Comments for Top 300 Players at http://hockey.dobbersports.com , comment 1 to 195 out of 20 comments http://hockey.dobbersports.com Thu, 23 May 2013 18:56:08 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-25504 number - yes, upside. I wouldn't trade my Granlund for O'Reilly if he threw in two first round picks. - Dobber Fri, 03 May 2013 09:11:45 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-25503 Isle B. - still feel that way? lol the rankings are to help you both compete now and build for the future. If you listened to my rankings three months ago, you would have Ovechkin and he would have cost you a song. You can't discount that kind of upside over 18 months of futility. 36 months, maybe. frozenpools - formula is this year, last year, distance from prime age (set at 25), proven vs. unproven, injury proneness, strength of team and a small bonus for the power of a "name" - i.e. if a superstar sucks, but still has weight in trade talks. - Dobber Fri, 03 May 2013 09:10:58 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24977 @4horsemen: I agree. The 3rd factor is luck which I think it is more important for predicting the future as SOG tends to be fairly constant for a player during his career. After the Feb 10 vs Pitts, Clarkson's shooting percentage was 18%. At that point its a good time to expect his goal scoring rate to regress to the league average of 11% (or whatever his career average is) and sell high. His current shooting percentage is 8.6% so your right, its probably a good time to buy low on him (goal-wise). I think its a good idea to estimate goals and assists separately as shots on goal alone can undervalue a player such as MSL or Kadri (who is another sell high). - frozenpools Mon, 08 Apr 2013 05:25:03 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24973 @frozenpools - Two of the most rock solid indicators to use when predicting future production: SOG and TOI. Here are the league leaders in SOG: Ovi, Kane, Clarkson, Parise, Nash, Zetterberg, Skinner, Max Pac, Stamkos, Kessel, Moulson, Tavares, Williams, Brown, Crosby, Seguin, Gaborik and Semin. [b]Anything stand out here?[/b] Clarkson is averaging 18 min/game and 3:38 on the PP. As long as he's logging these sorts of minutes and shooting the way he has his ranking is nuts. His shooting % is now well below his career average. Use his ranking at your own risk because a market correction would actually have him scoring a lot of goals before this season is out! - 4horsemen Mon, 08 Apr 2013 02:38:39 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24966 @4horsemen: Its likely that Dobbers formula uses a weighted formula of the current season combined with 1-3 recent seasons. The current year would have the highest weight (it should, its the most recent data and the objective is typically to win the current year). So Clarkson having a bad streak and dropping 31 spots isn't a drastic change. His initial hot streak combined with his his recent games are more in line with his career numbers. He's just back to expectations - an average offensive player. Last year Scott Hartnell did the same thing but kept it going the full season. During the year, his ranking likely steadily grew. Clarkson wasn't able to sustain his scoring pace and reverted to his career numbers. Id imagine there is more to the formula to predict the future rather then painting a picture of the past (pp toi, shooting %, assists vs pts on/60). But that's Dobber's magic ;) - frozenpools Sun, 07 Apr 2013 14:44:29 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24920 @Dobber Yes I do. The Caps are rolling now, but they were lousy earlier in the year and Ovechkin and Backstrom were ineffective in a way that players like Datsyuk, Tavares and Giroux, for example, would never be. Ovie's upside is higher than most but his downside is a lot lower than many of the other top forwards in the league. If you counted on Ovechkin and/or Backstrom to be your top forwards the past couple of years then your season was probably over 20 games in. If you built your team's offense around Datsyuk, Giroux, JT, Toews, St. Louis and/or the Sedins then you have probably been competitive. - Isle B. Wed, 03 Apr 2013 18:37:25 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24866 Do you have archived rankings beyond 3 months? Would be great to compare longer term trends. Maybe a separate Excel download? - erneufel Tue, 02 Apr 2013 08:26:20 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24857 I'm amazed that you have Granlund and O'Reilly neck and neck; O'Reilly's been playing some great hockey since signing in COL. Meanwhile, Granlund basically played his way out of a roster spot, with Zucker and Coyle handily out-playing him. I'm hoping your answer to this one is "upside". - number54 Tue, 02 Apr 2013 05:15:10 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24856 If you're not swayed by short trends then why did you just drop him 31 slots for a cold streak?!? He's still playing top line minutes and shooting a lot....below his career average now it should be noted. You're now recommending people value him on par with Arnott :'(:'( - 4horsemen Tue, 02 Apr 2013 05:09:40 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24846 horsemen - hopefully Clarkson has now convinced you that he's not. Isle B - still feel that way? Moral of the story - it's a fickle business, fantasy hockey. But I try my best not to be swayed by short trends and try to stick with the bigger, long-term picture. Clarkson has 4 points in last 21 games. Ovechkin has 24 points in his last 19 games. Market corrections with those two are almost complete... - Dobber Mon, 01 Apr 2013 11:59:14 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24461 Ovie, and all the other key Capitals for that matter, are way too high. Part of their value was in the wide-open style that the team ceased to play years ago. Plus a lot of their scoring depth is now gone. They could go blazing up and down the ice because they also had Semin and Fleischmann (and even Fedorov) and could also score dirty goals with Laich and Knuble. Sadly, they are now a different, and much more pedestrian, team. Ovechkin, Backstrom and Green will never come close to hitting those numbers again and Carlson arrived just as the party was ending. - Isle B. Mon, 04 Mar 2013 07:06:56 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24455 What does this guy have to do to convince you he's for real? - 4horsemen Mon, 04 Mar 2013 05:18:49 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24434 Ross please read the Please Read above My comment is a little too much but still think Eriksson should be higher Only read the extra paragraph afterwards... my bad Still love this site and all the work you guys put into it Reminds me of the hockey fans article you linked the other day - TangerineDreamTeam Fri, 01 Mar 2013 21:22:04 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24430 Tangerine, If you are suggesting that Loui Eriksson is more valuable than Dustin Byfuglien or Alex Pietrangelo, in a league with positional (C, W, D etc) requirements, most (including me) would compeletely disagree. A 50-pt dman is worth more than Loui Eriksson, in a points only league, and Byf and AP are more like 60+ pt dmen. In my league, I would never trade Byf or AP for Eriksson, that would be a steal for the other side. - ross10019 Fri, 01 Mar 2013 06:21:46 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24427 How is he behind 2 men who have never had 70 points!? He's only done it 3times... in a row... by age 27... dot dot dot A slow start can bring him down in value fine, but explain to me that you would trade Loui for BOTH D.Buf and A.Pie, so I can join your league and make that trade! (trading him for just 1 would be sooo silly, why not make it 2 players ranked higher!) The amount of times i have read the point system at the top of the page and been not told not to squabble over the small point gaps in players does not matter to me because a.) 27 year old puts up 278points in 325 game over the past 4years b.) Jamie Benn is 19 spots higher, has never outpointed him and is solely based off potential, and what his start was better? how did he do in january? c.) Dmen ranked higher than him will NOT have 70 points anytime soon, i'd wager on that - TangerineDreamTeam Fri, 01 Mar 2013 05:38:23 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24412 Where is hagelin? - frozenpools Thu, 28 Feb 2013 05:43:23 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24378 #1 with a bullet....if there's an argument to be made against this I'd love to hear it. It took For anyone who hasn't tuned into a Pittsburgh game yet this year please do yourself a favour and witness the best player in the world making the league his b*tch! - 4horsemen Mon, 25 Feb 2013 12:26:38 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24072 Far too high: Alex Ovechkin Too high: Nail Yakupov Too low: Jamie Benn Not low enough: Nathan Gerbe Only because you asked. Been enjoying and relying on your lists for a while. Thanks. - mcarmody Tue, 05 Feb 2013 03:14:11 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24048 Come on...I realize a few years ago you could say toews was more valuable to his team then fantasy pts leagues...but he's been putting up pt per game for his career. That is more than you can say for a dozen ahead of him. I'm not a toews owner! Dobs ill trade you kessel, getzlaf or staal for toews anyday!! - ddp Fri, 01 Feb 2013 16:20:34 +0100 http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/home-mainmenu-1/26-rankings/105-top-300-players#comment-24046 Dobber, There is no question that he was the most prolific goal scorer and the most exciting player in the world from 2005-2010, but isn't it time for a little bit of a market correction on AO? Obviously, he still has the upside and the durability, but this now the 4th season in a row in which he seems to be declining. I'd rather have Tavares, Giroux, the Sedins, Datsyuk and any of the Oilers' young guns than Ovechkin at this point. - Isle B. Fri, 01 Feb 2013 13:41:27 +0100