I've been attempting to come up with some Filatov predictions this year and would like to hear what some of you guys think about my thought process here.

It's tough to come up with much of a comparison for him because of the way he bounced around last year but if you focus only on his KHL production this I what I've found:

As a 19 year old in the KHL he scored 22 points in 26 games (0.85 points per game). I can't find another player who came close to a point per game pace as a 19 year old......Tarasenko scored at a 0.57 ppg pace as a 17 year old and this is very impressive but not usefull for predicting NHL success because he's never been there. Ovechkin had a 0.73 ppg clip as an 18 year old with Moscow Dynamo and Malkin had just over a ppg pace as a 19 year old with Metallurg but I don't know enough about the league at that time to know if it's comparable to todays KHL. Radulov seems like the best example for how NHL and KHL production compare.

Radulov didn't play in the KHL until he was 22 and came up with a ppg total of 0.92.

If you flash back to his days in Nashville he came up with ppg totals of 0.58 in 06/07 and 0.71 in 07/08. So his PPG total over the four years since he entered the NHL looks like:

0.58 (06/07) 20 years old NHL
0.71 (06/07) 21 years old NHL
0.92 (06/07) 22 years old KHL
1.16 (06/07) 23 years old KHL

If you assume that Filatov could have maintained his scoring pace over an entire season then you could safely assume that his production as a 19 year old would have been very close to Radulov's production as a 22 year old. That same 22 year old scored 58 points the previous year on a Nashville squad that provided him a very similar calibre of teamates to those Filatov will have this year in Columbus.....substitute Nash for Karia, Huselius for Dumont, etc etc. The bottom line is that the team wasn't an offensive powerhouse and he wasn't handed any 1st line/1st powerplay unit minutes. One would be realatively safe in assuming that Filatov will find himself in a similar position to Radulov's from that year, 2nd line 2nd powerplay unit.

Now for the bold part of my prediction. If you can buy that Filatov would have matched Radulov's pace over an entire KHL season as a 19 year old then it shouldn't be tough to believe that he would have at least hit a point per game total as a 20 year old. I'd say that puts Filatov's development curve somewhere between one and two years behind Radulov's. This has lead me to conclude that if Radulov could score 58 points on Nashville two years ago, it wouldn't be unreasonable for Filatov to hit at least those numbers this year with Columbus. In fact, I think Voracek is due to bust out this year and combined with Brassard I think Filatov can surpass 60 points without all the stars aligning.

I think that putting Filatov at 60+ makes way more sense than having Eberle or Hall at 70+. I'll say right here that Filatov will outscore both of them!

Thoughts?

I think he can be 60+ this year as long as he can get in the top 6 early and stay there. But thats a big IF.

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I'm not sure I see it as such a big IF. Who is breathing down his neck for the 2nd line LW spot in Columbus? I think the spot is his for the taking and he'd really have to screw up to lose it.

If you are looking for realistic numbers then go with 15 goals and 20 assists for 35 points. There is no doubt that he is an elite sniper but if you look at the fact that only 55 players in the ENTIRE NHL scored 60+ points last season it is HIGHLEY unlikely that Filatov (or any other rookie for that matter) reach that mark.

That is basically what I was thinking. I would predict Huselius and Vermette to score 60pts way before I predicted Filatov. I would probably predict Voracek and Brassard to notch 60pts before Filatov... Are 6 guys going to score 60+ pts for Columbus? If so, look out Western Conference.

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14 Team Full Keeper - G, A, SO G (1), +- (.2), PIMs (.1), Shots (.05), Wins (2), SO (5)

Forwards: Crosby Neal Giroux JVR Voracek Getzlaf Ryan Hall Pacioretty E Kane Little Hodgson
Defense: Yandle Edler Carlson Bieksa Enstrom Schultz
Goalies: Luongo Rask
Bench: Stafford Hanzal Clutterbuck EJ Petry Kesler (IR) Weiss (IR) Versteeg (IR) M Staal (IR) S. Mason

Top prospects: Couturier Nyquist Coyle Kassian Faksa Saad Dumba Brodin Lack

OK, OK, you stick with your safe predictions. I'm calling Filatov an exceptional player here. I'm not claiming that he's like 'most' rookies. Are you discounting his near point per game production in the KHL? I'm not convinced that it WILL translate but which part of my comparison do you disagree with?

Out of curiosity, how many points do you expect out of Hudler this year? How many would you predict for Radulov if he was back tomorrow?



To answer the point of Columbus needing six players to break 60 points....it's not as far flung as you think. Take a look at the 06/07 Predators.....that's how I see this Columbus team shaping up

It could happen. I myself like comparing numbers, but you have to be careful you don't read too much into them. So many intangible factors come in to play, such as linemates, minutes of ice time per game, how the coach uses him, what division he plays in. The central division is probably the best division in the NHL at the moment, but when Radulov scored 58 a couple of years ago, it was one of the worst. Chicago hadn't emerged yet, St. Louis and Columbus were train wrecks.

I guess you just need to ask yourself: if it doesn't happen, how bad will it affect your team?

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10 team H2H Points-based keeper league

G, A, PIM, SOG, +/-
W, SO, SV, GA

C: H. Sedin, Backstrom, Stamkos, Kopitar, B. Richards, Krejci
LW: D. Sedin, Duchene, Cammalleri, Tanguay
RW: P. Kane, Wheeler, Callahan, J. Williams, Gagner
D: Letang, Kronwall, Goligoski, Carlson, Wideman, Carle
G: Quick, Neuvirth, Dubnyk

Farm: Holtby, Tokarski, B. Smith, Elliott, J. Morrow, Silfverberg

League Champion: 2009 and 2011

So I've looked into what you've said about the tough competition in the division and the numbers don't support what you're saying. When Radulov scored 58 points in 2006/2007 the total goals against for all teams in the Central division was 1103....last year is was 1132. Even though some of the teams have improved it hasn't had a negative impact on goal scoring at all. I even removed Columbus from the equation because they had so many goals scored against them and the numbers still don't suppor the theory.

Now I suppose a case could be made that St. Louis will be better with Halak but I'm not convinced that Detroit or Chicago will be any better this year and I'd guess that Nashville will hold steady. So if we say that STL alows 10 less goals than they did last year they'd have a very respectable 213 GA. 10ish goals.......I stand by the original prediction.

Would you rather have the likely number or some "What if all of the stars line up" situation? The advantage of this site is that there are a lot of people that follow things and can rationally break them down into reasonable likelyhoods. Sure Filatov could score 40 goals and put up 40 assists this season but the odds arn't good that he will. The problem with most "projections" when it comes to point production is that they are biased as the person has that player and 99% of the time they are over estimating the impact of a rookie in the NHL.

I like Filatov as much as the next guy, I think his skill level is insane... But I also am a firm believer that Ice time = points. There was an article I read a couple months ago that said he might not even be a lock to be a top 6 player to start the year. If he plays half the year on the 3rd line, half the year on the 2nd line... Lets just say he won't impact any fantasy teams in a positive way.

They will at BEST stick him with Voracek and Brassard. That means he gets 2nd line ice time... I think Filatov will be a 50pt player this season, +- 5pts.

To answer your other question, if Radulov came back I'd expect top line ice time, coupled with a huge skill level = big points. 75-80pts for a guy in his prime with all the prime ice team seems reasonable.

Hudler, I expect him to bounce between the 1st and 2nd line, so somewhere in between top line and 2nd line points. 60pts for Hudler to me seems reasonable.

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14 Team Full Keeper - G, A, SO G (1), +- (.2), PIMs (.1), Shots (.05), Wins (2), SO (5)

Forwards: Crosby Neal Giroux JVR Voracek Getzlaf Ryan Hall Pacioretty E Kane Little Hodgson
Defense: Yandle Edler Carlson Bieksa Enstrom Schultz
Goalies: Luongo Rask
Bench: Stafford Hanzal Clutterbuck EJ Petry Kesler (IR) Weiss (IR) Versteeg (IR) M Staal (IR) S. Mason

Top prospects: Couturier Nyquist Coyle Kassian Faksa Saad Dumba Brodin Lack