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  #11  
Old 04-20-2012, 08:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
J.Staal had 50pts in 62games... that's 66pts if he played 82games.

A small part of me thinks that Pittsburgh could do very well if they stacked their top 6.
And even-though Kunitz - Malkin - Neal was dynamite all year... they still need a more balanced attack with wingers for Sid.
Crosby has always exhibited good chemistry with Kunitz - so I assume they'll go back to that to start '12-'13.

2012-2013
Kunitz-Crosby-xxxxx
xxxxx-Malkin-Neal

But yet... part of me still thinks the Penguins might be better suited to get J.Staal into the top 6. The only way I see that happening is by shifting Malkin (not Crosby). And that would be:

Kunitz-Crosby-xxxxx
Malkin-Staal-Neal

I think Malkin can be every bit as good a player on the wing as he is at center.
J.Staal & Crosby are both better suited (overall) as two-way centers.

In Summary:
Jordan Staal, 3rd line center = 50pts
Jordan Staal, 2nd line center = 60-70pts
One thing that you also need to take into account is that the 50 points in 62 games was with Crosby out of the line up too, so I think that opened up a bit of scoring for Staal to pick up some extra points. (Basically Staal filled in the spot and took over the points that Crosby would have scored)

With Crosby in the line up, Staal's role kinda gets relegated to more of a defensive one.

So I don't think it's a fair statement to say that he's more than a 60+ pointer with Crosby in the line up... (the question of point scarcity comes into mind)

Stats from this year,

Staal with Crosby in line up 14 in 22 (0.64) along with 47 SOG (2.14).
Staal without Crosby in line up 36 in 40 (0.9) along with 102 SOG (2.55).

At the end of the day, you can't have Crosby and Malkin reel off 100 point seasons, and have Neal get 80+ and get Staal 65+ and get Kunitz 60+ and Letang 50+, it's just doesn't happen that way, it's not NHL 12.
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  #12  
Old 04-20-2012, 08:40 PM
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Originally Posted by blayze View Post
J. Staal is never going to "break out"... I always find it puzzling when people talk about him like he's suddenly going to drop 70-80 points

He will always be a 45-55 point guy on the Pens... his role is clearly defined on that team, so the opportunity will never be there, even when Crosby is out

And to be honest even though I think Staal is one of the sickest 2 way players in the game (and one of the most clutch), I don't think he has the offensive talent to be a 70-80 point guy even if he had the opportunity.
I have to politely disagree. Although I am not sure he will ever get there, Staal has a great shot when the puck is properly put in his wheelhouse, and has good vision as well. I have always felt he has the upside of 80, but think he needs either better linesmates and/or to not be matched against top lines to get there. However, I don't think either of those things will happen, at least with how their forward corps is structured now.
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  #13  
Old 04-20-2012, 08:41 PM
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Food for thought, Jordan Staal has 36pts in his last 31 games.
Playing with tyler kennedy and dupuis...


38 in 31.5......

Last edited by JiminyCrickets!; 04-20-2012 at 08:52 PM.
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Old 04-20-2012, 08:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JiminyCrickets! View Post
Food for thought, Jordan Staal has 36pts in his last 31 games.
Playing with tyler kennedy and dupuis...


38 in 31.5......
So does Dupuis... I guess we should pencil him in for 70-80 next year as well
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  #15  
Old 04-20-2012, 08:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Ross The Boss Palmer View Post
I have to politely disagree. Although I am not sure he will ever get there, Staal has a great shot when the puck is properly put in his wheelhouse, and has good vision as well. I have always felt he has the upside of 80, but think he needs either better linesmates and/or to not be matched against top lines to get there. However, I don't think either of those things will happen, at least with how their forward corps is structure now.
Don't get me wrong, Staal's no slouch offensively... he does have a lethal shot, but even if given the opportunity, I don't see him as having the tools to get to the 80 upside you have set for him... Neal barely hit 80 this season playing with Malkin.

It's all moot anyway, cause:
1) Staal will never have the opportunity given his role as a 2 way player and the Penguins depth
2) Staal will never play a full healthy season
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  #16  
Old 04-20-2012, 09:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lucifer316 View Post
lets try this one more time

the last 2 seasons staal has been second on the team in icetime among forwards the 2 seasons prior to that he was 3rd on the team in ice time among forwards

now the first season of that 4 season span 77 82 and 82 were the games crosby malkin and staal played and staal was 3rd among forwards in ice time so when healthy staal still was in the top 3 on that team in ice time center or not
I don't think you can just look purely at ice-time, because Staal also plays a very defensive role with the team as well... Just cause he gets the 3rd highest amount of ice-time on the team doesn't mean that it's going to translate into points... Just cause he's on the PP with Crosby/Malkin doesn't mean he's going to get points... I would also argue that with Crosby/Malkin out with serious injuries the last couple of seasons, Staal was utilized as the replacement to "fill the gap", If Crosby and Malkin were healthy, the ice-time drops...

If you look at it completely from a numbers perspective, if on the PP it's Crosby/Malkin/Neal/Staal/Letang well every PP goal scored there's only 3 points awarded, if you break it down the majority of the time it's going to go to Crosby/Malkin, so if those 2 juggernaut picks up PPP in 50% of the time, then that leaves little for everyone else despite garnering the same amount of ice-time as Crosby and Malkin...

What you have to do is break it down to %age of team points IMO.

Crosby
05-06: 102 of 676 (15.1%)
06-07: 120 of 735 (16.3%)
07-08: 72 of 667 (10.8%) *53 games
08-09: 103 of 706 (14.6%)
09-10: 109 of 682 (16.0%)
10-11: 66 of 618 (10.7%) *41 games
11-12: 37 of 746 (5.0%) *22 games

So generally speaking a healthy Crosby accumulates roughly 15-16% of the Pens points.

Malkin
06-07: 85 of 735 (11.6%)
07-08: 106 of 667 (15.9%)
08-09: 113 of 706 (16.0%)
09-10: 77 of 682 (11.3%) *67 games
10-11: 37 of 618 (6.0%) *43 games
11-12: 109 of 746 (14.6%)

A healthy Malkin accumulates roughly 14-16% of the Pens points.

Staal
06-07: 45 of 735 (6.1%)
07-08: 28 of 667 (4.2%)
08-09: 49 of 706 (6.9%)
09-10: 49 of 682 (7.2%)
10-11: 30 of 618 (4.9%) *42 games
11-12: 50 of 746 (5.4%) *62 games

a healthy Staal accumulates roughly 6% of the Pens points.

That's the main problem is that Crosby and Malkin pretty much tally up 30% of the team's points, which leaves very little for everyone else. Now if you consider the competition as well, Neal, Kunitz, Letang, Kennedy, Cooke, Tangradi, Dupuis... there's not a lot to go spread to Staal...

In order for Staal to get 70 points at a rate of 6% of the team's production, the Pens would need to score 1167 points as a team (to put it into perspective they scored 746 this season while averaging a league-high 3.33 goals per game) and that's with Crosby taking up just 5% of the pie. If he gets back up to 15-16%, how is that even numerically going to be possible? In order for them to tally 1167 points, they'd need to average 5.21 goals per game.

Call me a pessimist but that ain't happening...
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Last edited by Maaaasquito; 04-20-2012 at 09:11 PM.
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  #17  
Old 04-20-2012, 09:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blayze View Post
It's all moot anyway, cause:
1) Staal will never have the opportunity given his role as a 2 way player and the Penguins depth
2) Staal will never play a full healthy season
How do you know that?
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  #18  
Old 04-20-2012, 09:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JiminyCrickets! View Post
Food for thought, Jordan Staal has 36pts in his last 31 games.
Playing with tyler kennedy and dupuis...


38 in 31.5......
They're also averaging 4.41 goals per game as well, which won't happen during the season...
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Old 04-20-2012, 09:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blayze View Post
2) Staal will never play a full healthy season

2006-81gp
2007-82gp
2008-82gp
2009-82gp
2010-42gp
2011-62gp.

Where'd you buy your crystal ball? and what do you know that we don't?
Factoring in his last 2 seasons, he's cleary trending upward.
Will he hit 80points next year? probably not. Could he? absolutely
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Old 04-20-2012, 09:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Gotlaid View Post
I don't think you can just look purely at ice-time, because Staal also plays a very defensive role with the team as well... Just cause he gets the 3rd highest amount of ice-time on the team doesn't mean that it's going to translate into points... Just cause he's on the PP with Crosby/Malkin doesn't mean he's going to get points...

If you look at it completely from a numbers perspective, if on the PP it's Crosby/Malkin/Neal/Staal/Letang well every PP goal scored there's only 3 points awarded, if you break it down the majority of the time it's going to go to Crosby/Malkin, so if those 2 juggernaut picks up PPP in 50% of the time, then that leaves little for everyone else despite garnering the same amount of ice-time as Crosby and Malkin...

What you have to do is break it down to %age of team points IMO.

Crosby
05-06: 102 of 676 (15.1%)
06-07: 120 of 735 (16.3%)
07-08: 72 of 667 (10.8%) *53 games
08-09: 103 of 706 (14.6%)
09-10: 109 of 682 (16.0%)
10-11: 66 of 618 (10.7%) *41 games
11-12: 37 of 746 (5.0%) *22 games

So generally speaking a healthy Crosby accumulates roughly 15-16% of the Pens points.

Malkin
06-07: 85 of 735 (11.6%)
07-08: 106 of 667 (15.9%)
08-09: 113 of 706 (16.0%)
09-10: 77 of 682 (11.3%) *67 games
10-11: 37 of 618 (6.0%) *43 games
11-12: 109 of 746 (14.6%)

A healthy Malkin accumulates roughly 14-16% of the Pens points.

Staal
06-07: 45 of 735 (6.1%)
07-08: 28 of 667 (4.2%)
08-09: 49 of 706 (6.9%)
09-10: 49 of 682 (7.2%)
10-11: 30 of 618 (4.9%) *42 games
11-12: 50 of 746 (5.4%) *62 games

a healthy Staal accumulates roughly 6% of the Pens points.

That's the main problem is that Crosby and Malkin pretty much tally up 30% of the team's points, which leaves very little for everyone else. Now if you consider the competition as well, Neal, Kunitz, Letang, Kennedy, Cooke, Tangradi, Dupuis... there's not a lot to go spread to Staal...

In order for Staal to get 70 points at a rate of 6% of the team's production, the Pens would need to score 1167 points as a team (to put it into perspective they scored 746 this season while averaging a league-high 3.33 goals per game) and that's with Crosby taking up just 5% of the pie. If he gets back up to 15-16%, how is that even numerically going to be possible? In order for them to tally 1167 points, they'd need to average 5.21 goals per game.

Call me a pessimist but that ain't happening...
the ice time i listed that you say i cant look at i absolutely can

when someone argues that with a healthy crosby and healthy malkin staal doesnt get top 6 ice time they are perpetuating a myth that has zero basis in fact which the ice time number show

as for all of those numbers they they arent guaranteed to predict the future

as of right now staal is the leading penguin in the playoffs

yes he plays a defensive role that doesnt mean he cant score as evidenced by an increase in production even though his pp time was cut by a minute this season

i think 70 when healthy is a good number given his role on this team and its make up

but as i said with better linemates and better ice time he has the potential for a ppg

but saying that i dont think he is due for a breakout because if his situation doesnt change thats only marginally better than his ppg production this season meaning if things dont change he has already broken out
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