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  #11  
Old 01-08-2013, 12:20 AM
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Thanks guys, looks like most agree with the oranks
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  #12  
Old 01-08-2013, 10:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DerekReese View Post
I would rank them as:
Tavares
Neal
Seguin
Yup, I second this list for one-year multi-cat leagues.
I drafted Tavares with the 6th overall pick in two consecutive one-year multi-cat leagues. (Crosby/Malkin/Stamkos/Ovechkin/Lundqvist/Giroux are the consensus top 6 this year... though some, like me, put Tavares into that mix.)
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  #13  
Old 01-08-2013, 10:38 AM
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In a one year, I'd go with Neal over Seguin but it's so close that you can't go wrong with either.

Obviously, if Tavares is still there at 11th, I'd go with him and thank the Lord.
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  #14  
Old 01-08-2013, 11:02 AM
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I would rank them as:
Tavares
Seguin
Neal
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C= crosby,m.koivu,malkin,zajak,grabovski,j.jokinen,
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  #15  
Old 01-08-2013, 11:23 AM
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Guys - keep in mind that although the OP's league is "multi-cat" it DOES NOT include SOG or PIM - both categories where Neal really adds value.

I think the OP's multi-cat format actually favours Seguin if anything due to +/-.
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  #16  
Old 01-08-2013, 11:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blayze View Post
Guys - keep in mind that although the OP's league is "multi-cat" it DOES NOT include SOG or PIM - both categories where Neal really adds value.

I think the OP's multi-cat format actually favours Seguin if anything due to +/-.

James Neal was only +6 last year... but his linemates Malkin (+18) and Kunitz (+16) were both significantly better. This year, Neal is guaranteed to play with Malkin or Crosby, the PIT defense will be healthy and even when MAF takes a break the Pens will have Vokoun.

Assuming Seguin continues to ride with Bergeron, he should have a nice +/-, but Boston is also going to have Rask (not Thomas) for the full year with a few spells by Khudobin.

In summary, I think PIT will be a better +/- team than last year and I think BOS will be slightly worse +/- team than last year.
James Neal will be better than +6, I think... significantly better. Neal can get to +6 in a month of play.
Tyler Seguin will be lower than +34, I think... signficantly less. It takes 82 games to get to that point.

In a short-season, I don't think +/- is something we should be as concerned about.
I'll be shocked if anybody in the NHL hits +30 in a 48-game season.
I'll put my money on the NHL leader being +27 at end of season.

Predictions:
Seguin +22
Neal +16

Last edited by Pengwin7; 01-08-2013 at 11:47 AM.
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  #17  
Old 01-08-2013, 11:52 AM
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yes the plus minus is a huge boost to seguins value, but at the same time neal is probably a safer pick with his points being spoonfed to him
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  #18  
Old 01-08-2013, 01:28 PM
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Another thing to consider is perceived value. Sure, Seguin is highly regarded but he's yet (the key word here) to join the elite, so many managers will hesitate in using a high draft pick on someone who may or may not get there this season. As for Neal, although there isn't SOG or PIM, Neal still had 81 points last season and plays for the Pens so his perceived value is quite high, regardless whether he's going along the ride or creating for himself.

The reason I say this is that you are relying on the next step to justify using that higher pick. However, with the 11th pick (out of how many?), that's a tricky one since you may not get him in the third round (early second is a bit early for me). Perhaps start talking strategy with your league and say how goalies are so important and will probably go early and then maybe you'll get Seguin in the third! I don't even know your goalie cats but it may work haha!

To summarise, I would draft them exactly the same way I would a full league and not overanalyse the short season factors, focusing on the more predictable offensive categories (not SHP, GWG ugh!) and not worrying too much about +/-. So my order is:

Tavares (unlikely to be there at 11)
Neal (could be there and would grab him), and
Seguin (too early to pick him - 2nd/3rd round better)
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Last edited by horrorfan; 01-08-2013 at 01:30 PM.
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  #19  
Old 01-08-2013, 02:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevinsrangers View Post
I would rank them as:
Tavares
Seguin
Neal
Agree with this.
Tavares is the clear #1 here.
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  #20  
Old 01-08-2013, 03:56 PM
mcginn mcginn is offline
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thanks, its a 14 team league fwiw
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