A fair response.

I think we have to start with one player-based statistic: A1 vs. A2.
I can't remember Giroux's linemates in 2009-2010 (the 47pt season), but if memory serves (as a Flyers fan)... back then Mike Richards & Jeff Carter were still centering their own lines and Giroux was C3. (Gagne-Richie-Carter were F1 and Hartnell-Briere-Leino/JVR were F2, if I recall).
In this case, his 3rd line linemates would be pretty poor & the only way he's going to get (non-PP) points is:
1. Score the goal himself.
2. Directly assist the goal-scorer.

Now, in 2010-2011 Giroux found his way up to the 2nd line, sliding Carter to RW for much of the season, with most common linemates (per LWL):
Powe - Giroux - Carter
JVR - Giroux - Carter
Zherdev - Giroux - Carter

Well, in that season he's now got at least one linemate that can also pass/score and even the 3rd linemate (JVR/Zherdev) is fairly skilled. This means there is now opportunity for more 2nd assists. Typically, we see this linemate-skill-increase and can cite that criterion alone as reason for point-increase. With a deft-passer like Giroux, it's even more of a bonus because he can pass to JVR/Zherdev and they may feed Carter... or he can pass to Carter and JVR/Zherdev may score. The opportunity for 2nd assists is mostly a reflection of his promotion to the 2nd line.

Now, we could have just seen it that way (promotion to 2nd line) and many people did (based on training camp line-ups & pure speculation of skill placement).
But the promotion comes because his own coaches were probably well aware that his passing talents (A1 heavy) were wasted on the 3rd line.

So - combination of hockey-analysis & statistical-analysis, yes.
The combination of both (which is represented here! in the Dobber community!) has the traits to see the increase coming!!!

2013 BUMP & review.

A look back at a my A1 vs. A2 thread from prior to this past season.

I flagged four player (above) for a decreased performance:
*Jamie Benn
*Gabriel Landeskog
*Nikita Nikitin
*Marcus Foligno

Benn put up 63pts in 71games last season. .887ppg
Benn put up 33pts in 41games this season. .805ppg
Production down.

Landeskog put up 52pts in 82games last season. .634ppg
Landeskog put up 17pts in 36games this season. .472ppg
Production down.

Nikitin put up 32pts in 54games last season. .593ppg
Nikitin put up 9pts in 38games this season. .237ppg
Production down.

Foligno put up 13pts in 14games last season. .929ppg
Foligno put up 18pts in 47games this season. .383ppg
Production down.

4 players pegged for production decreases... 4 correct.


Then again... some players that had really nice A1:A2 ratios also fizzled... Perry, Stafford, Kennedy.
Though, some did increase (Pat Kane!) and some continued to show high A1:A2 ratios for a second straight year (both Logan Couture!!! & Matt Cullen!!!).

Though this little project only has two seasons of analysis & one season of predictions... so far is DOES SUGGEST that players who had "good seasons" with a majority of their assists as 2nd assists... would be due for a decrease in production. While this isn't really a surprise - it does give us a reason to look at a player's A1:A2 ratio to check and see how he was getting those assists.

Summary:
Beware of forwards with heavy A2 quantities!

in fairness, three of the four decreasers missed time and/or played for periods while injured... nikitin and foligno were easy calls to make, regardless of where there assists came from last year. neither one was going to repeat their production. benn played for big stretches hurt, joined a top six that only had one player from last year, and he missed training camp. landeskog suffered a concussion, missed time and came back to a team without a reason to live.

i do think there is something to be said about A1/A2 assists, I just don't think these guys clearly highlight anything to do with it.