Anybody watch football today? Both games were fantastic, but the Broncos and Ravens was one epic game. Back and forth through the entire game. Flacco to Jones with 31 seconds left in the 4th to tie it was crazy... Ray Lewis, IMO the greatest middle linebacker of all time, will get to play at least one more game. If I was the Patriots or the Texans, I would be VERY nervous about playing the Ravens next week. Great stuff.

Rylant

Epic game... one of the best I've ever seen.

Champ Bailey should be hanging his head after that performance. Manning's turnovers were nothing to brag about either, but Bailey is supposed to be better than that.

__________________

Four out of three people have difficulty with fractions

Commish - Twisted Wrister Fantasy Hockey League

12 team, $$$, 24 players, Weekly, H2H, limited keeper (8), multi-cat (G, A, PIMs, Hits, SOG, HT/ W, GA, SV%, SO)

Start: 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 2G

Should have went for it in overtime when it was 4th + a yard or 2 , my young fella was livid!

__________________
Roto type keeper league.We keep any 6 ;15 teams , 3 div. of 5.We play 3 lines , 3 def. and start 2 goalies.6 BN.Stats are 1pt. for goals and assists , 2pts. for W , tie(O.T. or S.O. loss) 1pt. S.O. 1pt.Weekly line-up from Mon. to Sun.

LW - Malkin
LW - J. Skinner
LW - T. Ennis
LW - Conacher
LW - Raymond
C - Matthias
C - M. Richards
C - V. Filppula
C - Vermette
RW - B. Schenn
RW - M. Read
RW - J. Huberdeau
RW - M. Gaborik
Def. - Pietrangelo
Def. - B. Smith
Def. - Diaz
Def. - OEL
Def. - Stoner
G - Louongo
G - Markstrom
G - Neuvirth

They were also in their own zone were they not? Pretty much guarantees loss if you fail. Do you really want to risk your whole season on your rookie RB?

__________________
Dig my Cage Match articles? Follow my blog! The Laws of Sport

Also on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw

Flacco just guaranteed he will be re-signed to a fat contract by Ravens and as a fan I couldn't be happier even though he is pretty shaky from time to time. He stepped up and out-duelled Peyton Manning. I want him back, for better or for worse. There definitely isn't a better option available.

Time to get revenge on the Pats!

__________________
Dig my Cage Match articles? Follow my blog! The Laws of Sport

Also on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw

I agree, they played that one correctly. What they should have done, as Bomm suggested, is play some D during the deep balls. Champ Bailey will go down as one of the best corners of all time, but he flat out costed the Broncos the game.

Oh, here is something that I am not sure the Broncos are aware of. When you are up by 7 in the 4th quarter with 30 seconds left, and the other team has the ball on their own 35 and they have no time outs left, I am just going out on a limb here when I say there is a good chance they might go deep! How about playing the D a little deeper and protect against the long ball a bit?

Rylant

Yeah and after all the smack he talked before the game about being able to lockdown Torrey Smith. I think he thought he could just jam him at the line and that would stop him from breaking free.

In Bailey's defense, on pretty much all of the deep balls he had safety help over the top until a the safety got juked by a Ravens crossing pattern.

Also, you have to figure the Broncos expected to get a lot more pressure on Flacco after basically living in his kitchen during the last meeting so a huge amount of credit has to go to the Ravens O-line, which has been pretty mediocre all year but was HUGE on Saturday. Flacco got knocked down maybe twice? Sacked once? Hard to maintain coverage when the QB has all day to throw.

__________________
Dig my Cage Match articles? Follow my blog! The Laws of Sport

Also on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw

Yes they were around their 35yrd line , had just gained a coulple on a similar play so why not do it again?
Announcers made the same comment , not worth throwing the season away for but , they weren't playing the same type of game they played all season or/and the same Ravens team.they would have shut down the Ravens momentum and Manning would have been starting with a 1st down + they had the fans to motivate them!
Just my 2 cents , before everyone says hindsight is whatever , I made the same comment durring the game.
Totally agree about the 30secs left in the 4th.
POOL ON!

__________________
Roto type keeper league.We keep any 6 ;15 teams , 3 div. of 5.We play 3 lines , 3 def. and start 2 goalies.6 BN.Stats are 1pt. for goals and assists , 2pts. for W , tie(O.T. or S.O. loss) 1pt. S.O. 1pt.Weekly line-up from Mon. to Sun.

LW - Malkin
LW - J. Skinner
LW - T. Ennis
LW - Conacher
LW - Raymond
C - Matthias
C - M. Richards
C - V. Filppula
C - Vermette
RW - B. Schenn
RW - M. Read
RW - J. Huberdeau
RW - M. Gaborik
Def. - Pietrangelo
Def. - B. Smith
Def. - Diaz
Def. - OEL
Def. - Stoner
G - Louongo
G - Markstrom
G - Neuvirth

I'm no genius with these advanced stats but I punched the situation into the fourth down calculator and it actually seems that going for it would have been the right choice. Based on a league average success rate on 4-and-1 of 74% the Broncos should have gone for it. The break-even point for this situation is 64% success rate so assuming the Broncos running game wasn't 10% worse than the league average in short yardage situations then yes they should have gone for it.

Of course, with your starter out (and actually the backup to the starter because the original starter, Willis McGahee has been injured for a while) and a rookie running back in (albeit one who was running pretty well that day) you can understand why Fox wouldn't want to go for it.

You also have to figure he knows the downside of failing to convert fairly well (the win probability if you fail to convert in that situation drops to 23%). Also if you look at how the win probability shifts whether you go for it or not 64% if you succeed 49% if you fail it basically amounts to a coin flip whether you go for it or not. The numbers do say that you should go for it if you think you'll succeed two out of three times but that's still quite the gamble.

You also have to factor in that Fox clearly has a lot of faith in his defense. The specific numbers for each team would change the win probabilities. I know the Ravens have a pretty stout defense in short yardage situations and it's possible the Broncos are actually pretty miserable in those situations themselves (I haven't looked up the numbers). Denver's defense is also really good and had already stalled the Ravens once in overtime (and in fact did so again after this punt) so you have to think Fox felt really good about his defense even after the Ravens had gouged them several times that day.

Ultimately, I don't think that was Fox's worst decision of the day. I felt like not trying to unleash Manning at the end of the game with two (two?) timeouts remaining and 31 seconds on the clock was a poor choice. I at least take a shot there with my hall-of-fame quarterback with the caveat that he hit the dirt if nothing is available on the first play.

__________________
Dig my Cage Match articles? Follow my blog! The Laws of Sport

Also on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw