All right, so my draft is tonight (who cares if the season turns out to be months away/non-existent - drafting is the gear!) and I'm having a bit of trouble deciding what to do with my first pick.

Last year, I picked 7th and started a crazy goalie run where 16 of the next 17 picks were goalies...

I'm afraid it might happen again, but I also think I have a good shot at landing Ovechkin or Giroux with the 6th pick (Malkin, Crosby, Stamkos, Lundqvist, OV/Giroux/Quick, and then me).

With Hits, OV is a beast in our league, but if I take him, and the mad goalie run happens again (people will want to make sure they aren't stuck in a crappy situation like they were last year), I'll be screwed.

So basically...I'm thinking no matter what happens, I'll be able to get one of the big 3 goalies or an elite skater, but what do I do?

I'm leaning towards a goalie (may even force a goalie run) and then be able to snag a great skater with my second pick (it's a snake draft, but I'm right in the middle so it doesn't really affect me). ANY help would be greatly appreciated. (I'd rep ya...but I gots no rep power...)
Thanks

Go for the goalie

Ludquist (if still available)
Rennie
Quick

play it safe

wow, that is a crazy run on goalies

I was surprised when Quick, Lundqvist, Schneider, Rinne, Smith went 8 thru 12 in my league.

but since your league has a history of that I agree with kbooks to just play it safe.

__________________
Current: 3 NHL, 1 NBA
NHL winner '05,'07,'09,'11 (4/7)
NFL winner '10, '12 (2/3)

Schneider was the third goalie picked?? Good God, haha.

Yeah, it was nuts. Kinda why I was leaning towards taking a goalie, just wanted someone else to confirm that I'm not insane for passing up on OV or Giroux with the 6th pick, haha.

Thanks to the both of you.
Fake rep!

This is a shallow league with a 10/4 category split.
The starting skater roster allocation is thin too... just 12 players (2/2/2/+2/4/2).

So category distribution is approximately 1 category per player. (10 divided by 12).
And category distribution is approximately 2 category per goalie. (4 divided by 2).

This is the H2H set-up where skaters have much higher value than a standard league.
You've also got to realize that GOALIE statistics week-to-week are highly variable.

You could have Lundqvist and then it might end up that the Rangers have a week during your semi-finals where they play @VAN (Tues), @CGY (Fri), @EDM (Sat). Maybe Lundqvist loses 5-4 on Tuesday, wins 3-2 on Friday, and then Biron plays Saturday. So, you'd get a weekly line of 1W, 3.50 GAA, 0.910 SV%. That can happen ANY week with any goalie.

Here's where I'm going: It's a short season and H2H weeks can be very random for goalies. Your pick should be a skater, I would not touch a goalie at your 1st round pick. In a 12-team league, you can late-draft Niemi, Varlamov, Anderson, Crawford, Pavelec - all players who have a 30%-40% chance to outshine Lundqvist in any given week.

My top 6 in this league, in order:
*Stamkos
*Malkin
*Crosby
*Ovechkin
*Giroux (IF, IF he's got RW eligibility)
*Tavares

Note: There are points (P) and PPG as extra categories. I like this set-up, it places increased weight on scorers.
PS: Draft 2/4 defensemen as HITS/BkS monsters. It will help you do well in those categories.

Yah, the guy did pick Rinne B2B with Schneider so not completely out of bounds.

I skipped on a goalie with my first pick (Perry) thinking with only 3 teams drafting after me I would still get one of those top goalies in 2nd round. Ended up drafting Rask in 3rd round, and Niemi and Backstrom later.

Pengwin7 does have interesting points. I did notice only 4 goalie cats compared to 10 skater cats. I rarely draft goalies high except for Roto where they are crucial, but it is nice to have a decent starter in H2H to rely on. If 16 goalies went in the first 2 rounds, then Niemi and Varlamov likely gone for sure.

Last year I drafted Quick and Thomas both very late (after first 10 goalies) and they helped me win my other league.

__________________
Current: 3 NHL, 1 NBA
NHL winner '05,'07,'09,'11 (4/7)
NFL winner '10, '12 (2/3)

I also suggest going for a skater for some of the reasons Pengwin suggested (H2H so weekly importance, 10x4 favours skaters). But since he explains it so well, I'll just say:

ditto.

__________________
All I've got...all I've got is insane!

Good points. Can't really debate anything you said as it's all pretty sound, but I can almost guarantee that if people don't take a goalie with their first pick, they will with their second. Make any difference?

And yeah, my plan was to load up on offense and then use some late D picks to shore up my hits and blocks.

As always, solid post penguin!

The FHG number on AO when you include hits/SOG is off the charts, even if his point totals are declining. If you can land him, do it!

We contracted our league this year and AO became available in the draft. I was ready to give up the farm for him. Fired a mad amount of offers to the guys who had the first two picks. Nada, because they knew his value in our league that has hits/SOG.

__________________
H2H (10 Team): G, A, PIM, PPP, SOG, Hits - W, L, Sv%, SO
Keep 4; Play 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 1F, 4D, 1UTL, 2G

C: Giroux, Backstrom, B. Richards, Gagner
RW: Brown, Pavelski, Hodgson, Stewart
LW: Sedin, Clowe, Ryan, Hartnell, Couture
D: Edler, MDZ, Ehrhoff, Seabrook
G: Miller, Bryzgalov, Niemi, Lundqvist
IR Whitney, Enstrom

No, it really shouldn't.

You have 11 other teams in your league (not counting yourself).
At worst, ALL of the other teams take 2 goalies in the first three rounds.

In one of my recently drafted leagues, here's how the goalies went.

TOP TIER GOALIE RUN (I didn't participate in this)
1. Lundqvist (7)
2. Quick (8)
3. Rinne (10)
4. Rask (11)
5. Schneider (12)
6. Ward (19)
7. Bryzgalov (20)
8. Fleury (25)
9. Halak (26)
10. Miller (27)
11. M.Smith (28)
12. Lehtonen (29)
13. Price (30)
14. Hiller (31)
15. Howard (32)
16. Kipper (38)
17. NikBack (40)
...
SECOND TIER GOALIE RUN
18. Niemi (57) [*Now see this, this goalie in ROTO might be worth just 1pt less than the pick above... but he was taken 17 picks later, which means the team drafting him was able to scoop a skater that will be more valuable than every skater behind him... not just 1 spot.]
19. Varlamov (65)
20. Brodeur (68)
21. Luongo (70)
...
22. Pavelec (79) [This is my first goalie... it is 39 picks after the main goalie run... but this is just the 5th goalie away from the end of the run... and I was able to draft really great skaters in rounds 3,4,5 and wait until the 6th round to get a goalie that is just 5 goalies (or call it "5pts" in ROTO) off the main run of goalies.]
...
THIRD TIER GOALIE RUN
23. Anderson (90) [This was my 2nd goalie... again it is 50 picks after the main goalie run... but just the 6th goalie off that run.]
24. Holtby (91)
25. Lindback (102)
26. Crawford (105)
27. Nabokov (107)
28. Elliott (111)
29. Theodore (112)
...
...
...
30. Bobrovsky (156)
...
...
BACK-UPS
31. Vokoun (171)

Now, the ABOVE was for a 14-team league. You see, everybody gets their 2 goalies (2x14 = 28) and pretty much lays off. So after goalie #29, there was a tremendous pause.

What you will see among your 11 opponents is that everybody will reach for their 2 goalies and then wait quite a while (round 7 or 8) until they reach for a 3rd goalie.

What this means is that you are likely to be able to wait until round 6 to get a very, very serviceable #1 goalie. Guys like Crawford (CHI), Anderson (OTT), Pavelec (WPG), Holtby (WAS), and Lindback (TB) are all goalies on playoff-fringe teams. That's pretty decent group to "fall" to you.

And after 5 rounds, while this goalie run is going on... only YOU will have 5 elite forwards on your team while everybody else only has 3. That gives you a tremendous leg up on ALL of your skater cats.

In almost any pool, the top 50% of players (at any position) have full-season value. The remaining 50% of players (at any position) are going to fluctuate and waiver players may end up being better.

In summary, your league is shallow-enough (12 teams) where you can wait on a goalie for a while. I'd load up on elite skaters that will help you to consistently win all of those point-based categories you have (G,A,P,PPP,PPG,SOG).


The age-old truth on "runs".
If you are at the lead of the run, you did well.
If you are at the tail of the run, you probably lost value.