Yes. I would expect Khudobin to get 15-18 starts. That would leave about 65 starts, 38-40 wins, and 4-6 shut outs for Rask.

Its not that he should put up huge numbers that worries me. It's how much better is he than Bryz, Price, Kipper, Fleury/Smith? And then how much better is Getzlaf compared to Iggy, Couture, Ryan?

__________________

10 Team NHL Keeper League (Keep 6)
Points only (F/D 1pt/G 1pt/A, Goalie 2pt/W 3pt/SO)
Starters: 12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalie
(82 game cap at each position)
Bench: 3 Any Position
No IR

F- Giroux, Backstrom, Tavares, Kovalchuk, Getzlaf, Benn, Iginla, M.Koivu, Hartnell, Carter, Cammalleri, Callahan

D- Byfuglien, Green, Boyle, Goligoski, Visnovsky, Wizniewski

G- Rask, Elliott

BN- Brodeur, Saad, Beauchemin

Picks - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17

***2012-2013 ________***
***2011-2012 Runner Up***
***2010-2011 League Champion***

i dont see those numbers at all personally

9 goalies started 65+ games last season

and 4-6 shut outs is what thomas put up

same team or not i just dont see sliding a rookie in and giving him the last guys numbers

again personally i think you are way over on his numbers i could be wrong but that just looks way too high to me

also its more than just how much better he is compared to others (and maf and smith both put up better than 92 last season) you were going the right direction when trying to figure out what those ahead of you were going to do

you keep the one you cant get back and drop the one you can

kipper had 82 under your setup and bryz had 84

35 wins and 4 shutouts for 82 points thats a tall order for a rookie imo and you are predicting 10 more points

i just dont know

one goalie in the history of the nhl got 38 or more wins his rookie season bill durnan in 43-44

only 31 goalies with 4+ shutouts in the history of the league in their rookie seasons only 2 post lockout

again your expectations i think are high

This was my initial thinking. And that's why I was sure that I would keep Getzlaf. I looked at the "experts" and this is their predictions:

TSN(prorated): 37W+7SO=95
ESPN: 31W+7SO=80
Yahoo: 37W+5SO=89
CBS: 39W+8SO=102

So other than ESPN, they are all predicting a monster year for Rask. I have zero chance of redrafting Getzlaf at #5. I have a chance of redrafting Rask but could fall back on Price or Bryz.

__________________

10 Team NHL Keeper League (Keep 6)
Points only (F/D 1pt/G 1pt/A, Goalie 2pt/W 3pt/SO)
Starters: 12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalie
(82 game cap at each position)
Bench: 3 Any Position
No IR

F- Giroux, Backstrom, Tavares, Kovalchuk, Getzlaf, Benn, Iginla, M.Koivu, Hartnell, Carter, Cammalleri, Callahan

D- Byfuglien, Green, Boyle, Goligoski, Visnovsky, Wizniewski

G- Rask, Elliott

BN- Brodeur, Saad, Beauchemin

Picks - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17

***2012-2013 ________***
***2011-2012 Runner Up***
***2010-2011 League Champion***

In a 10-team league, keep Getzlaf.
10-teams counting 12F = 120F.
10-teams counting 2G = 20G.
Exactly... you understand the theory properly.


We all know Rask is a top 5 goalie, which puts him in the upper 25%.
We also know Getzlaf should be a top 30 forward, which puts him in the upper 25%.
And new goalies rise up into this upper echelon every year... Mike Smith! Jaroslav Halak! Jimmy Howard!
Four years ago, these guys were back-ups that nobody would've though would emerge.

But 20G in play also means that there are (10) #1 NHL goalies that aren't counting and will be available.
With 120F, that's the top 4 players on all 30 NHL teams... which means that all PP1 scorers are taken.
And top 30 scorers don't just pop-out of nowhere. These guys are all first round draft picks that we all see coming, they're hard to snag.


In MOST other types of leagues, especially "category leagues", the goalies (and especially RASK) will carry more weight.

Here points-are-points and you are looking at it correctly: "relative difference" from what you can get from the waiver wire.

Getzlaf is the correct keeper.

In a 10-team league, you will always be able to find a emerging goalie that is getting enough starts to supplement your totals. 12F/6D/2G. There's 20 players in play here and Rask is just one of 20 contributors... and his position is well-stocked in your pool.

Also - Getzlaf is a free agent this summer and if he switches teams he will become a very attractive player: Calgary? Toronto? NY Rangers? Several teams out there could use a top center.

yeah i am a lot more confident in your getzlaf projections than your rask ones

i actually give getz a better chance to even exceed your predictions than i would give rask to match his

Now you're just tugging at my heart strings. That would be a dream come true.

__________________

10 Team NHL Keeper League (Keep 6)
Points only (F/D 1pt/G 1pt/A, Goalie 2pt/W 3pt/SO)
Starters: 12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalie
(82 game cap at each position)
Bench: 3 Any Position
No IR

F- Giroux, Backstrom, Tavares, Kovalchuk, Getzlaf, Benn, Iginla, M.Koivu, Hartnell, Carter, Cammalleri, Callahan

D- Byfuglien, Green, Boyle, Goligoski, Visnovsky, Wizniewski

G- Rask, Elliott

BN- Brodeur, Saad, Beauchemin

Picks - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17

***2012-2013 ________***
***2011-2012 Runner Up***
***2010-2011 League Champion***

I think your projections for Rask are pretty accurate - he is a shutout type goalie on a good D team so I would expect a minimum of 90 fantasy points out of him over a full season. That being said I would keep Getzlaf here - there are lots of goalies on the possible available list that will approach 85 points with 35 wins and 5 shutouts so it's about gap - Getzlaf just has too high an upside not to want to catch the ride if it happens. With such a limited keeper, you are always going to be able to draft good goal tending

__________________
Yahoo weekly starts 12 team league, keep 17 plus farm

GS, W, L, SV, GAA, SV%, SO G, A, P, +/-, PIM, SOG, GWG, PPP, SHP, HITS, FOW

3C: H. Sedin,Stepan, Stastny, R. Johansen, Hanzal, Anisimov,
3LW: Burrows, Vanek, Ott, Lupul, Dubinsky
3RW: Doan, Pavelski, Brown, Okposo,
6D: Franson, Doughty, Voynov, Subban, Markov, Gonchar, Karlsson
1Util:
2G: Price, Emery


Farm: (< 100 games): S. Elliott, J. Bernier, Galchenyuk, Etem, Eakin, Atkinson

Thanks everyone for the advise. Getzlaf was my initial plan and now my opinion has be re-solidified with all your help. Now I have a week to submit my keepers, so I have time to wait for Kovalchuk to get his head out of his ass. If gets a case of the stupids, then I still have Rask to replace him with.

Thanks

__________________

10 Team NHL Keeper League (Keep 6)
Points only (F/D 1pt/G 1pt/A, Goalie 2pt/W 3pt/SO)
Starters: 12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalie
(82 game cap at each position)
Bench: 3 Any Position
No IR

F- Giroux, Backstrom, Tavares, Kovalchuk, Getzlaf, Benn, Iginla, M.Koivu, Hartnell, Carter, Cammalleri, Callahan

D- Byfuglien, Green, Boyle, Goligoski, Visnovsky, Wizniewski

G- Rask, Elliott

BN- Brodeur, Saad, Beauchemin

Picks - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17

***2012-2013 ________***
***2011-2012 Runner Up***
***2010-2011 League Champion***

***NEW INFO***

I had the Luongo owner approach me about Rask. He is willing to offer me a 3rd round pick in exchange. My initial plan was to pick Rask back up with my first rounder. But I could move Rask for a 3rd and use my first to pick up Bryz.

Thoughts???

__________________

10 Team NHL Keeper League (Keep 6)
Points only (F/D 1pt/G 1pt/A, Goalie 2pt/W 3pt/SO)
Starters: 12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalie
(82 game cap at each position)
Bench: 3 Any Position
No IR

F- Giroux, Backstrom, Tavares, Kovalchuk, Getzlaf, Benn, Iginla, M.Koivu, Hartnell, Carter, Cammalleri, Callahan

D- Byfuglien, Green, Boyle, Goligoski, Visnovsky, Wizniewski

G- Rask, Elliott

BN- Brodeur, Saad, Beauchemin

Picks - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17

***2012-2013 ________***
***2011-2012 Runner Up***
***2010-2011 League Champion***