Die-hard baseball fans, die-hard Blue Jays fans and hardcore poolies are united on this belief: The Jays suck, they will continue to suck unless they overhaul the roster, GM AA should be on a short leash or fired.

Fine, they are about to finish with 72 wins, so statistically I can't argue this.

But use your head, people. A typical team will lose a key player for most of the season, and another three key players for 20-game spurts due to injury. Then they'll lose three or four other lesser players here and there. That's normal.

The Blue Jays lost their closer right off the bat. They lost their No.3 and No.4 pitchers for the season. They lost their No.2 pitcher for a quarter of the season. They lost their best hitter for half the season. And their No.1 pitcher completely unraveled. They lost their catcher for a quarter of the season. I've never seen anything like this before. Ever. In any sport. Do you honestly believe that if half of those things didn't happen, that they would have anything less than 85 wins right now?

You know what the Jays need? A normal year. That's it. They were a winning team 40 games in. They learned pretty quickly that they needed depth. Well, the situation forced their hand and they brought in a lot of depth now. Not enough, but a lot. So now, for next season, they have that depth.

If the Yankees lost Rivera, Caroda and Hughes for the entire season, and Canoe and Nova for half the season, Martin for a quarter season...and Sabathia completely unraveled and turned into a 7-win pitcher - I guarantee you they wouldn't have 70 wins right now. But all they lost was Rivera.

What if the Rangers lost Beltre, Darvish, Dempster and Nathan for the season back in May? And Harrison missed two months? They would be around 70 wins right now, come on.


Am I the only one seeing this? Is it because I'm only a casual observer and not hard core, so I'm seeing this at more of a "macro" level than the experts?


Anyway, that's my rant. Despite this, the Jays will still address their need for a veteran starter in the offseason - but probably only one. And they will add a position player, probably at 1B. But they will be adding them to a lineup that will already be stacked with the up-and-coming stars, and healthy players coming back from injury.

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F - Crosby, C.Smith, Wheeler, Parenteau, Hudler, Clowe, Grabovski, Atkinson, Frolik, S. Kostitsyn, Marchand, Peverley, Tavares, Read, Brouwer, Bickell, Gionta, Setoguchi
G - Anderson, Hiller, Markstrom, Brodeur
D - Letang, Del Zotto, I. White, Kronwall, Brodin, Nikitin

I don't think the Jays need to overhaul the roster or that AA is doing all that poorly a job. In fact I think AA has done a pretty solid job and has swindled a handful of GMs. But I'd say that this team deserves a lot of the criticism it's getting. I think that the biggest mistake that the organization made, was that it stated that they planned on being competitive by 2011-2012 which was essentially writing a cheque their ass couldn't cash.

Injuries happen, it's a fact of life. Granted, we suffered a lot more injuries than the average team, but even that in itself could be attributed to lack of foresight. With regards to Santos, I don't know if you saw this feature, but in one of the pre-games Zaun mentioned that Santos' delivery and throwing mechanics were known to lead to arm issues in pitchers, and that perhaps that was why the White Sox were willing to give him up after a 30 save season.

To stay on the same page with regards to pitching and injuries/lack of foresight, way too much pressure on young arms (Drabek - 24, Alvarez - 22, Hutchison - 22). Way too young, inexperienced, and their arms haven't been strengthened enough to handle a full season's workload, let alone if the team went to the playoffs. What if this team did manage to get there? Who would they throw out there in the back half of the typical 4-man playoff rotation? This has pretty much been a question that a lot have had from day one.

To stay on the topic of young players, you can't fault Jays fans for getting frustrated at the huge drop-off between Triple-A and the Major Leagues. I think a big part of that was the fact that our AAA team was in the PCL playing in a hitters league which made a lot of our prospects look way better than maybe they really are. (Glad the team moved their AAA system out of Las Vegas). This is especially an issue for guys like Gose and Hechavarria whose offensive game was questioned to begin with. We broke a can't miss prospect in Travis Snider, and then traded him away when it looked like he was starting to figure it out. Six seasons later and Adam Lind still can't play an everyday position . I played baseball for 13 years (competitively for 7).. all it takes to improve defensively is hard work. I couldn't hit very well but I worked really hard on my defensive game and was basically the 'Johnny Mac' on my ball club.

On another note, I think this team lacks a serious amount of leadership. People will try to make us believe that Jose Bautista is an incredible leader, but I don't see it. He`s a great player, no doubt, but the leadership just isn`t there in the clubhouse right now. Back in the glory years we had guys like Carter, like Winfield...guys who held each other accountable. Granted, it`s pretty tough to find guys like that these days in baseball period...but the lack of discipline is very evident (and I feel has given the team a bad reputation in general across the league).

Are there signs that there could be a bright future, yes. But that light has dimmed considerably I think over the past couple of years. I'm willing to give the team the benefit of the doubt for now, but I'm not willing to forget what has gone on this year and chalk it up to bad luck, because I think it was a lot more than that.

PS: I haven't looked at the crop of FAs but I don't think the Jays would be wise to pursue a 1B...unless it's a veteran hitter that can occasionally play 1B but mostly DH (a la Ortiz). Edwin has done a phenomenal job turning his defensive game around and seems to be comfortable playing first, which I'm not complaining about since Lawrie is doing just fine at 3B. I think they should address their middle infield as I believe KJ is done at the end of this year (hell they didn't even want him back this year, they intended on letting him go for a supplementary pick but he surprised them and re-signed). Escobar's future is also in the air right now I think...and I'm not certain Hechavarria is completely ready yet. And I would be extremely against them moving Lawrie to the middle infield and putting Bautista or Edwin back there. I do think that the team should seriously consider trying to get Shaun Marcum to come back, as he was great friends with Romero and Cecil and could maybe help them turn their games around (though I hate Cecil as a starter, better as a reliever IMO) and would provide them with a strong arm in the rotation.

PPS: I love discussing the Blue Jays. Thanks for this thread.

Awesome thread!! I can talk/read/watch the Blue Jays all day long..

Needs: More veteran presence, a solid hitter at 1B, and 1-2 veteran starters.. Ryan Dempster would be clutch for the Jays to be honest..

A must: give the kids a chance to grow.. Lawrie, Gose, Sierra, Hecceravaecchia(HAHA) are all solid young kids who are the future of the Jays..

The problem with the Jays is they always finish middle of the pack and never have TOP DRAFT PICKS.. But I think AA has done a wonderful job trading for guys, stockpiling prospects, and forming a team that would be successful if healthy..

PATIENCE JAYS FANS PATIENCE!!

"Patience and perseverance have a magical effect before which difficulties disappear and obstacles vanish." John Quincy Adams

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It is just too bad this was the year for all their injuries. With Boston where it is and the Rays and Yankees not having very strong years this could of been their year.

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12 Team NHL Salary Cap Dynasty
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Starters: 12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalies

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Prospects - Calvert, Forsberg, Etem, Namestinikov, Kreider, Cundari

Yes!

My stance is that their ass COULD cash it. If Drabek was out for the season, Romero went down the tubes, and Arencibia was hurt...and that was it, then the Jays would have been fine. But add the Morrow, Bautista, Santos and Hutchison injuries - none of them minor - and it's ridiculous. Their ass could have cashed that check if it was a normal "average" season for a typical MLB team's injuries.

understatement of the century.

I didn't notice this frustration. I think the Triple A guys have been fine

agreed


agreed


I think they go for a 1B via trade and go hard after a pitcher via FA

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14 Team Keeper, points only, best 12 skaters 2 dman 2 G count. Playoffs count.
F - Crosby, C.Smith, Wheeler, Parenteau, Hudler, Clowe, Grabovski, Atkinson, Frolik, S. Kostitsyn, Marchand, Peverley, Tavares, Read, Brouwer, Bickell, Gionta, Setoguchi
G - Anderson, Hiller, Markstrom, Brodeur
D - Letang, Del Zotto, I. White, Kronwall, Brodin, Nikitin

Some terrific points brought up, and I agree with almost all of it.

I think they would be around a .500 team without the injuries.
Why not better?


1) John Farrell
Don't get me wrong, I actually like many things about Farrell, but he's in over his head. For a former pitching coach, he sure doesn't seem to know his pitchers very well (and, frankly, Romero deserved to be bullpenned or sent down a long time ago - he's been fighting his control all season, even when his offense was winning games for him).

2) Too many of their young guys act like superstars, but play like pedestrians
Four of their regulars immediately come to mind under this category... Lawrie, Escobar, Rasmus, and Alvarez. Lots of talent there, but the numbers don't lie - these guys are not playing up to their potential. Lawrie makes mistakes regularly, especially running the bases (and then tells the media it's from "playing hard" and "I'm not going to change" - like Wtf???). Rasmus is too concerned with his signature hand/arm gesture after every out he makes. It's nice that he's playing well defensively and putting up good power/rbi numbers, but how many other players are praised for batting around .225 ? Escobar needs no write-up. Attitude problem 101 and has always been that way (like another poster said in another thread... Atlanta is too smart an organization to trade away young promising talent unless the talent's got baggage.) And Alvarez has a great young arm, but zero focus out there. And every time I see him, he's laughing it up without a care in the world... an odd thing for me see considering his record and ERA.

3) Adam Lind
He's simply not that good. And they pencilled him in as a cornerstone player for some reason.

4) Ricky Romero
He has a good arm still, but I don't care how good your arm is... if you can't command your pitches anymore, and you lose your confidence, you're going to get hammered. Personally, even before the year started, I considered Morrow their ace with Romero #2. Romero is now completely lost, making their lack of starter depth a glaring weakness to fill in the offseason.

Sorry I'm horrible with the multi-quoting thing so I won't even bother haha

@Dobber - The whole 'normal' season with injuries though goes back to my point of lack of foresight...why didn't they pick up on Santos' pitching mechanics before investing so heavily in him as their closer? Why did they have three guys under 25 (two guys at the age of 22) as members of their starting rotation. I'm curious as to how many teams competing for their division lead and/or wildcard were also in that situation. I'd bet not many.

To be competitive in the AL East, many have said that you need to have at least 90 wins. Even with the added wildcard spot, you probably need around 90+ wins to take one of those two spots. Would the Jays be a 90 win team without their injuries? I highly doubt it.

With regards to my blurb about the drop off from AAA to MLB numbers, I was actually referring to more than just this year (poor wording on my part). Gose though to me needs A LOT of work on his plate discipline before he should ever be considered a lead-off man like the team had pencilled him in to be.

Just seems like every other team has that guy that comes in and hits the ground running to fill a hole in the lineup, whereas the Jays haven't really had one of those guys in recent years. Even golden boys like Snider, Lind, Arencibia...they'd tear apart the PCL, come up and at times struggle to stay above the Mendoza line. Lind has always and seemingly will always be a defensive liability, and Arencibia has been pretty brutal defensively this year IMO.

I would also consider the injury to Santos as possibly a blessing in disguise. Without that injury to Santos, Janssen wouldn't have had the chance to strut his stuff as a closer. I wonder what they do next year. Janssen is a pretty versatile pitcher, came up as a starter, was middle relief for awhile, and settled into the setup man role until this year. I wonder where they ask him to pitch next season.

@eyemissgilmour

I wonder a lot too about Farrell. Seems like a nice guy, but I wonder about HIS leadership abilities as well. I wonder a lot why this team is so undisciplined, and players repeat their behaviour that should be nipped in the bud...especially with a young team.
Also, doesn't really feel like Farrell goes to bat for his players in-game. Has he been tossed once from a ball game? I've never seen him REALLY irate before...and while obviously I don't want him to be like an Ozzie Guillen, it would be nice if he showed some fire once and awhile.

Sometimes I like to wonder how this team would fare, if we could swap everything back in the Halladay deal. Take away Gose, Drabek, and D'Arnaud from this team and have Halladay as the ace of the rotation, sheltering Romero from the ace hype that was given to him far earlier than it should have been.

Straight up, they lost too many man games this year. When you are bringing up your depth guys from AA to play or pitch, you know you are having a bad year in jury wise. It was just a really bad year for them.

I like what AA has done with the minor league system but he really needs to turn some of those prospects into quality Major League players. They Jays arent that far off to making a wildcard spot, if they could field the team they want to. They really need some depth in their starting rotation, some depth that contains MLB experience. If AA is smart he will turn a prospect or two into a quality starter or two.

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Stamkos, Tavares, Hall, Couture, Hanzal, Wheeler, Stastny, Versteeg, Fisher, Hornqvist, Eriksson, Hodgson, Setoguchi, Turris, Steen, Letang, DRoy, Yakupov, Grabner, Byfuglien, Baertschi

G-Rask, Halak, Schneider

What I'm going to find REALLY interesting is which one of D'Arnaud/Arencibia AA decides to hang onto. Looks right now like it'll be Arencibia...but I'm not really all that high on him to be honest.

Great article by Ken Rosenthal (love his opinions on things personally)

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/t...ubhouse-092512

To summarize the article, Ken definitely attributes a lot of the issues to injuries, but at the same time addresses the lack of veteran leadership on the squad. According to his article, they plan on going after a second baseman, left fielder, and starting pitcher (d'uh). Also a lot in there about the character of certain players, including Arencibia, Bautista, Lawrie, etc.

Great read.