Holtby for Neal and Ellis - Fantasy Sports Forums

happypg · #1 10-09-2012, 10:50 AM

Sorry if you have seen this before as I posted something silimar a few months ago.

In the league I'm in, this is the final week of cuts where we need to get down to a 25 man roster plus 3 goalies. It's a head to head league, with 15 to 19 teams (some owners are getting sick of the lockouts and talking about not coming back). It is a salary cap, full keeper league where the categories are G, A, +/-, PIM, Goalie Wins, Sv% and GAA.

My current goalies are: Howard, Bryz, Holtby, Lehner.

Lehner is getting very little interest in the league but I am high on him. The team I am looking to trade with has the worst goalies in the league (Tim Thomas, Budaj, Greiss). He has currently made an offer of Neal and Ellis for Holtby and Brett Connolly which I wont accept. I'll include my roster below.

I don't want to accept an offer just to accept a deal but I feel strange cutting Lehner (zero interest in league).

Any suggestions are welcome.

---------------------------------
F: (start 9) Giroux, Datsyuk, Benn, Lucic, Semin, JvR, St. Louis, Dubinsky, Eberle, Nyquist, Strome, Tatar, Welsh, Atkinson, Boedker, Connolly, Niederreiter, Kabanov, Brunner
D: (start 4) Bieksa, Edler, Kronwall, Burns, Brendan Smith, Boychuck, Demers, Connauton, M-A Bergeron (IR)
G: (start 2) Howard, Bryzgalov, Holtby, Lehner

Carcillo · #2 10-09-2012, 10:54 AM

Consider yourself lucky man if you can get Neal alone for Holtby and Connolly. I would taken the original offer in a nanosecond.

Sure it's a goalie heavy league and Holtby has amazing cap hit for this year, but I'd still take Neal easily.

ericdaoust · #3 10-09-2012, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carcillo

Consider yourself lucky man if you can get Neal alone for Holtby and Connolly. I would taken the original offer in a nanosecond.

Sure it's a goalie heavy league and Holtby has amazing cap hit for this year, but I'd still take Neal easily.

This. Neal is one of the top players to own. He is the first Pens' winger to establish himself as a top tier talent and has the two best centermen in the game feeding him passes.

DerekReese · #4 10-09-2012, 10:58 AM

This is an easy yes for me.

dmvincent · #5 10-09-2012, 11:01 AM

You already have Howard and Bryz and now this guy is offering you a guaranteed stud for a Holtby package.

He's overpaying by a large margin, trust me.

I'd do it now!

Pengwin7 · #6 10-09-2012, 11:04 AM

H2H or Roto?
Daily or weekly starts?

These are important, put them in your SIG.

1. Your league is really strange: 4 skater cats & 3 goalie cats!!!
2. You have 25-man rosters + 3 goalies.
3. There are 15-19 teams. (There are only 32 NHL #1 goalies, which means each team has roughly 2 #1s... you have 3. This gives you a significant advantage in WINS. If you trade Holtby, you drop to being only slightly-above average in Wins. In ROTO, that's a drop from probably 16-17pts to 9-10pts. Does Neal make up for 7pts in the goalie win category???

Any #1 goalie has incredible value in this league.
Sheesh - you've got 3 goalies contributing to 3 goalie cats.
That means a goalie ~ 1 category (all by himself).
Then we have to consider that Holtby probably does NOT help your GAA or SV%, so really he contributes to 1/3rd of one category, so maybe Holtby is worth 0.33 categories.

Now, if you start 18 skaters, say... and those go towards just 4 categories... well, that means every skater is worth 0.22 categories.
Neal, being an ELITE skater should be worth double of a typical skater, so maybe Neal is worth 0.44 categories.

The league is not likely most others... goalies are GOLD in this league and even elite skaters are watered down by all the other skaters in play.

If you are FORCED to cut Lehner, I'd probably do the deal.
It seems Neal improves your team by about 0.44 categories & losing Holtby only hurts you by about 0.33 categories. NET win.

But it's actually really close to an even-trade... and I think it is very hard for any of us to understand the ridiculous value that a goalie has in this strange, strange league set-up.

norrisdivision · #7 10-09-2012, 11:22 AM

Agreed this is closer than it looks given the goalie-heavy cats, but just to give some perspective my league is moderately goalie-heavy (over 1/3 of the cats) and so we rarely swap goalie for skater. I got Byfuglien for Holtby straight up during the playoffs in May after the Kessel owner turned me down in a one-for-one offer. Both were equally eager to do a deal. I think given your situation and league, Neal is still a solid return.

ericdaoust · #8 10-09-2012, 11:23 AM

I do understand the value of goalies. but Holtby is just getting his foot in the door. Even the great goalies had hiccups along the way.

hockeyrobot · #9 10-09-2012, 11:36 AM

I would take that deal immediately....getting Neal alone is a great addition. Even if goalies have a ton of value, we have no idea what Holtby will become and same goes for Connolly for that matter.

happypg · #10 10-09-2012, 11:39 AM

Thanks for your advice! Yes, the league is heavily weighted for goalies which is why goalies are not often traded in the league.

To answer some questions:

1) It is a weekly head to head league
2) We have a 28 man keeper roster, with a max of 3 goalies.
3) We only start TWO (2) goalies a week so Holtby would start on my bench.

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