Every offseason, fantasy GMs prepare for their annual keeper league drafts in hopes of landing that coveted young player who could become the next best thing. Once rookies like the Jeffrey Skinners, Matt Duchenes and Bobby Ryans start filling up the stat sheets on a nightly basis they become virtually impossible to obtain via trade. As a result, it becomes imperative to draft your own superstars and hopefully watch them thrive on your next championship team.

Unfortunately, these once coveted rookie superstars sometimes hit that dreaded "sophmore slump" that is all too common during the long NHL season. After posting strong rookie campaigns, the touted superstars sometimes find themselves struggling to find the back of the net causing their fantasy owners some unwanted grieve and doubt. Less than a year after drafting these once untouchables, itsuddenly becomes difficult to trade them for anything close to fair market value.

Bryan Little, the 31-goal sniping rookie, was the talk of the fantasy world in 2008-09. The Edmonton native quickly realized that the sophmore slump was definitely not a myth as he struggled in his second full season ending with 13 goals and 34 points.

That same year (2008-09), Devon Setoguchi was riding shotgun with set-up man Joe Thornton. Setoguchi piled up 31 goals and 65 points and was rocketing up the scoring charts. Setoguchi was,technically, not a rookie but it was his first full season in the NHL. As fast as Devon rocketed up the charts he also came plummeting back down to earth in his second full season recording a lowly 35 points. Tyler Myers, Jordan Staal, and Peter Mueller have all been victims of the sophmore slump in one way or another. Each season, fantasy GMs can easily find several examples of the sophmore slump and it isn't necessarily a NEW phenomenon.

Drafting superstars who put up consistent numbers in their first few seasons is difficult to do and as history shows, even the NHL's all-time best players have shown that the sophmore slump is the real deal.

Mike Modano - Detroit Red Wings
"Mikey Mo" was one of the youngest drafted Americans in the NHL's history when the Minnesota North Stars took him 1st overall in the 1988 Entry Draft. During Modano's rookie season (1989-90) the 19-year old posted fantastic numbers finishing the season second in rookie scoring (behind Calgary's Sergei Makarov) with 29 goals and 75 points. The Michigan-born star had a decent sophmore season but his production dipped by over ten points. The sophmore season was just a blip on his radar early in his career as his production was fantastic in the following three years (77 points, 93 points and 93 points respectively) before an injury riddled 1994-95 season.

RY: 80GP - 29G - 46A - 75P
SY: 79GP - 28G - 36A - 64P
Third Season: 76GP - 33G -45A - 77P


Teemu Selanne - Anaheim Ducks
The "Finnish Flash" is a very unique example of the "sophmore slump" (and I hesitated putting him in this article but he is worth mentioning because injuries can often cause or contribute to the SS). Selanne was the Winnipeg Jets' first-round selection (10th) in the 1988 draft. Selanne posted the best rookie performance in the NHL's history scoring a remarkable 76 goals (current NHL record) and 132 points (also a current NHL record). How silly are those numbers for a rookie? Selanne continued his good play during his sophmore season recording over a point-per-game. Teemu's sophmore pace would have put him at 89 points if he were to play the full season; however, when comparing his rookie season's 132 points to the 89 points is a considerable drop-off and deserves to be mentioned. The "finnish flash's" sophmore slump would never be considered a "slump" if he had not of posted such gawdy rookie numbers. But, a step back is a step back. After Selanne's 76 goal rookie season he has only cleared 50 goals two other times

RY: 84 GP - 76G, 56A, 132P
SY: 51GP - 25G - 29A - 54P
Third Year: 45GP -22G - 24A - 46P

Jarome Iginla - Calgary Flames
Iginla was the Dallas Stars' 11th overall selection of the 1995 Entry draft and was quickly dealt to the Calgary Flames for Joe Niewendyk. The Kamloops Blazer' star did not step directly into the NHL following his draft year but he did show great signs in his first full NHL season. Iginla recorded a respectable 21 goals and 50 points as a rookie during the 1996-97 NHL season placing him fourth in team scoring and leading all NHL rookies. The following season Iginla had his share of struggles and failed to best his rookie totals from the season before. Jarome finished his sophmore season with 13 goals and 31 points placing him seventh in team scoring.

Rookie Year (RY): 82GP - 21G - 29A - 50P
Sophmore Year (SY): 70GP -13G - 19A - 32P
Third Year: 82GP - 28G - 23A- 51 P

Niklas Lidstrom - Detroit Red Wings
In Lidstrom's rookie season (1991-92), the world's greatest active defenseman made a lot of NHL GMs look silly after passing over him at the draft. The Detroit Red Wings found their franchise player during the 1989 draft when they selected the well mannered defenseman from the SEL's Vasteres with the 53rd pick of the 1989 draft (3rd round). Lidstrom came out of the gates flying in his rookie season leading the Red Wings' defense core and finishing tied for third in rookie scoring with Pavel Bure as a defenseman (behind only Tony Amonte, 69 points, and Kevin Todd, 63 points). Lidstrom took a step back during his sophmore season finishing second behind Steve Chaisson in team defensemen scoring with 41 points. The shoe-in hall-of-famer Lidstrom has been an example of consistency over his long NHL career but even the greats go through learning curves early in their careers.

RY: 80GP -11G - 49A - 60P
SY: 84GP -7G - 34A - 41P
Third Year: 84GP - 10G - 46A - 56P

Guy Lafleur - Montreal Canadiens
The "Flower" is one of the best players to ever play the game of hockey. Expectations are always astronomical with the fans of Les Habitants but the leading scorer of the Montreal Canadiens has always been able to satisfy the fans. Lafleur, the 1971 first overall selection, posted good rookie numbers before dropping off slightly in his second season with the Canadiens. However, Hab fans did not take long before they were chanting "Guy, Guy, Guy" when he broke out for 119 points in his fourth season. Lafleur would go on to post six consecutive seasons of 115+ point seasons beginning in his fourth season.

RY; 73GP - 29G - 35A - 64P
SY: 70GP - 28G - 27A - 55P
Third Year: 84GP - 10G - 46P - 56P




Next season when it is time to prepare for your fantasy drafts be sure to remember that even the best players in the history of the NHL experience the dreaded sophmore slump (statistically anyways). The most difficult part of managing your fantasy team is deciding whether to "sell high" on a rookie after a breakout season and when to use patience with a prospect going through a slump. Identifying the player's trends (points, work ethic and consistency) throughout his career will help you make the right decision.

Are YOU considering selling high on Jeff Skinner?

Depends what you mean by selling high, because the guys you mentioned bounced back in their third season. So if you're investing for the long term just bite the bullet and stash the guy on your bench if need be. But some people think "18 year old with 65 points = 19 year old with 90 points" and that's what you're looking for if you own Skinner now.

Also recall that Ovechkin dropped to 92 points after a 106-point rookie season.

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"Selling High" (definition) - verb. to trade a player when his perceived value is higher than his actual value.

If someone believes Skinner is a 90+ point player (and he actually is not) and is willing to pay accordingly then it would be smart to sell high. (disclaimer: 90+ points is just used as an example and I am not saying that he is or isn't a 90 pt player. It's just an example)

The point of the article was just to bring light to the fact that many of the greatest hockey players have experienced sophmore slumps. For the most part, I think most fantasy GMs are well aware that they have to be patient with most highly touted prospects but there are a few prospects that play over their head in their first season and then fall back down to earth. For example, I would be looking to move a player like Logan Couture (or at least shopping him to see what you can get) as I don't see him posting numbers like these every year.

But again, my intention of the article was to show that the sophmore slump trend has been around for quite some time and not necessarily speak of "selling high" - that is a whole other discussion.

THE Great One however is exempt, oh boy is he ever.

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good read Dean
yea, I agree that Selanne wasnt really a slump more, he got injured, so he couldnt put up the same or close to the same amount of points

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Not trying to discredit the article or anything. It's a great read and I like seeing people put work into digging up the truth about hockey careers. Just like individual seasons, careers have their ups and downs. Just ask Mr. Ovechkin about his current season. It's nice to read up on some history and use it as a teaching tool for outlining careers of new players.

I was kinda answering your cliffhanger question at the end of your article. I wouldn't sell Skinner unless it is VERY high.

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No Problem Eric. Thanks

Re; Skinner - neither would I. He has been a favourite of mine after watching him last year for the OHLs Rangers

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