Since the league started back in 2008, Matt Ryan has been the 11th, 15th, 7th, and 6th highest scoring QB in the league.

While I'm not sure that he'll be a perennial top five QB, he's definitely locked into that second tier of guys behind Brees/Rodgers/Brady I think. There's a lot of variables there, with Stafford's health, Newton's ability to improve upon a record shattering rookie season, etc.

I'm a little surprised by the lack of love for Dalton. I don't think the guy will ever be a premier QB, as he seems to be limited by less than stellar arm strength, but I like what little I saw out of him last year (don't watch a ton of Bengals games here in Philly, lol) and figured he's going to have AJ Green to throw to for a while which has to be a plus. What is it I'm missing? Is his ceiling just that low?

Thanks as always for the advice.

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16 Team Dynasty League
Skaters:
G=3.6A=3.6PPP=.9SHP=.9FOW=.1FOL=-.1Blocked Shots=.3SOG=.2Hits=.2PIMs=.2+/-=.7
Goalies:
W=5L=-5GA=-.75Save=.5SO=12.5OTL=2.5
CCrosby,Backstrom,Giroux,Shaw,Goc
LWLucic,Tlusty,Ponikarovsky,,G.Bourque,M.Martin
RWHeatley,Umberger,Clarkson,Prospal,Setoguchi,N.John son
DEnstrom,Boyle,Burns,Nikitin,Diaz
GLuongo,Nabokov,Bernier,Bobrovsky
IR
FGranlund,Yakupov,K.Palmieri,Jarnkrok,Khokhlachev,H ertl,Girgensons,Paajarvi,Beach,Beck,Eakin,Ashton,R undblad,Gormley,Spurgeon,Morrow,Schmaltz,Campbell

There's more to it than simply 'ranking' - it's his age, weapons and the trends in the NFL. He has possibly the best pair of WR in the league (Roddy White and Julio Jones), an aging, but still viable stud TE (Gonzo) and a workhorse RB+a pretty good set of committee backs in case Tuner IS hitting the downside.

Ultimately that's a pretty loaded offense - and he's already in sniffing top 5.

The value of a player isn't just his points it's where you can get him in the draft. As Strider notes he's gone from 11th to 15th to 7th to 6th in scoring over the last 4 years in his league. Virtually the definition of 'just outside the top 5' - plus reason for him to take a step forward with the changes to his team.

The real key to valuing a player is perception of others vs. the reality vs. the expectations. What I mean by that is taking Aaron Rodgers at 4th overall when he has an ADP of 4th overall is not at all surprising. If he performs as expected you got fair value from the pick. Taking him 1st overall is possibly losing in value and taking him 15th overall is likely to be sweet value.

Matt Ryan is the 6-8th best QB this year on paper and his ADP has him going 10th among QB's. That's opportunity, simply put. Now analyze the pairings you can make with your #5 overall pick and your #65 overall pick. With #5 I can get Aaron Rodgers (possibly) and at #65 maybe I can get Roy Helu. Or I could use my #5 pick and get Ryan Matthews and then use #65 on Matt Ryan.

The difference between Rodgers and Ryan may be 70 pts., but the difference between Matthews and Helu might be 100. You tell me what's best for your team. I'd take the 30 pts.

Ended up taking the Ryan deal. Thanks everybody for the help.

Great points about Rodgers/Helu vs. Mathews/Ryan. I also loved the points brought up in the ramblings a while back about building your draft from the bottom up. Never thought about it like that before, but it's definitely an approach I'll be taking in one of my leagues this year.

Got another proposal in my inbox today, and figured rather than start a new thread I'd just tack it on here. Straight swap - L. Robinson for K. Smith. I'm not sure Robinson repeats last year's performance in Jacksonville, and Kevin Smith would give me some insurance for Jahvid Best. That said I still think Robinson is a bit much. Thoughts?

__________________
16 Team Dynasty League
Skaters:
G=3.6A=3.6PPP=.9SHP=.9FOW=.1FOL=-.1Blocked Shots=.3SOG=.2Hits=.2PIMs=.2+/-=.7
Goalies:
W=5L=-5GA=-.75Save=.5SO=12.5OTL=2.5
CCrosby,Backstrom,Giroux,Shaw,Goc
LWLucic,Tlusty,Ponikarovsky,,G.Bourque,M.Martin
RWHeatley,Umberger,Clarkson,Prospal,Setoguchi,N.John son
DEnstrom,Boyle,Burns,Nikitin,Diaz
GLuongo,Nabokov,Bernier,Bobrovsky
IR
FGranlund,Yakupov,K.Palmieri,Jarnkrok,Khokhlachev,H ertl,Girgensons,Paajarvi,Beach,Beck,Eakin,Ashton,R undblad,Gormley,Spurgeon,Morrow,Schmaltz,Campbell

take that deal for your insurance, but don't forget Leshoure could take that job

also, make sure you have a plan, as it sounds like you are kind of in limbo

your rb's are terrible despite what others are saying

i'd wait for a team to get into injury trouble and try and get a top 5 guy at Wr/RB/Qb and go from there. if you can get 2. start the rebuild with true studs and some top picks as you flail along again.

its ok to not have a good team, but its not ok to always have a bad team. start the rebuild. you have ryan and it looks like he may be a solid keeper. Best and Spiller are still 2 guys who have shown nothing over a whole season. Neither can be slotted as an RB1.

also how may teams in this league?
go get some studs and pay for them once the stud is injured and rebuild for next year.

__________________
16TeamPtsLeague3ptShutoutPlay9F4D2G 18ManRoster30ManRookieList(2yearsorLess)8Keepers-Malkin,Kopitar,Eberle,Subban,JBernier,Rask,Karlsso n,Radulov,Keith,Streit,Perreault,McBain
Rook:Bachman,Schroeder,Petersson,Rynass,Stalock,Om ark