2012-2013 Lucky Players, Unlucky Players, and Production Players - Fantasy Sports Forums

Pengwin7 · #1 05-15-2013, 12:25 PM

The following five posts will include groups of 120 skaters sorted by the following statistic:

Points... per... minute
(Actually it's Points-per-60min... to indicate how many points a player might score if he played a full NHL game: 60min.)

This is one of the more valuable statistics for fantasy hockey people to know.
If a player is producing well in 16min of time... he's likely going to get more time in the future and therefore... MORE POINTS!!!
I'll call these "Production Players".

Another valuable statistic, IMO, is looking at a players 1st assists compared to his 2nd assists.

1st assists are more telling of set-up passing skill.
2nd assists might be lucky... or may reflect playing alongside a superior (1st assist) kind of passer.

I look at the A1:A2 ratio, and then separate into groups:

Group One: UNLUCKY.
A1:A2 > 4.
(For example, a guy with 20 first assists and only 4 second assists).
Players that are heavy on first-assists... I'll call them UNLUCKY.
It just means that they did NOT have a lot of second assists.
The majority of these players' assists were first assists.
This is a GOOD. THING.
In future years, if they can repeat their first assist totals, the second assists will probably come by luck.

Look into getting these guys in the off-season.
These players are in DARK GREEN on the attached PDFs.
Guys in this group: Logan Couture, Kadri, Tavares, Krejci, E.Kane, Kovalchuk, Gaborik, MDZ.

Group Two: Somewhat Unlucky.
A1:A2 is between 2.00 & 4.00.
(For example, a guy with 20 first assists and only 8 second assists).
Similar to above, with a slightly lower ratio.

If the player (i.e. Crosby) is a really deft-passer... his statistics may not change, because he will always naturally be A1 heavy.
However, if the A2/60 is low, it may indicate that a player was just lucky in not getting many 2nd assists. Perhaps he'll get more next year and his value will increase.

Group Three: Typical
A1:A2 ratio is between 0.500 & 2.00.

Group Four: Somewhat Lucky
A1:A2 is between 0.250 & 0.500.
(For example, a guy with only 8 first assists and 20 second assists).
This player got most of his points through second assists. That's never good.
He may have been lucky in just being part of a scoring play.
This can often be a defenseman mover on a PP, who often is two touches from a goal.
Of less concern are defensemen... the greater concern is forwards that aren't getting any A1.

Group Five: LUCKY
A1:A2 < 0.250.
(For example, a guy with only 4 first assists and 20 second assists).
Players that are heavy on second-assists... I'll call them LUCKY.
WATCH OUT FOR THESE GUYS.
THEIR STATS MAY DROP.
We shouldn't count on 2nd assists to repeat. It's too far away from a goal and often reflects luck or being the 3rd wheel on a good line.
Guys in this Group: Ryan O'Reilly, Sam Gagner, Patrick Marleau, Ryan Malone, Olli Jokinen, Derek Dorsett, Dan Cleary.

Below are the five PDFs with the following skater groups:
Scorers #1-120
Scorers #121-240
Scorers #241-360
Scorers #361-480
Scorers #481-581