Trade Watch: Anaheim Ducks - Fantasy Sports Forums

duballstar014 · #1 11-22-2010, 08:42 PM

In this series, I will look at each team, analyze their current roster, and decide how badly they need to make a trade, as well as exploring the likelihood of current management making that trade. I have researched trades the team has made within the last 12-24 months, what the current cap situation looks like, what the current farm system looks like, and have assigned each player a status of what line they would best be used on, what line they are currently being used on, and a games played prediction based on age and the previous 3 seasons (if possible). I look at each player individually, so it is possible you have a team with 15 second liners and 0 first liners, or 10 first liners, 3 second liners, and the rest fourth liners,etc.

Team background:
The Ducks are a team that won the Cup in 2007 with arguably the best defense in the league, a mix of talented, young (cheap) forwards who contributed above and beyond what was asked of them, as well as rock solid goaltending. Since then, they have lost Pronger, Niedermayer, and Beauchemin, and many criticize their current defense. They dished out the playoff hero J.S. Giguere and are leaning on the rising star, Jonas Hiller, with a capable (and underrated) McElhinney behind him. On offense, the young Getzlaf, Perry, and Ryan lead the way, with the aging Selanne, Koivu, and Blake holding up the 2nd line.

Current strategy
Anaheim wants to be competitive, and the elder forwards definitely would like a Cup, but they have a few tweaks to make before they can consider themselves a Cup contender. Management has picked up some gems in the last couple drafts and would prefer not to sell the farm for a run now. Instead they're likely content with the goal of winning just above .500 and making it into the playoffs, developing their youth as quickly as they can. Any playoff series wins are major bonuses for the young crop.

First line players
The Ducks have five 1st line players, all of which who are being used properly - Ryan, Getzlaf, Perry, Visnovsky, and Hiller. By my calculations, you can expect anywhere from 73-80 games played for the forwards, which is pretty good from a durability standpoint. Barring any serious injuries, the Ducks have a great first line.

Visnovsky is the only Ducks defenseman who is worthy of first line duties right now. That in itself is a problem, but the next problem is that Visnovsky is 34 years old, and we should only expect 66 games out of him. Right now, Anaheim is getting away with using Tony Lydman on the top unit, but they desperately need another #1 D if they want to win more games this year.

Jonas Hiller is a capable #1 goaltender who is young and reliable. He's also locked up until 2013-14, so no changes necessary here.

Second line players
It's my opinion that the Blake-Koivu-Selanne line is best suited for third line duties. Are they capable point scorers? Yes. But they're also very old and eating up top 6 minutes that should be going to players trying to develop and take over once the old men are out of town. I also think that the skill and chemistry is there with these three so their third line treatment should mimic Philly's third line treatment. They'd still get a lot of ice time and a lot of opportunities, just slightly less than the second line.

With that being said, I still think Selanne is 2nd line capable, giving me seven 2nd liners for Anaheim - Selanne, Sexton, Lupul, Lydman, Fowler, Sbisa, and McEhlinney. Sexton is a very underrated forward who needs 2nd line duties to really get his career jump started. Iâ€™ve watched him quite a few times and he's definitely worth an L2 RW job. If Lupul ever gets healthy, he would be best used as a 2nd line LW. Fowler and Sbisa would both fit in best as the #3 or 4 defenseman, but only if they have a veteran partner to skate with. Fowler has taken this position and Sbisa, when called up, plays on the third pairing. Lydman is a steady enough defender for 2nd pairing duties, but isn't a #1 defender for a full 82 games (or a playoff series for that matter).

As I mentioned above, it's my belief that McElhinney is a very underrated and capable goaltender. He's also signed to an inexpensive contract, which is why I think he's a perfect fit in Anaheim.

If Sexton were to stick in the NHL for the full year, I have him pegged at 80 GP, which gives the Ducks a perfect 2nd line RW. Lupul, on the other hand, should only be expected to play 51 GP according to my formulas, but common sense tells me he could miss even more than that. As you can see above, I don't think the Ducks own a 2nd line center right now.

Third line players
This is where the Ducks seem to have a little too much excess. I have Blake, Koivu, Bonino, Mara, Sutton, Lilja, and Brookbank as third liners. Bonino needs third line duties since he hasn't really had enough experience to show he's worthy of the #2 spot, while the vets Blake, Koivu, Mara, Sutton, Lilja, and Brookbank all would best be served at third line duties, keeping the heavier minutes open for the younger guys. This should also increase the total games played for the veterans (at least in my opinion). Using Selanne at third line duties makes the most sense to keep him healthy and productive, even though I still think he's capable of L2 duties. Blake-Koivu-Selanne should most definitely be the Ducks third line for now, but this also restricts them from bringing up younger guys (like the newly acquired Maroon) and sticking them on the third line.

On defense, Mara, Sutton, Lilja, and Brookbank are all #5 or #6 defensemen. Brookbank could easily be cut loose, leaving the other three as 5, 6, and 7 d-men, which isn't all that bad. None of these guys should be expected to play even 60 games on the year, so it's possible we could see some more of the AHL crop.

Fourth line players
The Ducks have six 4th line players - Marchant, Green, Voros, Carter, Parros, and Chipchura. Green was recently placed on waivers, so this number is now likely only five. Chipchura is also injured, which leaves them with four, a reasonable number. Marchant, who has played center most of his career, is primarily used at LW in Anaheim and he plays his role well. Carter is a nice 2-way center who can play the PK and still has many years ahead of him. That leaves Voros, Parros, and Chipchura. None of those are very attractive options, but Chipchura has shown flashes of promise when in the lineup. If a trade were to go down, it should move Parros or Voros out of the lineup and look for a 4th line RW.

Up and coming
The Ducks prospect system was pretty ugly a year ago, but it's getting much better. RW Kyle Palmieri has already seen NHL time this year, but is still a year or two away from playing a regular role on this team. LW Matt Beleskey has been up and down in the NHL and could be a decent third line plug, but it has yet to be seen how well he can contribute. D Brett Festerling has played well at times, but is still young. The Ducks defense simply isn't strong enough to keep Festerling up yet. Newcomers LW Patrick Maroon and RW David Laliberte are both promising and should see call ups this season. Laliberte played on the top two lines in Philadelphia and could be a nice short term option if the Ducks need him. Ducks fans will definitely like 23 year old Maroon when he gets his chance.

duballstar014 · #2 11-22-2010, 08:47 PM

Where the changes are necessary:
The Ducks have their first line figured out perfectly. They also have their third line figured out perfectly, but they are using that line as their #2 line. This will cause long term problems as the veterans are more injury prone logging more minutes than they should, and critical top 6 minutes are going to a line whose average age is almost 38 years old. When Joffrey Lupul is healthy, he and Dan Sexton should skate together on the 2nd line. Nick Bonino is the logical choice to center these players and with that being said, they'll likely occupy L3 out of the gate. If this line forms chemistry, they should definitely bump the old guys down to L3 though. There is a very real possibility this doesn't work out, but it's the best moves for the team. If it doesn't work out, this would normally force the team's hand at picking up some good 2nd line help. Adding one or two solid 2nd line players will also give the Ducks insurance in case one of the top line players goes down for an extended period of time. They have some pieces that they could develop up there, but those players need 2nd line minutes before they can get first line minutes and be viable injury substitutes. Since health is a concern for Lupul and Bonino doesn't have the experience yet, I have 2nd line LW and 2nd line C as the Ducks' forward holes.

Defense is likely the most criticized part of the Ducks roster. Anaheim needs a #1 defenseman to support Visnovsky and that should go to a player who has at least 3-4 years of NHL experience. Anaheim is using Lydman in this support role now, but that's not the answer. The Ducks also have 4 third line defensemen, which is too much, but running with 7 shouldn't be an issue. The quick fix here is dumping Brookbank or Lilja. Holes on defense: #1 or #2 defenseman.

Goaltending is perfect. No changes necessary.

Will the changes be made?
Ducks management will most likely not bring in a top 6 forward, but there is a possibility that they move someone like Jason Blake. Blake would be a perfect player to trade, as the Ducks would lose $4M in salary, and free up a crucial LW spot for guys like Beleskey, Maroon, and Laliberte. I wouldn’t expect the Ducks to be able to fill their 2nd line forward holes with this trade, but it would open up a spot to develop youth the way they need to and hopefully solidify a reliable 2nd line by next year.

The home run trade would be trading Jason Blake for Sheldon Souray. The Oilers aren’t getting any value out of Souray right now, but the Ducks could use him in a huge way. Edmonton doesn’t want to make this deal, but if Souray wastes away long enough, you just never know. If Anaheim could land a top defenseman, they’d be all over it. The problem is that they don’t exactly just fall out of the sky. They’re doing the best they can to groom Sbisa and Fowler as top 4 defensemen as a short term solution, but if this team makes a trade for an impact roster player, it’s going to be for a #1 or #2 defenseman.

What happens if the trade is made?
If the Ducks get a top defenseman like Souray, they should instantly be a much tougher team to beat. You should be able to expect a lower GAA for Hiller, as well as fewer shots against per night. For your forwards and defensemen, you can expect a better +/- rating as well as a more balanced offensive attack.

You shouldn’t expect them to make a trade for a 2nd line player unless Lupul has a major setback, but once Lupul returns, the Ducks would be wise to move the old men to third line duties, which should actually give you better performance out of Selanne, Koivu, and Blake.

Dean Youngblood · #3 11-22-2010, 08:53 PM

There is a 2nd half? Haha

duballstar014 · #4 11-22-2010, 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dean Youngblood

There is a 2nd half? Haha

It's fixed now. Let me know if there are questions/suggestions lol.

BlackGold · #5 11-23-2010, 12:37 AM

Have you seen Souray play these last 2 years? I don't think the ducks would want him, he's a little more of a liability (on the ice and on the pocket) than he is an asset.

Interesting how you say Koivu should be a 3rd liner. If so, who takes over as 2nd line center? All the players you listed are wingers.. but I'd be interested in who you think might be better for the 2nd line center spot.. you could be onto a bit of a sleeper here if Lupul is healthy with Selanne\Sexton on the right.

duballstar014 · #6 11-23-2010, 08:04 AM

The Ducks can and will still use Koivu-Selanne-Blake in the 2nd line, but they should be giving those minutes to younger guys who will be the next generation of Getzlaf-Perry-Ryan. Basically, they'll have a line 1, and a line 2a and line 2b. Having one half of your top six at age 36, 37, and 40, isn't the smartest move. They'll do good for a while, but they're going to get hurt logging all those minutes.

I am actually not a huge Souray supporter, but I think he would be the closest thing to a #2 D-man that the Ducks can bring in, not to mention at the cost of someone like Jason Blake. I remember a lot of people bagging on Bryan McCabe before he went to Florida, but he still has a lot of fight there. Maybe he's not the exact fit they need, but they do need a #1 D-man and if one opens up, I'm sure the Ducks will be on the phones. Adding that type of player allows Lydman to drop down to the 2nd pairing where he belongs, and keeps the Mara, Sutton, Lilja, and Brookbanks at #5 and #6.

So with that being said, the biggest holes I see the Ducks having is a 2nd line center and a #1/2 defenseman. Those are the players they should be targeting in trade, unless they really feel confident in their farm system taking those roles. I like Fowler and Sbisa, but they should get a top Dman now. Bonino might work as the #2 center in a few months if they decide not to go after one in trade.

metaldude26 · #7 11-23-2010, 10:37 AM

I can't help but laugh at the irony behind a Souray pickup. Does acquiring the top two defensemen from one of the worst defensive teams in the league over the past couple seasons really constitute a solution? I'm not criticizing, I'm just commenting on how I find that quite amusing.

Now a few more serious comments. What the Ducks need is pretty much what every team in the league is after. Seems blatantly obvious to me that Cup winning teams are built strong up the middle and on defense. I mean what teams in the league aren't looking for second line centermen or minute eating defensemen? Get in line Ducks and get ready to poney up the prospects/picks cuz those assets aren't coming cheap.

If I may, I'd like to offer up some suggestions of players the Ducks might go after to fill some holes.

Ron Hainsey - Atlanta - I'm not sure Atlanta wants to deal him or move any of their defensive depth but they are paying a guy 4.5 million to play third line defense. I think he'd be a capable top 4 guy and would be worth going after if the price is right. I think maybe a bottom pairing guy plus a pick or a prospect could get the job done. Atlanta would benefit by clearing out some salary and adding a piece for the future while not really hurting their depth. It's not a perfect solution as Hainsey isn't exactly a game breaker but those don't come cheap.

Marc Savard - Boston - Kind of a reach in my mind but if he's available the Ducks would be dumb not to take a shot, he'd fill that second line center role more than well and at a very palatable cap hit. Not sure how this deal would go down as the Ducks don't have the cap space to take him on outright and I'm not sure they have the correct assets to burn to land him but maybe Boston would be willing to use this deal as the deal that opens up cap room and lands them the bargaining chips necessary to acquire their own coveted defenseman.

Stephen Weiss - Florida - Seems like he should be available if the Panthers are really trying to rebuild. He's miscast as a top line center but would kill as a second liner. His 3.1 million cap hit wouldn't quite fit for Anaheim but it would be close. You know the Panthers would accept futures for Weiss in the form of both picks and prospects. The question is whether or not there's a bidding war.

Bryan McCabe - Florida - Along the same lines as Weiss and while I don't think Florida is eager to trade their Captain he also has an expiring deal.

Cam Barker - Minnesota - Not saying that he's a guy Anaheim should go after but I wonder if Minnesota isn't thinking they should just cut their losses with this guy and try and pass the buck on to anyone who will take it. With Burns playing like his old self and Zidlicky back healthy he's useless to Minnesota so maybe the Ducks take a chance.

Derek Morris/Adrian Aucoin - Phoenix - If OEL starts ripping up the AHL and Phoenix decides they want to bring him back up one of these guys becomes expendable. They are also not worth much if Phoenix falls out of contention. Much like Hainsey, neither one is the minutes eater that Anaheim wants but they are both very solid veterans that could slot into the top two defense pairings.

Tomas Kaberle - Toronto - For all the reasons he's been discussed in trade rumors before. I think he'd be a little redundant with both Fowler and Visnovsky already there but I don't think the Ducks would be too picky. Of course there's bound to be a bidding war if Kaberle really is to be dealt so the Ducks really need to offer something substantial.

Kevin Bieksa - Vancouver - Another guy who's been rumored to be on the block. As a righty he'd fit in well on the Ducks and with Salo's return approaching I think it's more of a "when" rather than an "if" the Canucks will deal him. Dealing with cap issues lowers the asking price a good amount as well so he may be one of the cheaper options available. He'd instantly slot into the top D pairing for the Ducks.

Tomas Fleischmann - Washington - I know I'm reaching here a bit but the guy is having a tough time earning minutes in Washington and even though he's a Boudreau favorite he's still getting scratched. With guys like Perreault, Gordon and Bouchard kicking down the door to get into the Washington lineup a move could be in the best interests of both parties. He's also a flexible sort so he could play center or wing for the Ducks. Not sure what the Caps would want in return here though.

duballstar014 · #8 11-23-2010, 01:11 PM

Just because a player doesn't play well in one city doesn't mean he won't play well in another city. ; )

I welcome anyones criticism or suggestions so I appreciate your comments. Fro your list, probably the best player the Ducks could inquire about is Bieksa. I laughed out loud when I saw you tell the Ducks to wait in line...the purpose of this article is to identify which positions should be targetd by a team and if its likely they'll pull the trigger. This wasnt a particularly easy one for me to write. I pulled a ton of data but struggled to figure out how to apply it. I look forward to fine tuning it as I go, so the more feedback the better for me.

Rajiabu · #9 11-23-2010, 05:43 PM

I'd like to see them go after a 2nd line winger, someone like Hudler or Zherdev. Both those guys are being under utilized currently and im sure would be putting up much better numbers on any other team.
Blake sucked at toronto and he sucks at anahiem, they need to move him but it will be hard.
________
SUZUKI GZ250

BlackGold · #10 11-23-2010, 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duballstar014

Just because a player doesn't play well in one city doesn't mean he won't play well in another city. ; ))

That is very true, Souray's suckitis could have been caused by the bad blood between him and the management.

Well if Anaheim throws in a decent pick or prospect, maybe this could be good for both teams, otherwise I don't see my Oil taking Blake to have a useless LW for 2 more years vs Souray for 1 more. Penner/Hall/Pajaarvi/Omark.. I think the oilers won't be looking for a LW like Blake.

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