Comments for I Like...Big...Busts and I Cannot Lie at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 21 out of 20 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Thu, 23 May 2013 12:55:49 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-3017 Absolutely the best title for an article Ryan! I'll be following suit with the Eastern Conference on Thursday. You may see Lecavalier, Spezza and/or Vanek's names mentioned. - Russ Wed, 02 Dec 2009 08:17:15 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-3005 I have O'Sullivan, Vanek, and Spezza... oh the joy! - Ryan Lenethen Wed, 02 Dec 2009 04:24:13 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2999 RE: Spezza, Lecavalier, and Vanek Sorry at Dobber, I take care of the Western Conference, and Russ Miller takes care of the East. So I didn't want to step on his toes on the players that he's responsible for. In case people are wondering wheres the rest of the "busts". - Ryan Ma Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:08:59 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2998 RE: Ruutu I honestly just pulled names outta my head, and didn't do any research into it. I looked at what players had trade value so that the Canes could get something back in return, and Ruutu's name stuck into my head. I guess what I'm trying to say is that with or without Ruutu I don't think they're a contending team. So if keeping Ruutu means that they finish 24th in the league compared to 30th, the only thing that it jeopardizes is their future... At least if they can finish 30th they'd have a shot at Hall or Seguin, so there's upside for the future. If they keep on trying for the playoffs they'll just be stuck in the same position as they always are with either a mid-round draft pick or a first round exit, which leaves them in the same position for next year. My thoughts are if you aren't contending rebuild the right way!!! (like Pits, Wsh, Chi, LA) - Ryan Ma Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:06:33 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2997 RE: Throwing out bad games Also I didn't ignore your comments, I was in the process of typing them up while you posted. I didn't want to half ass it and just throw in a few words here or there. I really wanted to justify my post and if you haven't read it. It's right above yours... Also I'm not trying to analyze Mason's numbers on a statistical level. What I'm trying to do is to establish a point that Mason's numbers in general aren't that bad despite his poor overall stats. What's causing his numbers to look so poorly on an overall level is due to the blips that is caused by the occasional 6 GA game, or the 8 GA game. If you look at the rest of the games, 4 out of 5 his sv% and GAA is actually pretty decent. It's not a game by game basis that he's allowing 3+ goals and stopping less than 90% of the shots that he's faced. There's valleys and peaks with his production or lack there of, and not a consistent day in day out poor effort across the board. That's the only point that I wanted to establish with Mason. - Ryan Ma Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:00:21 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2996 You other poolies can't deny That when a super-star starts the season with itty bitty stats And a round thing ("0" pts) in your face You get sprung - Ian a.k.a ziggy Tue, 01 Dec 2009 17:19:08 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2995 Not on the list but should be: Spezza Lecavalier Vanek - adam Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:15:22 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2994 Sorry Ryan - but there is no way that someone like Ruutu gets dealt at the deadline after being re-signed so recently. Corvo and Whitney are possibles, but Ruutu is off the table. - Repent Tokyo Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:14:52 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2993 RE: SOG vs Point Production correlation There isn't a 100% direct correlation as you pointed out, but there is a pretty close correlation. Face it, if a player shoots 10 times, he has 10 chances to put the puck in the net. If he shoots once, he has one chance. You can't tell me that a person who shoots once will have a higher chance of scoring more points than a person that shoots ten times... that's my argument. Of course there are numerous outside factors that play a role in point production. Injuries, player's mindset, the system that the coach imploys, ice-time, their line mates, 4th year breakouts... but a lot of those factors you can't control, SOG is probably the easiest indicator to see how productive a player is, but not the ONLY factor. Phaneuf was dealing with an injury last season, so even though he had more SOG, his point totals were hampered because of it. Enstrom if you look at the seasonal stats he had 10 points in the first 43 games (because of the inclusion of Schneider and Bogo) and 22 in the final 34 (when he was given the green light)... So if you compared his 2nd half numbers to this year's numbers the stats are very similar. Another factor, is that the Thrashers have gotten much better as a team as well. In 2007-08 ATL was 22nd ranked in terms of offense, this year they're 1st... So Enstrom's point totals are also linked to the team around him getting better as well. With Getzlaf, if you look at the overall goals and SOG they have remained pretty consistent 25,24,25. It's the assists that really have fluctuated 33,58,66... Does SOG have anything to do with it? perhaps, but is it the lone factor no... Same could be said for Datsyuk and how the team around him played a role in his point production... Maybe if we summed it up by saying, although there are many factors that influence point production, SOG is probably the easiest quantifiable indicator to indicate how productive a player is. Obviously there are going to be exceptions, but generally speaking that fits the mould for 90% of the players in fantasy hockey so we'll keep it at that. - Ryan Ma Tue, 01 Dec 2009 13:17:11 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2992 Travis, I am not sure if your comment had anything to do with what I said....if it did, I think you missed my points. What did Ryan GENERALLY say about SOG that you agree with? If you are related him, well we're not all privy to your conversations and what you are referring to. Ryan did not generally say anything about SOG in this article, he was using specific examples. And I never said he was wrong. Also, be careful with "throwing out" bad games for the purpose of statistical analysis. If you are not going to bother with MY opinions Ryan, ask Dobber he knows about advanced statistical analysis. Throwing out the worst games for observational purposes is valid but if you are going to throw out the worst games games for final conclusive analysis then an equal number of best games have to be removed or the analysis can be biased and/or flawed....massaged/manipulated to make things look a certain way. Even throwing out x number of bad games and an equal number of good games is slightly not so proper. Results are what they are, they can't be changed. Throw out Game 7 of last year's Stanley Cup Final and all of a sudden the Red Wings had a successful playoff run, tied as co-champion. Throw out Datsyuk's best game of the playoffs and I finish tied for second in my playoff pool instead of tied for 1st. Throw out Zetterberg's best game and I finish in third. If an athlete performed a certain way, good or bad, that was performance was earned. - SuperOne Tue, 01 Dec 2009 13:14:52 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2991 RE: Phaneuf vs Chara Keeper leagues are honestly hard to tell. I think Phaneuf has a much higher long term potential than Chara only because of his age (24 vs 32). If you are in contention for this or next year, I'd make the trade, but if you are rebuilding for the long term, keep Phaneuf. - Ryan Ma Tue, 01 Dec 2009 12:23:36 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2990 RE: Whitney I've been a fan of Whitney for the last couple of years, just cause he's always so under the radar and reliable. But this year it seems that they would be better off selling off pieces and rebuilding. The way I see it is that if they keep all the oldies they'll keep destroying their future. They ruin their chances of getting a breakout player, and they'll either just make the playoffs (and be booted out in the first round) or just miss it... I really do see them dealing pieces like Ruutu, Whitney, Corvo at the deadline, but if they remain a Cane, their value probably isn't going to be ideal. O'Sully has higher upside, the Oilers really have nothing much to play for, and Hemsky is out, which means that they'll probably try to give the younger kids a bit more wiggle room to determine their future. That plus O'Sully is in his magical 4th year, but tends to warrant a breakout. - Ryan Ma Tue, 01 Dec 2009 12:20:19 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2987 RE: Mason Sorry I didn't clarify Seven of his last nine contests... taking out the NYR and Detroit game. - Ryan Ma Tue, 01 Dec 2009 10:54:09 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2986 [i]If you look at the overall numbers, they’re actually quite mediocre, but if you throw out the two blowout performances against the Rangers and the Red Wings, he actually has a .936 save percentage and a 2.07 GAA along with a 3-1-3 record in those seven contests[/i] What seven contests does this refer to? - Chris Lavell Tue, 01 Dec 2009 09:50:14 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2985 I agree with Ryan about SOG. If you take all of the players on a team and sort them by SOG, you will typically get the most fantasy relevant players in the top 5. There are some anomalies of course. Look at Jason Blake and Brown in LA, those guys are SOG psychos and can barely maintain fantasy worthiness. - Travis Ma Tue, 01 Dec 2009 08:45:59 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2984 erik johnson is well on his way to being a productive member of the Blues this season from a fantasy perspective. - Repent Tokyo Tue, 01 Dec 2009 08:39:24 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2980 I just love the title!!! ;D - Jake Tue, 01 Dec 2009 08:04:25 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2979 Oops, sorry about the formatting there, I did put spaces. Getzlaf 2006-07, ANH, 82, 25, 33, 58, 203shots (2.47 per game) 2007-08, ANH, 77, 24, 58, 82, 185shots (2.4 per game) Datsyuk 2003-04, DET, 75, 30, 38, 68, 136shots 2005-06, DET, 75, 28, 59, 87, 146shots 2006-07, DET, 79, 27, 60, 87, 207shots - SuperOne Tue, 01 Dec 2009 07:51:58 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2978 SOG....seems like that stat is being overrated a bit as it seems like it is being made out to be a direct correlation. Phanuef, you argue his points are dropping at least in part to shots on goal....yet: 07-08: 263 shots, 60 points 08-09: 277 shots, 47 points? He was still the go to guy last season, had MORE shots than the previous season yet his production dropped by a significant 13 points? Another example....Enstrom 07-08: 105 shots, 38 points 08-09: 86 shots, 32 points (on pace) 09-10: 112 shots, 64 points Granted there is some correlation here but are you telling me he is on pace to shatter his career high in points by 26 because of those extra 7 shots on goal he is on pace for compared to 07-08? Getzlaf 2006-07ANH82253358203shots (2.47 per game) 2007-08ANH77245882185shots (2.4 per game) He shattered his career high in points by 34! And he actually took slightly less shots per game than the previous season. Okay I decided to even look at Datsyuk, look at this beautiful example.... 2003-04DET75303868 136shots 2005-06DET75285987 146shots 2006-07DET79276087 207shots ONLY ten more shots on net from 03-04 to 05-06, yet he scored 19 more points....then 61 more shots on net, and he scores the exact same number of points as the previous season! Look, I am not making a huge deal out of it and I'm not saying you are wrong or anything like that. I too have used shots on goal in analysis, but I guess I'm saying it's not a perfectly linear relationship and to be aware of other factors, as I'm sure you already are. Sometimes less shots on goal means more assists. - SuperOne Tue, 01 Dec 2009 07:48:48 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/amato/2400-i-likebigbusts-and-i-cannot-lie#comment-2976 Would you trade Phaneuf for Chara in a keeper league? G, A, PIM, +/-, PPP, SHP are categories. - Mike Colligan Tue, 01 Dec 2009 07:40:10 +0100