Guys the real thing I'm looking at here is value in terms of Tavares. I do value him quite highly in regards to upside but when will we hit his stride? Does NYI have to get him the right wingers or what?

Basically I have my keepers established and am looking at an offer come draft night of Tavares/Hiller for my Howard/Benn. Given the scope over the next couple of years and with my stat cats listed below which side of the table would you rather be on? Don't forget that our salaries are based on cap hit.

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64M Cap, Partial Keeper: 4F(ANY) 2D, 2G, Year 1: H2H Daily Starts 2C/2LW/2RW/1F/4D/2G, 14 Teams

Pro

C: Crosby,Getzlaf
LW: Parise,Benn,
RW: Voracek,Ovechkin, Iggy
D: Karlsson, Shattenkirk Carle, Goligoski
G: Theo., Rask, Markstrom


Farm:
Tarasenko, Huberdeau, T. Hall, Hackett, Silfverberg, Yakupov, B.Smith, Josi

Stat Categories

Skaters
FOW(.1) G(4) A(3) PPG(1.5) PPA(1) SHG(3) SHA(2) GWG(1) SOG(.2) +-(1) PIMS(.1) BLK(.2) HIT(.2)
Goalies
W(6) L(-1) SHO(5) SV(0.1) GA(-0.2) GAA(Range of -1 to 8) SV%(Range of -1 to 8)
Twitter:@RogerWi1co

I would take Tavares any day of the week, and I don't even acknowledge Benn in the same level as Tavares. Benn may also have a higher contract than Tavares when he resigns at the rate things are escalating.

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12 Team NHL Salary Cap Dynasty -daily starts
H2H, Salary Cap 82mil, Player actual salaries (all)
+/-,G,A,GWG,PTS,STP,PIM,SOG,HT,BS,GAA,SO,SV,W
Starters: 12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalies

Forwards: Fleischmann, Duchene, Ennis, Kessel, M.Koivu, Neal, Conacher, D.Sedin, H.Sedin, Bailey, J.Thornton, Bozak
Defense: Carlson, Gardiner, Kulikov, Franson, Dillon, MacDonald
Goalie: Rask, Crawford
Reserves: B.Schenn, Cowen, Fraser, Gryba, Brodeur, Emery, Pavelec
Prospects: Gallagher, Chiasson, Killorn, A.Larsson, Murphy, Rielly
Fantrax TAHL 2013 Champion

Tavares all day for me. The guy has steadily improved every year in the league and had 81 points on a brutal team last year.

He could be a 95-100 point guy in the next couple years once the Isles get even slightly better.

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- WHL colour man and scout and former writer for fantasyhockeycoach.com

Twitter @ http://twitter.com/#!/WHLFromAbove

Tavares would be my #4 pick in a points-only full keeper... before Giroux & Ovechkin!

There are leagues though where I'd change that up.
In a SOG league, I'd take Ovechkin before Tavares.
In a HITS league, I'd take Ovechkin before Tavares.

I would also take Hiller over Howard, which nobody seems to be commenting on but is a big part of the deal too. But yea, definitely JT over Benn, no competition.

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12 Team Keeper, Keep 17, Keepers
Roster: 4C, 3RW, 3LW, 5D, 2U, 3B, 3IR, 4G (Start 2)
Stats: G(3), A(2), +/-, PIM(0.5), PPP(2), SHP(3), GWG(2), HITS(0.1), BLKS(0.2), W(3), L(-1), OTL (1), GA(-1), SV(0.2), SO(3)

C: Crosby, Tavares, Nugent-Hopkins, Johansson
LW: Hall, Parise, Silfverberg, Skinner, Conacher, Jokinen
RW: Seguin, Hossa, Wheeler, Burns, Pavelski, Yakupov
D: Doughty, Fowler, J. Johnson
G: Schneider, Hiller, Fasth, Nabokov

Big T here for me too. Easy choice IMO.

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Derek Reese - Future Hall of Famer
Studs N Duds - Sunday's

12 Team NHL Salary Cap Dynasty
H2H, Salary Cap 82mil, Player actual salaries
G,A,PTS,GWG,PIM,SOG,STP,HT,BL,+/-,W,GAA,SV,SO
Starters: 12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalies

F - Stamkos, Perry, E.Staal, Voracek, J.Staal, Simmonds, Ott, Downie, J.Jokinen, Eller, Nielson, Prust
D - Martin, Faulk, Brodie, Ellerby, M.Weber, Stone
G - Bobrovsky, Halak
Bench - Brunner, Brodie, Strachan, Khudobin, Lindback, Neuvirth, Ramo

Prospects - Calvert, Forsberg, Etem, Namestinikov, Kreider, Cundari

I'd probably take the Tavares/Hiller side, but before I say that with absolute certainty I'd be curious to see what the point production was for all four players was last year given your settings.

This one is closer than it looks.

Wendel's scoring categories aren't intuitive -- 40 FOW are roughly equal to a goal. 20 hits are roughly equal to a goal.

Benn is listed in your sig as LW. He plays C. Normally I'd advocate against moving a LW for a C due to positional scarcity, but that doesn't apply here.

Where JT and Benn differ:

FOW - 800+ for JT vs ~350 for Benn - roughly a difference of 45 FPts
Hits - Roughly 30 for JT vs ~140 for Benn - a difference of 22 FPts
+/- - a little in the hole for JT and +20ish for Benn - a difference of 25 FPts, though that gap should narrow as the Isles get better and Benn plays tougher minutes.

Scoring and overall points - most think that JT has a higher upside, and I agree.

I'd give the edge to JT with the proviso that as Benn becomes more comfortable as a centre, his FOW are bound to increase. If he gets to be good at it (ie 800+) then you need to be confident that JT will outscore him by at least 15 points annually for the JT side to look better. I'm comfortable with that risk.

On the goalies, I have no idea how to apply points to GAA and SV% since your sig doesn't give any guidance there... so I'll just ignore those stats.

You'd expect Hiller to play at least 10 more games than Howard, though for them to have similar win totals in that 30ish range. Shutouts should be close to a wash. Hiller will see more losses, more shots, and more goals against (due to more starts) but my rough calcs show their overall numbers being close to a wash.

I'd prefer Hiller.

So, minor edge in this scoring setup to JT and minor edge to Hiller. I'd take that side!

Anyone telling you it's not close probably hasn't looked too carefully at your scoring setup.

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Winning hockey pools isnt all about the stats, it is all about gut feelings. You cant win a hockey pool with out one. How many times have you entered a hockey pool and picked the "best players" and still lost? And how many times have you caught yourself thinking "How did I lose when I picked the guys who are suppossed to be the best? How did the guy that won know that player would score that many points?"
Its pretty easy how the guy who won knew that the player would score so many points, he went with his gut feeling. Thast what so great about this site, everyone has thier own gut feelings on a particlar player/trade/team. If it was all about the stats this site would be useless as everyone would have all the answers from Dobbers projections and the variuos fantasy mags. But there is one thing that Dobbers projections and the variuos fantasy mags are lacking and that is the gut feelings.

It is my gut feeling that Tavares/Hiller side wins by a land slide and If I was in Smokies position and would make this trade everyday and twice on Sunday.

__________________
Derek Reese - Future Hall of Famer
Studs N Duds - Sunday's

12 Team NHL Salary Cap Dynasty
H2H, Salary Cap 82mil, Player actual salaries
G,A,PTS,GWG,PIM,SOG,STP,HT,BL,+/-,W,GAA,SV,SO
Starters: 12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalies

F - Stamkos, Perry, E.Staal, Voracek, J.Staal, Simmonds, Ott, Downie, J.Jokinen, Eller, Nielson, Prust
D - Martin, Faulk, Brodie, Ellerby, M.Weber, Stone
G - Bobrovsky, Halak
Bench - Brunner, Brodie, Strachan, Khudobin, Lindback, Neuvirth, Ramo

Prospects - Calvert, Forsberg, Etem, Namestinikov, Kreider, Cundari

No, if there is one thing Dobber's projections are lacking it's support for a scoring system that looks like:

G - 4
A - 3
+/- - 1
PIM - 0.1
HIT - 0.2
BLK - 0.2
PPG - 1.5
PPA - 1
SHG - 3
SHA - 2
GWG - 1
SOG - 0.2
FOW - 0.1

Can anybody reasonably state that they can have a gut feel for how a player will perform in that setup?

The gut feelings you talk about can be quantified, and in a scoring setup like this they NEED to be calculated out or you won't have an idea of what a player will produce in this league.

Are you saying that JT will be a 45/50 guy? Where will his PIM sit? What about FOW? SOG?

If we're talking about JT being a 50 G, 50 A, even, 25 PIM, 30 hit, 25 BLK, 10 PPG, 25 PPA, 0 SHG, 0 SHA, 10 GWG, 300 SOG, 800 FOW player... that's worth 554 FPts in this setup.

Benn could put up 554 FPts by being a 30 G, 55 A, +20, 70 PIM, 200 hit, 60 blk, 7 PPG, 23 PPA, 2 SHG, 1 SHA, 10 GWG, 250 SOG, 900 FOW player.

All of those things have a big effect in this scoring setup, so it's not enough (in my view) to just say that you've got a gut feeling. David Backes' 60-point season in 2010/11 was worth pretty much the same in this scoring setup as John Tavares' 81-point season last year.

Just looking at points isn't enough in this league.

And to answer your question, every league I win I do it by systematically managing to the league's scoring system, identifying soft spots (ie the gaps between what an intuitive "manage for points" approach and a rigorous approach based on the scoring setup of the particular league) and exploiting them.

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