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  #21  
Old 04-20-2012, 09:27 PM
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Originally Posted by blayze View Post
It's all moot anyway, cause:

2) Staal will never play a full healthy season
From 2006-2010 Staal played in every game except 1. The past two seasons injuries were mostly a string of bad luck due to the preexisting injury he had getting infected a couple of times. I don't know why you would make an assumption such as this based on his past injury history.
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  #22  
Old 04-20-2012, 09:39 PM
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Originally Posted by lucifer316 View Post
the ice time i listed that you say i cant look at i absolutely can

when someone argues that with a healthy crosby and healthy malkin staal doesnt get top 6 ice time they are perpetuating a myth that has zero basis in fact which the ice time number show

as for all of those numbers they they arent guaranteed to predict the future

as of right now staal is the leading penguin in the playoffs

yes he plays a defensive role that doesnt mean he cant score as evidenced by an increase in production even though his pp time was cut by a minute this season

i think 70 when healthy is a good number given his role on this team and its make up

but as i said with better linemates and better ice time he has the potential for a ppg

but saying that i dont think he is due for a breakout because if his situation doesnt change thats only marginally better than his ppg production this season meaning if things dont change he has already broken out
I'm not saying you can't "look" at the ice-time, I'm saying you can't use that as a main reason for forming your argument... Just because Staal averages the 3rd highest ice-time, doesn't mean he'll get the 3rd highest point totals... Also what I'm arguing is that because the Pens have had so many injuries to Crosby/Malkin the last couple of years, those ice-time numbers have been inflated. When Crosby/Malkin are both healthy, Staal won't average the same amount of ice-time as he does when Crosby/Malkin is out. He also has less scoring impact when both Crosby and Malkin are healthy as opposed to when one of them is out of the line up.

They don't guarantee the future, but it does give you a good indication as to what's the most logical explanation/outcome...

Yes he is leading the Pens in the playoffs, but they've also played just 1 team as well, the Flyers have tried to clamp down on Crosby/Malkin's lines, which has enabled Staal to face a lower quality of competition. They are also averaging a whopping 5.5 goals per game, that doesn't happen over a course of a full 82-game season.

So you can't just use playoff numbers and assume that they'll continue over a course the regular season.
1) They play the same team over the course of a series...
2) Regular season is 82-games not 7...
3) They won't face 4.94 GAA .844 SP goalie for 82 games a season...
4) Regular season occurs over the period of 6 months, not 2 weeks in which this series has occurred...

This is the trap that all poolies always fall into. The problem is POINT SCARCITY repeat after me. POINT SCARCITY! If Staal picks up 70, then it has to be taken from somewhere else, does Crosby drop back down to 80 then? Neal back down to 65, Letang down to 40? At the end of the day, Crosby and Malkin can't get 120 each and have Staal get 70 and Neal get 80... It just doesn't work that way.

Staal can certainly tally 70 points, but that will only happen if either Crosby or Malkin is out for a long period of time . If Malkin and Crosby is healthy, there will be no way that Staal tallies 70!
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  #23  
Old 04-20-2012, 09:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Shoeless View Post
How do you know that?
Staal is a shutdown centre. It doesn't mean he's not good offensively (clearly he is) - the shutdown role is simply his best use. He's big, strong and agile, and easily over powers people. That is a very rare combination of attributes which makes him one of the best in the league at what he does. If he combined those attributes with the hands of a Getzlaf, then maybe his role would be different, but as I mentioned, I don't think he has that level of offensive potential. He plays against the opposing top line in EVERY game (which takes up a ton of energy), and he also spends time on the PK. Reporters ask Bylsma all the time and that is always his answer.

Staal will never have more offensive opportunity than he has had during the last 2 seasons with Crosby missing as much time as he has. Staal continues to get virtually zero powerplay time, even with Crosby out, and he will always get the sloppy seconds in terms of linemates because his main job is not an offensive role, so having skilled wingers is less important. This will only get worse with Crosby back, but the point is even when Crosby has been out, his offensive opportunity has been limited.

As for the injury comment, that was more tongue-in-cheek (I like to be bold for effect), although I'd personally feel very comfortable making that bet. He's injured his hand, his foot and his knee over the last 2 seasons... call it a hunch. You can say the same about Taylor Hall's "freak" injuries, and I'd also feel just as comfortable predicting that he also will never play a full season. Nothing scientific there, just a bold hunch.
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Last edited by blayze; 04-20-2012 at 09:46 PM.
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  #24  
Old 04-20-2012, 09:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Gotlaid View Post
Staal can certainly tally 70 points, but that will only happen if either Crosby or Malkin is out for a long period of time .
You mean kind of like this season and last season?
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  #25  
Old 04-20-2012, 09:53 PM
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I'm not saying you can't "look" at the ice-time, I'm saying you can't use that as a main reason for forming your argument... Just because Staal averages the 3rd highest ice-time, doesn't mean he'll get the 3rd highest point totals...
i never used it as a reason for my argument main or not

again i was dispelling the myth that jordan staal gets 3rd line ice time because he is the 3rd center on the team

nowhere in any of my arguments did i say that he would get his points because he gets the 3rd highest ice time much less that he would be 3rd in points based on that

im sorry but perhaps you should take the time to read the posts before you make such ridiculous accusations about what someone is saying

you grabbed and quoted a post and never bothered to see what i was responding to then you just made up and argument that i never even made
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  #26  
Old 04-20-2012, 09:54 PM
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Originally Posted by lucifer316 View Post
when someone argues that with a healthy crosby and healthy malkin staal doesnt get top 6 ice time they are perpetuating a myth that has zero basis in fact which the ice time number show
These are the numbers according to FrozenPool.

Start of year - Nov. 20 (Without Crosby): 20:29 overall and 2:59 on the PP
Nov 21 - Dec 5 (With Crosby): 20:03 and 1:06
Dec 6 - Mar 14 (Without Crosby): 20:07 and 1:59
Mar 15 - Apr 18 (With Crosby): 19:25 and 1:15

So I would argue the numbers do show that his offensive role is reduced when both Crosby/Malkin is in the line up. His overall ice-time remains fairly constant because of the SH/ES time that he plays, but the PP is what fluctuates with Crosby/Malkin in/out of the line up.

Another big area is the SOG.

Start of year - Nov. 20 (Without Crosby): 41 in 18 (2.28)
Nov 21 - Dec 5 (With Crosby): 14 in 8 (1.75)
Dec 6 - Mar 14 (Without Crosby): 59 in 22 (2.68)
Mar 15 - Apr 18 (With Crosby): 35 in 14 (2.5)

With Crosby (2.23 SOG per game), without Crosby (2.5 SOG per game)...
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Old 04-20-2012, 09:55 PM
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As for the injury comment, that was more tongue-in-cheek (I like to be bold for effect), although I'd personally feel very comfortable making that bet. He's injured his hand, his foot and his knee over the last 2 seasons... call it a hunch. You can say the same about Taylor Hall's "freak" injuries, and I'd also feel just as comfortable predicting that he also will never play a full season. Nothing scientific there, just a bold hunch.
if you are going to assume his injuries as automatic dont you need to do the same for crosby and malkin
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Old 04-20-2012, 09:56 PM
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You mean kind of like this season and last season?
Yes... and that's if everything else clicks too, like he stays healthy, and averages 20+ mins a game, plus 3+ on the PP and averages 2.5+ SOG per game.

He'll need a lot to go right before he's a safe 70+ point option...
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Old 04-20-2012, 09:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Gotlaid View Post
These are the numbers according to FrozenPool.

Start of year - Nov. 20 (Without Crosby): 20:29 overall and 2:59 on the PP
Nov 21 - Dec 5 (With Crosby): 20:03 and 1:06
Dec 6 - Mar 14 (Without Crosby): 20:07 and 1:59
Mar 15 - Apr 18 (With Crosby): 19:25 and 1:15

So I would argue the numbers do show that his offensive role is reduced when both Crosby/Malkin is in the line up. His overall ice-time remains fairly constant because of the SH/ES time that he plays, but the PP is what fluctuates with Crosby/Malkin in/out of the line up.

Another big area is the SOG.

Start of year - Nov. 20 (Without Crosby): 41 in 18 (2.28)
Nov 21 - Dec 5 (With Crosby): 14 in 8 (1.75)
Dec 6 - Mar 14 (Without Crosby): 59 in 22 (2.68)
Mar 15 - Apr 18 (With Crosby): 35 in 14 (2.5)

With Crosby (2.23 SOG per game), without Crosby (2.5 SOG per game)...
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  #30  
Old 04-20-2012, 10:01 PM
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Originally Posted by lucifer316 View Post
staal already gets the ice time of a top 6 forward hell on that team he gets the ice time of a top 3 forward and has for 4 seasons now

he put up that 66 point pace with kinda suspect linemates and i agree that 70 isnt out of the realm of possibility for him

what is intriguing about staal is what happens if he ever given real linemates could he push ppg not to mention this season where he got that 66 point pace he saw his pp time reduced by 1 min per game from last season

but dont ever worry about staal not getting ice time last two seasons he was 2nd on the team in atoi and es atoi and the two prior to that he was 3rd in both of those

i think 70 is a lock if he is healthy next year and i think the right linemates and back to 3 min on the pp again and he might break 85
Isn't this what you're arguing? that because he gets ice-time of a top 3 forward that's why he'll be a 70 point threat?

What I'm questioning you on is that ice-time doesn't not 100% correlate with point production...
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