To address your follow up, one name for you: Ruslan Fedotenko!
Has had some amazing playoff runs but never could really translate his playoff game during the regular season on a consistent basis. Simply put, playoff hockey is almost a different sport from regular season hockey. Some players are just better suited to one style. Success in the season does not automatically equate to success in the playoffs or vice versa.
Best way to know if a player is a fluke is simply by "doing some research" on his history. What are some trends? Anamolies? Strengths or Weaknesses? What do the scouting reports say? And most importantly...what does your gut say?
And last of all, if you're still unsure, just create a new thread on this site because I guarantee you there are many users who have already given alot of thought to your question before you even knew you wanted to ask it! And you will get the feedback...
I don't think this has come up yet, but for me, this is probably the most important idea.
1. Know your GM's.
In my league, the other GM's are good friends. We talk hockey all the time and I'm careful not to reveal too much. But over the years, tendencies show, as if we have been playing poker for so long (we have).
Certain players are liked and certain players are over-evaluated. I already know I have no chance on certain players for this draft year so I don't know too much stock on my draft list.
I used to do mock drafts based on my knowledge but that's really tough and can through you off.
If a league is about winning trades, then this knowledge is invaluable. Look at my team in my sig. I recently traded Hossa for Perry and I got a pick upgrade. I think I won, but that GM totally thinks he did. Win-win I guess but I'll be winning that one for years.
I got that b/c I know that GM has Getzlaf and doesn't keep players for too long. He had the combo and it was a disappointing season so it was time to strike. I sold high on Hossa after winning the cup and it is my belief that he is no longer a 90 point player, especially playing second fiddle to Kane/Toews.
Sneeze Girl: retired (Brett Favre'd)
9 Keeper, 7 Teams:
1 G, 1 A, 1 PPA, 1 PPG, 2 GWG, 1 SHG, +/-
3 WIN, -1 LOST, 5 SHUTOUT, -0.5 GA, 0.3 SV, -0.2 SHOT
holy shit....the amount of advice in this thread is astounding...thank god the fossils in my 1 year league are still in the dark!....I'll tell them someday...LOL....$500 bucks goes a long way
God bless us,everyone of us!
good advice everyone.
Yes, it is important to use the information and match it to your need and your league rules accordingly.
Don't over rank players that have success being 2 way players unless your league rewards defense.
For example, if your forwards are scored purely on offense, do you choose M. Richards, Toews, or Semin?
Toews is a hot name right now because of the cup, but he is so responsible that he may not be the right choice. Semin is an injury risk, but can light it up if healthy. Richards? Well, he is similar to Toews.
Then you also have to look long term if you are in a keeper league.
Are you going all out for the win this year, or are you building long term?
Semin is hot with Washington, but where will he be next year? Toews and Richards are set where they are.
TSN is usually a leader in breaking news.
Rotoworld is great for up to date news.
ESPN also has good info.
And then there is Dobber.......
10 team, H2H Points, Limited Keeper (1C,2W,2D,1G,1 non G)
18 man roster plus 1 IR spot [19 total]
start 2C, 4W, 4D, 2G; daily lineup changes
Stats: G,A,PPG,ENG,SHG,GWG,OTG,ShootOut Goals/Attemtps,Hat Tricks,+/-,FOW,PIMs,Majors,Misconducts,Hits,Blocked Shots
Goalies Stats: W,Saves,Goals Against,SO
C: Tavares, Thornton, Stastny, Kadri
W: Seguin, Ryan, Brown, Callahan, Ladd, Steen
D: Letang, Kronwall, Visnovsky, Beauchemin, Girardi
G: Rinne, Smith, Reimer
haha illegal wire taps! nice! you guys don't fugg around
ESPN H2H: G,A,PPP,+/-,SOG, PIM, W,SO,SV%,GAA
3x C/RW/LW 6x D 2xG Keep 5-8
Keepers for 2012 (Staal, Horton, Lidstrom, Boyle, Pronger, Anderson, Howard) Need one more
It's simple really.
Websites, columnists, newspapers, magazines. Anything and everything you can get your fingers on.
To everyone that you can. The exchange of ideas is valuable. It's also fun.
Carefully pour through box scores, lists, abstract thoughts (who has won the Rookie, Scoring & MVP awards in each of the three Major Jr. leagues? - maybe this would find a sure fire NHLer?)
Read with the understanding that there is a lot of opinion. Some correct. Some incorrect. Then follow your own beliefs.
A couple times a year I develop charts. This helps me assess what ranking players currently have in the overall Fantasy world. All G go on one page. D on another. LW on a third. C & of course RW go on their own pages.
WORK HARDER THAN ANYONE ELSE
Like most everything in life, those that work the hardest, get the best results. Simple goal setting. (send out a trade offer a day/week)
PLAN & STRATEGIZE
Understand your short term needs & goals. Understand your long term needs & goals. For example in cap, three years ago I wanted Duncan Keith. I got him. I traded him last year, just prior to his cap hit going through the roof. Develop team building strategies and implement them. In cap I concluded 20 points per $1M of cap space. "ABOVE THE BAR THEORY". Whether they're correct or not, at least I have a plan. Avoid middling or untradeable pieces at all costs. Dispose of depreciating assets.
NEVER THROW IN THE TOWEL
Always drive to the top, never go backwards! NEVER!
CONTROL IT, DON'T LET IT CONTROL YOU
By managing carefully, and daily, you'll soon control your destiny, rather than simply being pushed and warped by the league around you. It's in your hands.
Best One Moment Wonders
Darryl Sittler (10 point game)
Tom Bladon (8 point game - blueliner)
Sam Gagner (8 point game)
Al Hill (5 points in 1st NHL game)
Brian Boucher (5 consecutive SO)
Ian Turnbull (5 goal game)
Stastny Brothers (16 point game)
I 'll try to add to what has already been mentioned:
Increase the Speed of info!!
...A great tool is iGoogle. Set up your browser Home Page to iGoogle (or a similar search engine) with news widgets. When I open my browser every morning, it has all the recent articles on one page from all my favorite sites and bloggers. It instantly updates me on all the latest news. No injury, rumor, or trade ever gets by me.
Set up a twitter account and follow Darren Dreger and Bob Mckenzie...then set both of them up to send all their tweets to your cell phone. I find these 2 guys are the fastest at getting breaking news and then tweeting it to their followers. Opening Day of Free Agency, Draft Day, and the Trade Deadline are the best days to be tuned in to both of these guys.
...Between Dobbers' guide and the Scouting Report's guide, you will get enough information on all the current NHL players to build a good roster, but Prospects is where you really need to do a little extra research. HockeyFuture is oft mentioned here in this thread, but I personally stay away from that site almost completely. You really have to use multiple sources, then do your own research based on your league's categories. Check all of these sources out and see which works best for you.
Hockey News' Future's Watch issue - comes out around February each year
Dobber's Prospect Guide - comes out every June (wish they would update this after the NHL Draft...I like this better than Dobber's draft guide)
Mckeen's Yearbook - Every Sept
TheScoutingReports' Prospect Spreadsheet - Doesn't give you any incite, but it puts their top 500 prospects and all their stats in one spreadsheet making it very convenient. And its priced right...every June
and if you're willing to pay top $$...the Redline Report is very good.
...as previously mentioned, Goalie Post is the best site to find out which Goalie is starting on a particular night, which is invaluable in Daily Lineup leagues.
Watch the score board!!
...ESPN is the best, by far. My league is in CBS, BUT...I always setup a private free ESPN league for just my team! They have all the categories, including Hits and Blocked shots...and they update the all the stats..live...better than Yahoo, NHL, or CBS...and again...it's free.
These are the secrets of Fantasy Hockey, but only the uber-active poolies really take advantage of all of them. The time you invest (and invest wisely) ultimately, is the most powerful tool to winning.
16 Team Dynasty w/Cap & Contracts, 23cat ROTO
C - Giroux, E. Staal, Couture, Bergeron
W - Pominville, Brown, Read, Tlusty, Hartnell, Williams, Vrbata
D - Pietrangelo, Subban, Green, Spurgeon, Schenn, Carlson, Franson
G - Luongo, Smith, Nabokov, Mason
Farm - Cousins, Hertl, McCabe, Pelly, R. Boucher, Vey, Zatkoff, Donovan, McNabb, T. McGinn, M. Martin, M. Jones, J. Larsson, A. Lee, D. LeBlanc, Sustr
I like these types of threads, gives a nice little refresher even for the experienced guys. It's like putting on a pair of glasses, (or sobering up) just brings things back into focus.
Dobber's site is obviously the best. The Prospect Guide/Fantasy Guide is the best deal on the net to familiarize yourself with all of the fantasy relevant players (points-wise) on the planet. I love Dobber's philosophy with regards to player potential (ice-time and opportunity) and appreciate that he gives the LTU - long-term upside for every player that he talks about.
Scott Nichols (Sportsnet Blog), is a great late-night/morning read as he blogs every game/boxscore and gives great insight into the ice-time and line combos for every game, every night.
The real key to success in fatasy hockey, is to be able to correctly guage the value of players in your league. This value will be dependant on many factors. Most fantasy leagues will value points, which means you're looking for guys that will be playing top-line powerplay minutes. Most leagues will value shots/goals over assists, particularly if they include the SOG and GWG stats. A PPG will count as a G, P, PPG, PPP, SOG and could stand to be the GWG.
Know the number of GMs, the number of roster slots and the scoring categories ahead of time. Use your draft tools to guage who you might be able to draft BELOW their draft slot.
If you have confidence in your ability to trade, take advantage of your draft slot if the opportunity arises. In one year, I drafted 2 starting goalies and was able to parlay a goalie for a much higher rated forward.
In a league with 12 managers and 15 roster slots, you know that you'll be looking at the top 180 players in the league. I know that by looking at my stats sheets that we'll be looking a players 40pts deep into my pool. Positionally, you know that you will need the most fantasy points out of your 15 guys than anyone else.
Hockeypoolgeek, is a great site for helping you evaluate the positional value of your league both as a draft tool and trade evaluator.
If you have any doubt about a trade, for cripes sakes ask someone outisde of your league for a little help. DO NOT BE BULLIED INTO A TRADE. If someone is putting the heat on you to get a deal done, it's probably because they're trying to rip you off.
Most importantly for keeper/dynasty leagues, DON'T DISTURB THE BALANCE OF THE LEAGUE. Nothing worse in a keeper league than having a GM who managed to talk the league's worst team into trading him Crosby/Ovechkin/Luongo for depth and futures to "help" him rebuild.
Think of prospects like you think about stocks. Many are over-valued because of the team that owns their rights (think Pittsburgh), many are under-valued because of a potentially long development curve. If your league runs a "farm squad" of prospects, be sure you're stocking up on the sellable ones - you want to be able to move them for immediate help if you're in a position to win. The sellable ones would be the high picks from recent drafts and/or the ones with a near opportunity to make their respective squad.
12 team H2H Keeper (weekly)
(12-man active roster: 2C/2RW/2LW/4D/2G/6BN)
(G,A,+/-,PIM,SHP,SOG / W,GAA,SV%,SO)
Hard Luck Hosers (1st year expansion)
C: Kopitar, Carter
RW: Backes, Doan
LW: Benn, Couture
D: Subban, Goligoski, Doughty, Ekman-Larsson
G: Niemi, Bobrovsky
BN: Wheeler, Yakupov, van Reimsdyk, Plekanec, Carlson, Ward[IR]
keepers in bold