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  #1  
Old 08-21-2012, 06:27 PM
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Default Yes Boys's, The Mother of all Break Out Threads

OK....or not....hopefully I got your attention!

Yes, I'm as desperate for some hockey as the rest of you.

I have been following all the "who is your breakout candidate" threads throught the summer and have been compiling some numbers. I have a list of 60 players that some of you favour, but thought I would boil things down to a much shorter list and solicit your opinions on those players that have already recieved a lot of your "votes". Don't get really hung up on the term breakout, what we are looking for are players, and yes, most are younger, who will take a significant next step and become fantasy relevant. For me, I am looking for those guys who establish themselves as very strong keepers candidates in a league that only allows for an average of 6 protected forwards. So this is absolutely about the numbers next year than the potential 3 years down the road. Ball park, think 65 -75 pts.

I would like everyone to consider the list and offer your rankings, point projections and the reasons behind your opinion. Again, I'll keep the list short, but I guess if you see a glaring ommision, then by all means include that in your response. Have some fun.

Here we go, these are the guys who have recieved multiple mentions in break out threads:

Voracek
Ennis
Schenn
Berglund
Kane
Boedeker
Bobby Ryan
Perron
Hodgson
Couturier
JVR
Duchene
Okoposo
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  #2  
Old 08-21-2012, 06:59 PM
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Bobby Ryan has already broken out though, he's a 60-70 pt NHLer.

You can go with pretty much any young gun here who hasn't yet gotten 60 pts, Skinner and Hall could be 70s, same with RNH, Landeskog, etc.
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Old 08-21-2012, 07:06 PM
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1- Bobby Ryan: I don't know how he'd be a breakout player since he already has a 71-point season and a 64-point season. He's more of a bounce-back candidate than a breakout one. But since you included him, he's probably the best player (production-wise) on this list.

2- Kane: He's going to be a great power forward for the next decade and the Jets are lucky to have him. He appears to me as one of the safest pick of this bunch as he'll get a lot of ice-time, is the best forward of his team and has the body strenght to last the full season and not get injured. He'll obviously score 30-35 goals but will his assist total be enough for 65-70 points? I say, yeah.

3- Ennis: I'm having so much trouble with Ennis but only because he's so interesting for next season and the future. He had a great end to last year and he should see his ice-time rise by a good amount. Still, he's had frequent injuries and never had the pressure of being a #1 center before (though he may battle with Hodgson for that title).

4- Duchene: He had a disappointing season last year but I think everyone is going a bit fast by proclaiming he's obviously going to go back over 60 points. There's not much offense in Colorado and Statsny and O'Reilly are still there to steal ice-time. I don't think it's a stretch at all to believe he'll struggle again this year. But then again, he has the talent to prove me wrong.

5- Voracek: Logic says his ice-time will increase and he could play on Giroux's line so there's a good chance he has his best year. Still, I have a hard time seeing him muster up much more than 60 points.

6- Berglund: He may be the most talented of the bunch and he had strong playoffs but he plays for the Blues. That means his minutes won't be big and he'll have to focus a lot on his defense. I can see him score 65 points but it'd still be a surprise.

7- Perron: As a French-Canadian myself, I obviously love him but for the same reasons as Berglund, I just don't think he will reach 65 points. Not with the Blues.

8- Hodgson: Never have been impressed by Hodgson. I've seen him in quite a few games and while I see some of the talent, I just don't think he's that good of a player. He'll get good ice-time with the Sabres but his wingers are going to be average and I don't think he can elevate the play of his teammates enough for him to score 65 points.

9- Okposo: We've been waiting 3 years for him to break out and he has done it yet. Wether it's injuries, bad teammates or simply erratic play, he's never shown much consistency. He'll get to play with Tavares and Moulson and that should help but I'd rather see it before I believe it.

10- Couturier: A great defensive player who'll get his shot offensively. I think he'll get close to 60-65 points in two years. But next year, I'd bank much more on 45-50 points.

11- Schenn: I think he's going to be a very solid player and he could one day score more than 60 points but it's surely not going to be next year. Come back in a couple years.

12- JVR: Never scored 50 points in Philly, I doubt he'll do it in Toronto. Sure, he should play with Kessel but he's also fragile and simply never did well enough for me to believe in him. I'd pass.

13- Boedkker: Meh...He had interesting playoffs but he plays for the Yotes. Sure, somebody will have to score for them as they lost Whitney and Doan but I feel like it'll be more of a committee of 5-6 players with 40-50 points (à la Nashville) more than one productive line.
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Old 08-21-2012, 07:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by niconasr View Post
1- Bobby Ryan: I don't know how he'd be a breakout player since he already has a 71-point season and a 64-point season. He's more of a bounce-back candidate than a breakout one. But since you included him, he's probably the best player (production-wise) on this list.

2- Kane: He's going to be a great power forward for the next decade and the Jets are lucky to have him. He appears to me as one of the safest pick of this bunch as he'll get a lot of ice-time, is the best forward of his team and has the body strenght to last the full season and not get injured. He'll obviously score 30-35 goals but will his assist total be enough for 65-70 points? I say, yeah.

3- Ennis: I'm having so much trouble with Ennis but only because he's so interesting for next season and the future. He had a great end to last year and he should see his ice-time rise by a good amount. Still, he's had frequent injuries and never had the pressure of being a #1 center before (though he may battle with Hodgson for that title).

4- Duchene: He had a disappointing season last year but I think everyone is going a bit fast by proclaiming he's obviously going to go back over 60 points. There's not much offense in Colorado and Statsny and O'Reilly are still there to steal ice-time. I don't think it's a stretch at all to believe he'll struggle again this year. But then again, he has the talent to prove me wrong.

5- Voracek: Logic says his ice-time will increase and he could play on Giroux's line so there's a good chance he has his best year. Still, I have a hard time seeing him muster up much more than 60 points.

6- Berglund: He may be the most talented of the bunch and he had strong playoffs but he plays for the Blues. That means his minutes won't be big and he'll have to focus a lot on his defense. I can see him score 65 points but it'd still be a surprise.

7- Perron: As a French-Canadian myself, I obviously love him but for the same reasons as Berglund, I just don't think he will reach 65 points. Not with the Blues.

8- Hodgson: Never have been impressed by Hodgson. I've seen him in quite a few games and while I see some of the talent, I just don't think he's that good of a player. He'll get good ice-time with the Sabres but his wingers are going to be average and I don't think he can elevate the play of his teammates enough for him to score 65 points.

9- Okposo: We've been waiting 3 years for him to break out and he has done it yet. Wether it's injuries, bad teammates or simply erratic play, he's never shown much consistency. He'll get to play with Tavares and Moulson and that should help but I'd rather see it before I believe it.

10- Couturier: A great defensive player who'll get his shot offensively. I think he'll get close to 60-65 points in two years. But next year, I'd bank much more on 45-50 points.

11- Schenn: I think he's going to be a very solid player and he could one day score more than 60 points but it's surely not going to be next year. Come back in a couple years.

12- JVR: Never scored 50 points in Philly, I doubt he'll do it in Toronto. Sure, he should play with Kessel but he's also fragile and simply never did well enough for me to believe in him. I'd pass.

13- Boedkker: Meh...He had interesting playoffs but he plays for the Yotes. Sure, somebody will have to score for them as they lost Whitney and Doan but I feel like it'll be more of a committee of 5-6 players with 40-50 points (à la Nashville) more than one productive line.
Hmmm...13 players and only 1 you like...lol.

I think Hodgson & Ennis will hit 60 pt's next year but 65 is a reach. I think Voracek is going to hit 65, playing with giroux has inspired him and i think helped him realize his own potential and having Hartnell gives him some physical secuirity.
I think Duchene will have a great season and both him and P.A. will break 65pt's.
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Old 08-21-2012, 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted by 5hole View Post
Hmmm...13 players and only 1 you like...lol.

I think Hodgson & Ennis will hit 60 pt's next year but 65 is a reach. I think Voracek is going to hit 65, playing with giroux has inspired him and i think helped him realize his own potential and having Hartnell gives him some physical secuirity.
I think Duchene will have a great season and both him and P.A. will break 65pt's.
Lol, I realize it looks like that but it's not true. I like a lot of those players but the OP asked for which one can make 65 points next year and only 40 players did that last year. That's barely one per team. Not a lot!

Honestly, I would like to own all of these players (except maybe the last two) in most points-only league because I think they'll all do good. But not 65 points!
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Old 08-21-2012, 07:40 PM
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I really like niconasr's post. Don't necessarily agree with all of them (but agree with most of them), but the explanations are well laid out.
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Old 08-21-2012, 08:06 PM
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Voracek - yes. I have him pegged for the low 70s. He's a great playmaker, a sound two-way forward, and dangerous player on the PP. The top line spot is his.

Ennis - yes. Buffalo is really high on him and he's their top center. 60-65.

Schenn - Not sure if it is this year or one more before Schenn breaks out. The glimpses are there, but the consistency isn't... yet.

Berglund - no. Not in St. Louis, at least not yet. He's been a breakout candidate for three years.

Kane - yes, but probably not yet. Doesn't have an elite center to play with (Scheifele in a few years).

Boedeker - will break out relative to past production, definitely. More ice time and more offensive opportunities. Will be hard to crack 45-50 points on that Coyotes roster.

Bobby Ryan - already been there.

Perron - no - too much depth in STL right now, especially with Schwartz and Vlad Tarasenko coming in.

Hodgson - PP spe******t, needs to work on skating to be a top six forward. Will score 20-25 goals.

Couturier - going to get Staal'd or Hanzal'd (whichever you prefer) because he is so good defensively.

JVR - not yet.

Duchene - not enough ice time to go around for Duchene, Stastny, and ROR. Someone will lose out. Duchene should on paper click with Parenteau... intriguing potential there for a top line.

Okposo - I'm not sure he has the hockey sense to be a star at the NHL level.
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Old 08-21-2012, 08:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubba55 View Post

Here we go, these are the guys who have recieved multiple mentions in break out threads:
I think there are a few players that fall into different categories. I feel that a few players are more dependant on opportunity to break out than others. A few of these players are guaranteed the shot at success, a few need a door opened in order to see if their skills flourish.

Bobby Ryan - He has broken out and regradless of where he is playing youre looking at 35 goals and 65 points. I think the battle in ANA will come to a head and he will either have a solid year or be gone.
Voracek - I am looking at 65-75 points over the next 3 years. The opportunity is there, he is a player trusted by his coach, he established a spot on the PP during the playoffs and he has a shot to play with one of the best players in the game. He is also all but guaranteed top 6 time.
Duchene - The player I am most excited to see. I have a few friends that are Avs fans who rave about him and are adamant that he was injured almost all last year. His speed, hands and abilities with opportunity mean this is the year for 65 points and I do not see him looking back, ever.
Kane - Another young player ready to put it all together with all the opportunity. I have been trying to get Kane in my other pool for three years. I think 30 goals and 60 points are there and he will lead Win in scoring for the next few years. 40 goals will come and the physical play is just a bonus.

The next group are paired as they are on the same teams and sher some of the same issues.

Perron/Berglund - where I think Perron is more talented offensively right now, berglund has a better shot at the second line C spot and will eventually be better than. Perron has injury woes as well. Their biggest problem is thaeir coach and system whhich I doubt will allow either of them to break 60 points this year.

Ennis/Hodgson - One of the better battles. Both could be the #1 C in BUF. Ennis' game emerged at the end of last year but whichever of these players can develop chemistry with Vanek and or Pomminville first is likely to get the advantage. I like Hodgson to succeed this year as the #1C, but maybe not out of camp. I also like Ennis on the wing and see these two as potential linemates (especially if they decide to keep Grigorenko or Ott fits in the top 6) Regardless You are looking at a top end of 60 points this year.

Schenn/Couturier - Two young talented players fighting for minutes on a talented team. Unlike the previous pairings PHI can score, but PP time is vary hard to come by as is an offensive role. Couturier has all but locked up teh thired line C role so my vote is for Schenn to out produce his teammate. If things go well with Briere I can see Schenn approaching 50 points this year and then 70 is not out of the question over the following two years. (All bets are off if either is traded though..HA)

Finally teh Wild Cards of the bunch:

Boedeker I have had Boedeker on my bench for years. I think he has all the skills and all-star speed. With that said I can not see any scenario where he exceeds 55 points. That would be a breakout for sure on PHX but like the boys in St. Louis, 55 might be the top scoreer for the next 3 years.

JVR - 90 points easily.. (I am a Leaf fan..cough..cough..) Sorry. I think TO will be a big adjustent for JVR. IF he gets the #1 C role and IF he develops chemistry with Kessel/Lupul and IF ... well 65 points would be a great year for him. My feeling is that he would be a great compliment to a second line with Grabovski if a winger gets moved. there are also injury woes but I am assuming he is in perfect health. (cough..cough..Leaf fan)

Okoposo - The biggest wild card of the bunch. I also think he is the palyer who will step up, score 35 goals and break 65 points. The guy is about to be rescued from Frans Neilson by JT and he will not look back. He makes me nervous but if I can get my hands on Okposo, I trade him after his first hat trick for a reliable 75 point player. He may only get 1 week or 1 year on JT's wing so I am pulling that trigger as soon as I can. I hate the Isle enough to know I know absolutely nothing about what is ever going to happen there.

I am really praying there is no lockout.
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Old 08-22-2012, 12:35 AM
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Old 08-22-2012, 10:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by niconasr View Post
1- Bobby Ryan: I don't know how he'd be a breakout player since he already has a 71-point season and a 64-point season. He's more of a bounce-back candidate than a breakout one. But since you included him, he's probably the best player (production-wise) on this list.

2- Kane: He's going to be a great power forward for the next decade and the Jets are lucky to have him. He appears to me as one of the safest pick of this bunch as he'll get a lot of ice-time, is the best forward of his team and has the body strenght to last the full season and not get injured. He'll obviously score 30-35 goals but will his assist total be enough for 65-70 points? I say, yeah.

3- Ennis: I'm having so much trouble with Ennis but only because he's so interesting for next season and the future. He had a great end to last year and he should see his ice-time rise by a good amount. Still, he's had frequent injuries and never had the pressure of being a #1 center before (though he may battle with Hodgson for that title).

4- Duchene: He had a disappointing season last year but I think everyone is going a bit fast by proclaiming he's obviously going to go back over 60 points. There's not much offense in Colorado and Statsny and O'Reilly are still there to steal ice-time. I don't think it's a stretch at all to believe he'll struggle again this year. But then again, he has the talent to prove me wrong.

5- Voracek: Logic says his ice-time will increase and he could play on Giroux's line so there's a good chance he has his best year. Still, I have a hard time seeing him muster up much more than 60 points.

6- Berglund: He may be the most talented of the bunch and he had strong playoffs but he plays for the Blues. That means his minutes won't be big and he'll have to focus a lot on his defense. I can see him score 65 points but it'd still be a surprise.

7- Perron: As a French-Canadian myself, I obviously love him but for the same reasons as Berglund, I just don't think he will reach 65 points. Not with the Blues.

8- Hodgson: Never have been impressed by Hodgson. I've seen him in quite a few games and while I see some of the talent, I just don't think he's that good of a player. He'll get good ice-time with the Sabres but his wingers are going to be average and I don't think he can elevate the play of his teammates enough for him to score 65 points.

9- Okposo: We've been waiting 3 years for him to break out and he has done it yet. Wether it's injuries, bad teammates or simply erratic play, he's never shown much consistency. He'll get to play with Tavares and Moulson and that should help but I'd rather see it before I believe it.

10- Couturier: A great defensive player who'll get his shot offensively. I think he'll get close to 60-65 points in two years. But next year, I'd bank much more on 45-50 points.

11- Schenn: I think he's going to be a very solid player and he could one day score more than 60 points but it's surely not going to be next year. Come back in a couple years.

12- JVR: Never scored 50 points in Philly, I doubt he'll do it in Toronto. Sure, he should play with Kessel but he's also fragile and simply never did well enough for me to believe in him. I'd pass.

13- Boedkker: Meh...He had interesting playoffs but he plays for the Yotes. Sure, somebody will have to score for them as they lost Whitney and Doan but I feel like it'll be more of a committee of 5-6 players with 40-50 points (à la Nashville) more than one productive line.
I'll comment only on a few, the one's I leave I agree with. Great post BTW.

E. Kane: I like the guy and he's a killer shooter, but I don't see his assist total rising all that much. I sort of think he's in a similar situation to Kessel two years ago in TO. He's going to be a driving force offensively but he doesn't have much support with him. At least not enough to push his assist total up to make 70 points. I'd say mild improvement with another 30 goals. He won't push past that for at least next season, but my gut says next two.

Ennis/Hodgson: Why does everyone think the number one role is Hodgson's? He's going to be a sophomore who barely outscored Ennis last season in 35 more games. He also struggled hard with Buffalo. While Ennis struggled with injuries last season, he played at a better pace last season than he did in his first (which at 49 points was quite impressive). Hodgson was also very sheltered last year in Vancouver before the trade. He's simply not ready for top line minutes yet. Even if Ennis isn't either. Ennis is just more likely to get that top line job in my mind. So yes I think Ennis is ready for a breakout. Or at the very least a successful 60 point season. Hodgson isn't ready to break out and people are hoping for way to much if they are expecting him to take over the top line spot.

Voracek: I'm not a believer. Just a gut feeling more than actual analysis but sometimes that's enough. He's not a sniper, and more of a playmaker. Is that really going to be a massive tool for Giroux to use now? I don't see it. He's a decent fantasy player but I think he's going to be one of those guys that puts up his 16-18 goals, and 50 points. No more, no less.

Couturier: I have to agree with Angus. He's going to get Staal'd/Hanzal'd. There is too much in front of him offensively to justify bringing him up offensively and he's shown a great ability to play defensively. Why risk losing that if your Philly? To be honest, as good as Couturier has been, I'm still not a fan of Philly picking him. They should have taken Hamilton. I'm going on an irrelevant tangent but I think that was a pick that's value wasn't maximized. But I digress. Simple answer, Couturier won't break out this season.

Schenn: Harder to determine for me. He had a very good playoffs so it's possible he gets more offensive opportunity this year. I definitely see him improving offensively. 40-50 points maybe? I don't think that's out of the question. 60? Unlikely.

JVR - Interesting player in an interesting situation. He probably has the best opportunity going forward out of all the players listed. He's being given a shot at the top line center spot, with Kessel/Lupul. At the very least, he'll be given a deadly weapon in Kessel to work with, and if Lupul plays like he has when given more than 15 minutes a game in his career, another potential weapon on his other wing. While he's never played center in the NHL, he's almost the exact type of player the Leafs are looking for in the center spot between Kessel/Lupul. A player that has speed to keep up with Kessel, a player that is both adept at shooting as well as passing (helps to effectively use all of Kessel's skills, giving him a player that he can feed passes to, as well as take passes from to shoot) and has size that will allow him to protect the puck and work along the boards. He isn't a punishing player but that's ok. He's got the skill to work between those two. But the biggest thing he will get is time. Up to this point he hasn't received much in Philly. He's average around 14 minutes over his career. However the one time he received more than that was in the 2011 Playoffs, where he (or everyone assumed) broke out. He received 19 minutes a game in those 11 games, taking 70 shots, scoring 7 goals. Maybe that was an anomaly, maybe not. But he's got a perfect shot to break out this year. Injuries could be an issue but hopefully he has time to recover. Or even the lockout might help him more. But he'd legitimately be my choice for a breakout player. Likely not 70 or even 80 points, but 60? I think it's feasible.

Him and Ennis are my two most likely breakout players on that list.
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14T BiWeekly H2H. 4 C/RW/LW, 6 D, 2 G
Cats:G(3), A(1.5), +-(1), PIM(0.2), PPP(1), SOG(0.2), GWG(1), SHP(2), Hits(0.3), BkS(0.4). W(2), SO(2), OTL(0.5), SV(0.2), GA(-1), L(-1).

LW - Pactches, Benn, Ott, Foligno, Belesky
C - Staal, Thornton, M Richards, Giroux
RW - Ovie, Hossa, Callahan, Tara, Neil
D - Weber, OEL, Shatty, Seidenberg, Suter, Wiz, Beauch, Wiz, MacDonald
G - Lundqvist, Varlamov, Allen
Prospects - Schultz, M Rielly, Ramo, Brodin, RNH, Forsberg, D Shore, Trouba, Bjugstad
IR- RNH, Kulikov
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