Trying To Get Horton II -- need advice - Fantasy Sports Forums

AFlyers66 · #1 07-12-2009, 09:50 AM

More on my attempts to pick up Horton. The other day I had posted:

Quote:

Originally Posted by AFlyers66

I had posted the other day about my attempts to pick up Horton in my 10-team roto keeper (see siggy). It was suggested I offer Tlusty, Makarov, and a 2nd rd pick for Horton; another was Tlusty and O'Sullivan for Horton. Decided to open with O'Sullivan (guy's an Oil fan) and Brouwer for Horton, he responded he didn't like either guy. Thought O'Sully's potential would be appealing, guess not. Think I'll run the Tlusty, Makarov, 2nd offer by him, see what happens. He owns Jordan Staal, I have li'l bro Jared Staal in my lower minors, was thinking of seeing if he wanted to reunite 2 of the Staal Bros. in his minors. Any other thoughts on possible offers to make?

I had mentioned in the other thread that I'm hoping to challenge for the league title, while the other GM is sort-of rebuilding after an 8th place finish. His worst stat category finishes were PPP (10th), SOG and A (8th), G (6th), plus all three goalie cats (9th, 10th, 9th). Also, my 1st and/or 2nd Rd picks next summer could be in play.

Thanks

The other GM sent a counter-offer of Horton for Jordan Eberle (in my Junior minors) & my 1st Round pick next summer. That pick realistically should be in the 8 to 10 range as I should, hopefully, improve on my 4th place finish with Luongo/Thomas/Rinne as my goalies all year. 8 thru 10 last month in our draft were Ellis, Kulikov, Kadri for reference. I guess for me the key is, will Horton finally break out and be healthy, become that points/PIM combo guy that can be so important in a roto keeper league. He's only 24 too, and teaming with Booth and Frolik etc is pretty appealing. The other key is upgrading my last few forward keeper positions. With keeping 10 forwards (Hossa, Datsyuk, Carter, Perry, DSedin, Briere, Kovalev, Selanne, PMB being the first nine most likely), the question is, would Horton be the last F keeper in place of Knuble, Umberger, Poni? Of course he would be, but is he worth Eberle and my 1st?

Any advice would be greatly appreciated!

reeveta · #2 07-12-2009, 11:12 AM

I think this is a good deal for you. It is always a bit tough to part with exciting young assets but don't include potential at the same level as production.

You get a young, producing player who could easily be the best piece in the deal. They get a player who may never crack 60 points (something Horton has done twice already) and a pick they likely can't use for at least 2 years.

woodrow · #3 07-12-2009, 11:37 AM

With the assets you have listed on your farm, you shouldn't even blink in doing this trade. Eberle might turn out to be a great fantasy pro, but you easily have enough other talent like Frolik and Giroux to make up for his loss.

Horton would definitely be a keeper over Umberger and Poni... Knuble, maybe not, depending how well he fits into Was' offense. Also, this is Selanne's last year, so this'll open another keeper spot for you.

To make it more palatable, ask for his 2nd round pick in next year's prospect draft or even a 3rd round pick.

ericdaoust · #4 07-12-2009, 12:32 PM

Even though Horton is by no means a special player, losing Eberle is not the end of the world. Neither is the other 1st. Both those young assets are only useful way down the road anyway.

I would try to milk one more asset out of him, like a 2nd/3rd or equal-value prospect.

JHM · #5 07-12-2009, 12:50 PM

If you would like Horton, now is the time to get him. His value couldn't go lower, unless he missed an entire season on injury.

I drafted him as an 18 year old, and still have him. I was very disappointed when my one league converted him to C this year. He'll likely be my 4th centre this winter, as I hope he'll return to the wing. That injury thing, well, it was very concerning when he first came into the NHL, but the last two or three years, it hasn't been an issue. They managed to sew the arms back onto him, I guess.

There is little doubt in my mind, that he'll have a career year of at least 70 points. The back-to-back 60's attest to this. Florida played a more conservative style this past winter under DeBoer. He is a championship calibre coach and kept a poor team in the hunt for a playoff position for a very long time. As the team improves, and it will under DeBoer, and as the team continues to adjust to his systems, I think we'll see Horton's numbers continue to rise. A full season of Stillman, a year of maturity for Frolik... all bodes well for Horton to get back into the 60 point window right away. There aren't a lot of other options with the Cats.

So, I would give up a couple of prospects, as you're describing. They are VERY GOOD prospects, not elite. Therefore, the worst that could happen is... you give the other guy a younger version of Horton. The best that happens is Horton eventually finds point-a-game. Horton has been around for what seems like a long time. He is however, quite young. (24?). This sometimes seems forgotten in discussion. Often times 'young prospects' arriving from Europe are the same age or older. In a league start up draft last summer, I drafted Horton about 80th overall. From what you said, try Eberle, Staal & choice of Umberger/Knuble/Poni. You mentioned "keeping 10 forwards". Thus, this plan is better as you would be keeping the pick. I don't think you want to give up the pick & stuff. If he's interested you would be in a position to bump up to Tlusty, from Staal. With a stroke of luck he likes Poni or Umberger as much as Horton. It was hard to be a Horton owner last year. Expectation was for the step closer to 70 points.

lanky522 · #6 07-12-2009, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by woodrow

With the assets you have listed on your farm, you shouldn't even blink in doing this trade. Eberle might turn out to be a great fantasy pro, but you easily have enough other talent like Frolik and Giroux to make up for his loss.

Horton would definitely be a keeper over Umberger and Poni... Knuble, maybe not, depending how well he fits into Was' offense. Also, this is Selanne's last year, so this'll open another keeper spot for you.

To make it more palatable, ask for his 2nd round pick in next year's prospect draft or even a 3rd round pick.

well said... i agree with this.

you can absorb the loss and i think this deal helps you out quite a bit.

as woodrow writes, it might be nice to try and squeeze a draft pick out of the deal too... just don't get to greedy or you might scare him off.

AFlyers66 · #7 07-17-2009, 04:21 PM

I went ahead and pulled the trigger on this deal, got Horton for Eberle and my 1st Rd pick next summer. Now hoping Horton has that big breakout year, hopefully with Tanguay at his side, or at least gets back to the 60+ pts level with some decent PIMs (80+?) too. Hoping Coach Deboer can bring out the best in Horton and improve his intensity.

Thanks for all the advice, guys.

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