get hot or find chemistry and Giroux's fantasy value is done. Much like Filatov in CLB, but he's even worst because he actually needs to beat out the players ahead of him rather than having the inside track and just keeping it. Which I guess comes down to spot security right? So is spot security more valuable than depth chart? or the other way around? - Ryan Ma Wed, 28 Jul 2010 11:45:50 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/jeff-angus/2999-the-business-of-fantasy-hockey-part-i-intrinsic-value#comment-7339 I believe we've had this debate before, Ma! I was just using arbitrary numbers, Giroux won't be seeing five minutes of PP time. Perhaps another player would have been a useful example. Briere, maybe? I think Giroux gets priority for PP time above other forwards in Philly. Fat Palloon, part two will be out over the next 7-10 days. Thanks! - angus Wed, 28 Jul 2010 07:15:07 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/jeff-angus/2999-the-business-of-fantasy-hockey-part-i-intrinsic-value#comment-7325 Thanks for the great read, guys! - David Wed, 28 Jul 2010 05:09:29 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/jeff-angus/2999-the-business-of-fantasy-hockey-part-i-intrinsic-value#comment-7323 RE: Ice Time Great read guys, and they really do mirror a lot of the ways I approach fantasy hockey or write about in my articles... Only thing that I'm going to argue about is the importance of depth chart. I think you have to pay close attention to depth chart because that's going to completely determine fantasy value (intrinsic value). Claude Giroux playing on the Preds would produce more intrinsic value than him playing in Philly because of the lack of depth. He would get top-line time and most important "spot safety" in NSH than he would in Philly. Ice-time and in a way power-play ice-time is capped. There's 60 minutes in a regular hockey match, 5 more if you count OT. 5 players on the ice at once that means that there's roughly 300 mins to spread around per game. Those 300 mins need to be spread amongst the team. If you take out 1/3 of the time to D that leaves around 200 minutes to spread amongst the offense. Most teams run about 12 forwards a game, so on average a player should receive 16:40 per game. Of course that number will fluctuate depending on top-line and fourth line players... Giroux averaged roughly around that mark (16:36) during the regular season (2:45 on the PP). In the playoffs he upped it to 18:44 and 3:26 but that's because 4th liners like Asham, Carcillo, Betts averaged 11:14, 10:32 and 11:19 respectively. That won't happen in the regular season. I know you were just using arbitrary numbers to make your case, [i]Giroux may only see 12-15 minutes per game at even strength, but he will be an integral part of the top power play unit in Philadelphia, and his ice time should climb to 17-19 minutes per game.[/i], but only [b]7[/b] players in the NHL garnered more than 5 minutes of PP time last season, their names are Kovalchuk, Streit, Gonchar, Richards, Green, and Ovechkin. If Crosby, Malkin, St. Louis, Stamkos, Kopitar, Getzlaf, Thornton, Heatley the list goes on... can't get 5 mins of PP ice-time what makes you think that Giroux would? So if we give him a more reasonable 3 minutes... that might bump him to 15-16 minutes per game, which isn't anywhere near the 17-19 that he needs in order to be productive fantasy wise. Also one thing that you mentioned is spot security. The problem with a deep team is that the competition will be greater. More talented team mates, means that coaches will have more alternatives to experiment with. If Giroux doesn't work with Richards, you have Leino, Zherdev, JVR, Briere, Hartnell, Carter as the alternatives. As you mentioned he could go from top-line to 3rd line from game to game and possibly shift-to-shift. It then becomes a situation where it's "offense by committee" (Thanks JHM)rather than a clear split in production between top-line and 3rd line. I'd seriously head into the season wary of teams like STL, CLB, PHI who are major potential offense by committee teams. Depth chart is definitely something that you can't just bury your head in the sand about. - Ryan Ma Wed, 28 Jul 2010 01:33:20 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/jeff-angus/2999-the-business-of-fantasy-hockey-part-i-intrinsic-value#comment-7321 Great piece guys. Angus, on an unrelated note, what happened to "Off Season Musings"...that was great but only covered the first few teams alphabetically. Any chance we get to hear your "musings" about the others? I really got a lot from that article too. - Fat Palloon Tue, 27 Jul 2010 20:44:03 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/jeff-angus/2999-the-business-of-fantasy-hockey-part-i-intrinsic-value#comment-7317 Angus (and Mike), That was the best piece I have ever seen from you on here. That was brilliant work! I love how you applied the definition from the finance to fantasy realm. Going to read Part I right now. Summers are perfect for 5-6 part series (I did one a few summers ago) and you guys are breaking things down to perfection. I am already a better fantasy manager because of it! Cheers and keep up the great work guys. - Justin Goldman Tue, 27 Jul 2010 17:37:47 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/jeff-angus/2999-the-business-of-fantasy-hockey-part-i-intrinsic-value#comment-7299 [b]ducat2[/b] - A great question. Luckily, the [i]quantitative[/i] factors and data are all readily available, and many on this website. Perhaps in a future article we can share some of our best sources for data and quantitative information. When it comes to [i]qualitative[/i] factors, you have to be a bit more careful. The internet has made it so easy to have access to great local knowledge of all 30 NHL teams and many of the qualitative aspects mentioned above. Just consider your source. Many writers Monday-morning-quarterback and make their fantasy hockey analysis justify what's already happened. You want to find independent thinkers who can separate themselves from that temptation and give you an honest read on a player or team situation. [b]mike hess[/b] - your approach definitely makes sense. I think ruling out players is a great starting point. If you can reduce the clutter, it makes it easier to focus on the important players. However, at some point you have to switch to this approach and decide whether to buy or sell. If Player A and Player B both "have intrinsic value in your league" as you said, how do you choose which to pursue? How much are you willing to spend to acquire each? By assessing intrinsic value as well as market value (price to acquire) for each player, only then can you make the best decision for your team. - Mike Colligan Tue, 27 Jul 2010 05:45:06 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/jeff-angus/2999-the-business-of-fantasy-hockey-part-i-intrinsic-value#comment-7297 Great article. I turn this on its head and spend as much time looking for who I would not draft because there is no intrinsic value in fantasy league. Lashoff would be listed as 555 (not to be drafted in my look. - mike hess Tue, 27 Jul 2010 04:55:34 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/jeff-angus/2999-the-business-of-fantasy-hockey-part-i-intrinsic-value#comment-7296 This series is power, Angus and Mike. It brings a whole other level of approaching your assets. Love the business side of the coin. Thanks! - GMGates / 'gatticus' Tue, 27 Jul 2010 04:16:02 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/jeff-angus/2999-the-business-of-fantasy-hockey-part-i-intrinsic-value#comment-7293 Great article. I am a new poolie, so pardon my ignorance. How does one determine intrinsic value appropriately when games can only be watched via television, and not live at the arena? What are some major things to look for when assessing forwards, defensemen, and goalies? Thanks for your help. - ducat2 Mon, 26 Jul 2010 20:55:51 +0100