As the year went on, Stamkos got more ice time, and was much more comfortable. Going back to Ryan Ma's article yesterday, you have to wonder if these kids that were so highly lauded were given the ice time early, their transition to the pro game would be that much quicker. Instead we have these GM's and coaches, who believe they are protecting them from losing, or atleast losing confidence by making errors. Isn't failure the best teacher, in becoming a winner.

These kids are being groomed on how to handle the on-ice and off-ice situations from when they are 13 and 14 yrs old. While I think there are certain players that need some time to adjust, that is what the AHL is for.

The problem is, when the team labels their pick as the franchise. they want to conjure up game situations where their prized stud can only win, but as we all know, you can't do that with any consistancy, and still give them enough time to develop properly. The learning curve suddenly becomes much longer and more arched.

Tavares will be given every opportunity to succeed, but he will have plenty of opportunity to fail as well, and that is the way it should be.

Puck

__________________
'To be is to do' - Socrates....'To do is to be '- Sartre..........
'To do be do be do' - Sinatra.

Well said, puckhead.

Just as an aside... Even at the beginning of the season last year, Stamkos showed several flashes of his talent, namely his electric speed and deadly wrist shot. He was dominant during those flashes. JT is a different kind of player (not so much a skater as a rover), but I suspect we'll be seeing those same flashes of dominance. We certainly can expect that he'll be given absolute prime minutes in nearly every situation imaginable (minus the PK, I'd imagine).

Not really trying to make a point here... just can't wait for the season to get started!

__________________
15 GM Keeper League w/Roto Scoring (G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, GWG | W, GAA, SV%, SHO)
Start 4 C, 4 LW, 4 RW, 6 D, 2 G (23-man rosters) | Protect 10 players w/a max of 1 goalie

C - Crosby*, Malkin* (C/R), Tavares*, Roy, Mueller
L - Marleau* (C/L), Duchene* (C/L), Doan (L/R), McLeod
R - Giroux* (C/R), Kane* (C/R), Grabner, Kassian, Boll
D - Yandle*, Letang*, McDonagh, Hamilton, Oduya, Clitsome
G - Lundqvist*, Halak, Fasth

Dobber, I hope you're right. I will gladly be wrong in this case if Tavares realizes that best-case scenario as a rookie. Heck, I'd take that in any year but his career year.

Players have blown expectations out of the water before. Mike Bossy scoring 53 as a rookie, Teemu Selanne scoring 76 as a rookie, John Tavares scoring 45 as a 15-year-old. Nobody predicted that any of those things would happen and yet people still say things like "that will never happen."

Well, some pretty amazing things have happened before and that's one of the reasons why people love this game so much.

FYI: I just downloaded the latest guide and noticed that you still have 23 goals for Stamkos.

__________________
Chatham Maroons
22-team keeper league
(G, A, P, +/-, PPG, SHP, PIM ratio, MP and Goalie combo (Wins, OTL, SvPct, GAA)
Forwards: Kopitar, Backstrom, Perry, Kunitz, Jagr, Steen, Desharnais, Henrique, Tlusty, Vermette, Paajarvi; Goon: Prust. Farm: Watson, N. Ritchie, Jaskin, McCann.
Defence: Timonen, Edler, McBain, Hamhuis, Greene, Stralman; Farm: Sproul, Eckholm.
Goalies: Brodeur, Lindback; Farm: Holtby, Bobrovsky, Sateri, Altshuller, Mahalak.

On Twitter: @HockeyScribe

Wow - heated thread. Nothing is easier than to call someone making projections an idiot. As someone that likes to make projections, you are always going to be wrong somewhere, so it's easy in hindsight to poke holes. Projecting points is hard, but projecting rookie points is even worse.

I didn't buy the guide last year (I'm a happy first timer), but I think dobber's top 5 rookies were Stamkos, Turris, Oshie, Berglund, Brassard. I bought the score, and they also liked Stamkos and Turris. The only magazine that I thought made what I thought was a bold prediction last year was Mckeens. It really surprised me that they thought Giroux would get over 70 points and lead rookies. It also surprised me that they thought Turris would be a bust. That was an out of the box prediction, and I respect it - even though it was wrong.

What really bugs me is that if someone had predicted that Ryan, Versteeg and Grabovski would be the top three rookie scorers and Ryan would lead the league at 57, Stamkos would get less than 50 and Turris would get 20, people like the first poster would have called him an idiot. Projecting is difficult, but I'm sure glad someone else does it and is willing to put his head on the block by publishing the information.

The only statement above from Dobber that I disagree with is that the Tavares pick is bold. I think 55 to 70 points is the safe zone where we'll see most magazine projections. I think saying he'll be a stud and he'll get over 70 is bold or saying he'll be a bust and he'll get less than 55 is bold. I'll gladly post my predictions before the season starts, to try to put my head on the line.

For today, I'll make the bold prediction that he gets 51 points - exactly the same number as Alexandre Daigle just because there are so many of the same arguments above for JT as I was hearing before Daigle's rookie season. The truth is that I'm not sure there is anyone that has such a range of points that wouldn't surprise me. If he gets 80 points, I say - of course he did - look at those Junior numbers and what he did for team Canada and all the icetime he got on a horrible team. If he gets 30 points, I say - of course he did - he's so young and Vinny and Thornton also struggled their first year, plus he's too slow to be a stud during his first year. I can't remember the last player that had such a broad range of expectations. Given this broad range, I'm not sure it's possible to make a "laughable" projection for Tavares.

Mabus

great post mabus. I hate to say it, I am opn board with high projections for this guy. Daigle was a partier and drunk and pretty much only wanted money...

Tavares has a good head on his shoulders and will be the focal point for the Isle. He will get at least 60 imo and 30 goals to boot. theRickNash dynamic might bet true in this case.

__________________
10 Keepers (Finished 2nd, lose 1 keeper)
C: Malkin | Nugent-Hopkins
LW:Nash | Ryan
RW:Gaborik | Kessel | Voracek
D: Green
G: Miller
IR:
10 Team, 10 Keeper
Head to Head: G,A,P,PPP,SHP,BS,FW,GAA,SV%,SO
Daily changes: 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 1Util, 2G

Don't mistake opinion for fact.

priceless

I thought the JT totals were a tad high myself, I thought the same about Stamkos last year and I had him pegged perfectly but with JT I'm a little less sure. He's alot more dynamic than Stamkos IMO and he's going to be thrown into the fire from the outset so I'm inclined to believe Dobber might not be too far off, I would have guessed he'd be near 30Gs-30As myself but I wont be surprised if he exceeds that

__________________
Thats me on the street with a violin under my chin, playing with a grin, singing gibberish.





P=1 DPts=1.2 +/-=.32 PIM=.08 PPP=.4 SHP=.6 S=.015 Blk=.2 Hit=.08
W=2 OTL=.8 GA=-.64 SV=.08 SO=3

Pro (23 keep 17)
C- Filppula,Turris,Stastny,Backstrom
D-Boyle,MDZ,Karlsson,Robidas,Goligoski,Schenn,Seiden berg
G-Anderson,Hiller,Rinne
LW-Malone,Parise,Rolston,Eriksson,Ruutu
RW-Alfredsson,Callahan,Setoguchi,Brown,Ryder,Vrbata

Farm (9 keep all, max 200 GP, 100 Goalies)
Colborne,Leblanc,Loktionov,Perreault,Tangradi,Blum ,Poulin,Markstrom

I agree. Well said Mabus.

And Daigle dressed like a nurse.

Isn't he pretty?

So sad.

As for Tavares, yes, I hear he does have a good head on his shoulders.

__________________
Chatham Maroons
22-team keeper league
(G, A, P, +/-, PPG, SHP, PIM ratio, MP and Goalie combo (Wins, OTL, SvPct, GAA)
Forwards: Kopitar, Backstrom, Perry, Kunitz, Jagr, Steen, Desharnais, Henrique, Tlusty, Vermette, Paajarvi; Goon: Prust. Farm: Watson, N. Ritchie, Jaskin, McCann.
Defence: Timonen, Edler, McBain, Hamhuis, Greene, Stralman; Farm: Sproul, Eckholm.
Goalies: Brodeur, Lindback; Farm: Holtby, Bobrovsky, Sateri, Altshuller, Mahalak.

On Twitter: @HockeyScribe

Same here.

I thought Nicklas Backstrom was more deserving than a mere 3 point increase this season. He's only 21 years old, has yet to miss an NHL game and he is entering his 3rd season. Last season he jumped 20 points from his rookie campaign. The guide suggests that Ovechkin is due for a career year at 119 points but didn't really translate any of that success over to Backstrom. He's also a notorious hard worker and so I just don't see any reason why his progression should stop. Maybe it's just me but I have Nicklas Backstrom pegged for 25 goals and 75 assists this season... I cant think of a scenario (sans injury) that has him not jumping a lot in points totals once again this season.

All in all though, as a first time reader, I really enjoyed the guide. It's insightful and reasonable. I'm disappointed that Dobbs didn't make a stab at GAA and SV% though (even though it's a really hard to predict those 2 stats). It would make it a lot easier to get a quick-and-dirty look at goalie rankings across the board without having to compare his rankings to past season GAA and SV% stats on NHL.com.

__________________
12 team Yahoo H2H Keeper League (keep 6)
G, A, P, +/-, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG
W, L, GAA, SV%, SO

2C - Malkin
2LW - Datsyuk, Neal
2RW - Kane, Giroux
4D -
1Util -
2G - Luongo
---------------------------------------------------------
14 Team ESPN H2H Keeper League (Keep 5 or 6)
G, A, P, +/-, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, HAT
GS, W, L, GAA, SV%, SO

2C - Stamkos
2LW - Ovechkin, Hall
2RW - Eberle
4D - Karlsson
2Util -
2G - Halak

classic Daigle, daygull like bagel...lol

__________________
10 Keepers (Finished 2nd, lose 1 keeper)
C: Malkin | Nugent-Hopkins
LW:Nash | Ryan
RW:Gaborik | Kessel | Voracek
D: Green
G: Miller
IR:
10 Team, 10 Keeper
Head to Head: G,A,P,PPP,SHP,BS,FW,GAA,SV%,SO
Daily changes: 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 1Util, 2G

Don't mistake opinion for fact.