Stats Nerds: Working out the values of defensemen - Page 2 - Fantasy Sports Forums

Steffen · #11 03-15-2007, 12:41 PM

Lanky, that is one extremely well-calibrated points system. I love the resulting rankings, not least because they offer a pretty good way to compare players of different positions.

Of course, the trickier part is projecting next year\'s stats in all of those categories.

Check out http://www.puckerings.com/research/analysis.html for a good essay on \"hockey metrics\".
Let\'s get Dobber to sponsor a conference some time where all thirteen of us (rounded to the nearest 13) can get together to discuss... lol.

Lehtonen32 · #12 03-15-2007, 03:37 PM

SirIrish wrote:

Quote:

This is great stuff guys. I love seeing that the obligatory stats class in university actually has some practical use.

Lehtonen…when you say average for the position, how do you acquire the average? Do you take the average from all available players (in that position) minus obvious outliers? Or is the average acquired from all players that have already been selected (i.e. – free agents on the wavier wire not included)?

The only issue I can see with this system in relation to goalie is that goalies, on average, get more points per game in your league then players, thus reducing their value. In other words, the difference between Brodeur and the worst goalie used in your calculations are much closer then say, Heatley and the worst player used in your calculation. Actually, having said that, I’m not sure that is a issue, as this system says that having Heatley and the worst goalie is better then having Brodeur and the worst player…. ok I can buy that.

What I don’t understand is how Crosby could get a higher V then Heatley if you were using the same average PPG. That just doesn’t make sense at all. 3 (heatly) – 1 (avg) = 2 , but 2.5 (Crosby) – 1 = 4?…

Cool system though guys, thanks for sharing.

We use officepools.com, which can spew out reports including the points recorded by every player who has played in the NHL this year. I then worked out the total points accumulated by forwards, the total games played by forwards, and then calculated the average (repeating the process for dmen and goalies of course).

Crosby is higher than Heatley because he has a higher points per game stat. He was just below Heatley on the total points list, but had played 4 less games and thus was higher on the points per game list.

lanky522 · #13 03-15-2007, 04:00 PM

Thanks for the link. Yeah... predicting has been my trouble... I\'ve calibrated this system that works really well for scoring, but as far as predicting goes, all I can really use is what the system spit out the privious season.

Nice link btw too.

diablos · #14 03-15-2007, 05:26 PM

One of my philosphies though is to have a rock steady def core. As if you have a def core that out scores other teams def core that would/should compensate if u lack a middle of road star.

Always gotta get a star on the team then couple of highenders

will make for good off season reading

diablos · #15 03-15-2007, 05:38 PM

not sure why double posting

Post edited by: diablos, at: 2007/03/15 17:39

diablos · #16 03-15-2007, 05:38 PM

see above sorry everyone

Post edited by: diablos, at: 2007/03/15 17:54

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