what happened to Little Joe Pavelski??

It does not say that he is a recent graduate and was top 20 previously, but has completely disappeared from this list. Anybody have any ideas?

He graduated in March in the number six spot...there were no graduates in May, I left April\'s on there.B)

__________________
DobberHockey Rules
14 Team Keeper, points only, best 12 skaters 2 dman 2 G count. Playoffs count.
F - Crosby, C.Smith, Wheeler, Parenteau, Hudler, Clowe, Grabovski, Atkinson, Frolik, S. Kostitsyn, Marchand, Peverley, Tavares, Read, Brouwer, Bickell, Gionta, Setoguchi
G - Anderson, Hiller, Markstrom, Brodeur
D - Letang, Del Zotto, I. White, Kronwall, Brodin, Nikitin

A pretty awful prospect list if you ask me. At least Sheppard is getting some recognition, but for the most part, I strongly disagree with this list. Stuff that really puzzled me are...

Bochenski at 10: Sure he had a solid 2nd half, but he is 25 years old. I doubt he ever produces at a higher clip then he did, playing on a very bad Bruins team. Also, what did Bochenski do in the month of April to warrant a 24 spot jump? As far as I know, he had 4gp in the month of April and he was held off the score sheet in each of those 4 games. There are many! prospects who will produce more then him, and are better prospects, hell, I don\'t even consider Bochenski a prospect. 81 career games played, he is 25. He should be graduated imo.

Bobby Ryan dropping 9 spots: 2nd overall pick, drops 9 spots after tearing up the AHL. Makes no sense to me. Kid will be with the Ducks next season, and tear shit up. Brian Burke is very high on him.

St. Pierre at 30: This is laughable. He jumps 28 spots for being invisible in the AHL playoffs, 1 assist in 6 games. Sure he had a good AHL season, but lets not forget, he is 24 years old, and couldn\'t keep a job on one of the worst teams in the league, the Chicago Blackhawks. Looks like a career minor leaguer who chokes in the playoffs to me, definitely not the 30th best fantasy prospect in the world.

Setoguchi dropping 16 positions: After a slow start to the WHL season, Setoguchi finnished off on quite the roll. 36pts in his final 20 games of the regular season in the very defensive oriented. He has been the most dominant forward in the WHL playoffs thus far aswell, 21pts in 15 games. If anything this guy should be sky-rocketing up the charts, but no, he falls 16 positions. Makes no sense to me.

those are the main problems I have with the new rankings, there are many, many other less major aspects that I disagree with aswell.

Post edited by: Kowalchuk, at: 2007/05/15 22:16

dp

Post edited by: Kowalchuk, at: 2007/05/11 21:36

I\'ll address in general first - you HAVE to take into account how quickly these guys will give you a return. Bochenski - he will give you immediate 65-point return and help your pro team...or he\'ll be a bust. But you WILL know this year. That is more valuable than Setoguchi...or Ryan...who will each take four years or more to get to that point. A player hogging a roster spot for several years before he performs is not always worth the upside that he brings. If you have Bochenski and I have Ryan, I\'ll make that deal in a heartbeat and let you sit on a guy for a few years. Yes, Ryan may make the team in a year or two...but how long before he contributes? Corey Perry is at two years and counting...how long will Ryan be?

Anyway Bobby Ryan - he didn\'t drop, others just passed him. All the guys ahead of him are closer to giving you immediate return.

Guys - and Kowalchuk is not the first - stop insulting my list by calling it \"crappy\" or \"awful\" or whatever. Show me someone else\'s fantasy prospect list and I will just link to theirs from now on.

Please look at the ratings points. I can\'t stress this enough. So Ryan is 21st instead of 12th? So...instead of having a 62.3 rating he should have a 67 rating? Come\'on man, WTF! That\'s like saying you only got 62 Doritos in your latest bag instead of the usual 67. Is that worth writing Frito Lay and complaining? :angry:

Prospects are so tight in terms of keeper league value, that for you to get upset about anyone between 12th (67.3 rating) and 50th (57.3 rating) is retarded. I feel retarded just explaining this for the 50th time. Look at the ratings points. Look at the ratings points. Look at the ratings points.:sick:

The next person that complains about a guy who is ranked 23rd instead of 43rd...or vice versa...becomes an immediate clown for looking at the difference in ranking instead of the difference in rating. Immediate clown. It\'ll be instantaneous. It will almost be like an RSS feed picking up on the posting and automatically writing a clown article.

So Kowalchuk - with that perspective (looking at my ratings points...which I don\'t include for the good of my health...it is to indicate how close they are to each other), how is this list?
B)

(PS - look at the ratings points)

__________________
DobberHockey Rules
14 Team Keeper, points only, best 12 skaters 2 dman 2 G count. Playoffs count.
F - Crosby, C.Smith, Wheeler, Parenteau, Hudler, Clowe, Grabovski, Atkinson, Frolik, S. Kostitsyn, Marchand, Peverley, Tavares, Read, Brouwer, Bickell, Gionta, Setoguchi
G - Anderson, Hiller, Markstrom, Brodeur
D - Letang, Del Zotto, I. White, Kronwall, Brodin, Nikitin

Dobbs I may be a n00b, but I absolutely love your prospects list. Not to mention your top 300 list and goalie list. Hell I love your whole site. Thank you for taking the time to rank all these players as you see fit. I look forward to seeing how I perform next season against my FHL.

__________________
12 Team H2H - Keep 7 + 3(Farm)
G,A,P,+/-,PPP,GWG,SOG.W,Sv%,GAA,SHO
Centers:
N. Backstrom, R. Kesler
LWs:
A. Ovechkin, M. Cammalleri
RWs:
C. Perry
D:
S. Weber
G:
P. Rinne
Farm:
M. Neuvirth, N. Filatov, S. Shirokov

Gotta jump in here in defense of Kowalchuk - whether he is right or wrong in his views of the prospect list - I believe this site and particularly these forums need to allow for this kind of debate. It is one of the ways this site creates value. Seems to me, knowing one may get their ass chewed out for challenging the results of \"the model\" would make one reticent to do so.

Dobber, because of what you have built here, invested, passionate, knowledgeable fans like Kowalchuk are here making a contribution to our pool with information and perspective. I, for one value that, whether I agree with him or not. Last time I looked, the name of this site isn\'t www.dobberlovefest.com (although many of us addicted poolies feel that way about what we find here). Cut your clients some slack buddy!

Post edited by: Shoeless, at: 2007/05/13 17:58

__________________
Yahoo weekly starts 12 team league, keep 17 plus farm

GS, W, L, SV, GAA, SV%, SO G, A, P, +/-, PIM, SOG, GWG, PPP, SHP, HITS, FOW

3C: H. Sedin,Stepan, Stastny, R. Johansen, Hanzal, Anisimov,
3LW: Burrows, Vanek, Ott, Lupul, Dubinsky
3RW: Doan, Pavelski, Brown, Okposo,
6D: Franson, Doughty, Voynov, Subban, Markov, Gonchar, Karlsson
1Util:
2G: Price, Emery


Farm: (< 100 games): S. Elliott, J. Bernier, Galchenyuk, Etem, Eakin, Atkinson

The slack needs to be cut both ways - starting off with saying it is \&quot;awful\&quot; is not cutting slack.

Criticize the rankings and disagree with as much as you like, but don\'t criticize the work. Come on!
I just wanted to clarify - the ratings difference never seems to be looked at.

Kowalchuk - I\'m not on you about this, you were just the poor sucker that was the last straw - you know, the one that broke the camel\'s back (I\'ve had 10 or 12 different people openly insult the list via email or in the forum over the last two months, and after several beers I read Kowalchuk\'s and just felt a need to respond.) :blink:

Anyway, I\'d like to hear what you think, Kowalchuk, now that I\'ve \'encouraged\' you to inspect the ratings instead of the rankings. Is it as bad as you thought, now?

__________________
DobberHockey Rules
14 Team Keeper, points only, best 12 skaters 2 dman 2 G count. Playoffs count.
F - Crosby, C.Smith, Wheeler, Parenteau, Hudler, Clowe, Grabovski, Atkinson, Frolik, S. Kostitsyn, Marchand, Peverley, Tavares, Read, Brouwer, Bickell, Gionta, Setoguchi
G - Anderson, Hiller, Markstrom, Brodeur
D - Letang, Del Zotto, I. White, Kronwall, Brodin, Nikitin

Dobber wrote:

Yeah, I prolly shouldn\'t have called it awful. The raitings do make it less of a big deal, however, I still disagree with the list for the most part. I just don\'t get how Bobby Ryan and Setoguchi drop, even if its by a few pts, after they have clearly improved there status as a prospect. St. Pierre jumps many, many spots after his value as a prospect should have clearly decreased. I respect all the effort you put in your lists, and stuff, just not a fan of the prospect list. Your other lists are great for the most part. You have to realize, prospects are very hard to rate, and determine how good they will be, its not an exact science, and weird things happen. Opinions can differ greatly when gauging prospects. I have a question, how does the ratings work? Do the ratings mean how many pts that player will get per season in his prime?

I don\'t have the old ratings (unfortunately), but I don\'t believe I dropped Ryan and Setoguchi - I really think the other players were just pushed a little higher.
St.Pierre only went up 5.1 ratings points, likely because I bumped him to 80-point upside from 75. It\'s so tight between 20 and 70, that such a minor tweak shot him up the list.
Incredible regular season and from what I have seen and heard Denis Savard really likes him. He was undrafted, so he has been a late (very late) bloomer. But he is proving more and more that he belongs. He has done nothing but improve with each and ever year. He stumbled in the playoffs...this year, but last year he had three in four, while in the OHL he 35 points in 22 playoff games.
He will be ready in two years, and I gave him a 70% likelihood. Not unreasonable.

Ratings are just a combination of:
A. His upside (very most he\'ll get if all the pieces fell into place for him...within reason - obviously if a guy suddenly was put on Crosby\'s line, you would have push that number much higher)
B. How far away the player is from making your pro team (if he gets 50 points, that is not a pro team). So for example, Corey Perry would have had a \&quot;three\&quot; two years ago, even though I knew he made the squad.
C. His certainty of making it to the NHL - most players rate between 3.0 and 8.0, but Toews and Barker are 9.5\'s.
D. His fantasy rating (taken from the Top 300 list - it makes a small impact on their prospect rating)
E. His \&quot;type\&quot; makes a tiny impact. A power forward, a small player (\&quot;os\&quot, or a defenseman are slightly penalized - they take an extra couple of years to reach their prime.


I\'m always tweaking - every piece of info I hear when talking to colleagues, or read in the daily newspapers from around the world, or my other sources - I have that spreadsheet open 24/7 and I tweak the numbers all the time.

So everyone, if you see a guy who is 43rd and you feel he should be 18th, just keep in mind that we\'re talking about 5.5 ratings points which is something as simple as changing \&quot;ready in three years\&quot; to \&quot;ready in 2.5 years\&quot;...or \&quot;83-point upside\&quot; instead of \&quot;80-point upside\&quot;...or \&quot;72% likelihood\&quot; instead of \&quot;68% likelihood\&quot;. It\'s really that close, and it\'s tough to call. As long as draw the top 50 players to your attention, it should help you focus your research.

__________________
DobberHockey Rules
14 Team Keeper, points only, best 12 skaters 2 dman 2 G count. Playoffs count.
F - Crosby, C.Smith, Wheeler, Parenteau, Hudler, Clowe, Grabovski, Atkinson, Frolik, S. Kostitsyn, Marchand, Peverley, Tavares, Read, Brouwer, Bickell, Gionta, Setoguchi
G - Anderson, Hiller, Markstrom, Brodeur
D - Letang, Del Zotto, I. White, Kronwall, Brodin, Nikitin