I have a very very close situation to you in my league.
My league has 6 keepers, 10 teams, 18 goalies kept this past offseason.
I am also keeping Kane, Karlsson and Luongo, which I'd keep surely in your league as well.
I am very familiar with your league setup minus the PIMS so I'd say listen up here.

Surprisingly the similarities don't end there, though.
I had Schneider and Smith until the deadline where I moved the two goaltenders for 2nd rounders each and skater upgrades for my winning playoff run. The team who's keeping Smith brought him in as one of his 2 keeper goalies (over Backstrom), and the team who traded for Schneider actually traded Ward to fit him in as one of his keepers (somewhat questionable, with the risk involved).
You fortunately have the benefit of seeing how the offseason goes, so that's big for you in seeing what happens with Schneider.
I was able to trade those two goalies only because I already had Luongo / Rinne pretty well locked in as my keeper goalies and was getting Nabokov to fill the gap in the trade for Schneider.

Right now I don't know what the going rate for Smith is in your league so I can't really tell you if it's worth acquiring him. I wouldn't bet on him repeating this year's stats, but he fits in as a good 2nd goalie who could surprise next year behind Luongo in your keeper. I'd put a lot of faith in Phoenix's system and he should be able to rebound with another good but reduced year.

I would say with certainty don't keep Yandle, Keith or Hartnell (though I'm not totally sure of Hartnell's worth where I don't have PIMs anymore). But with Karlsson on the back end, I think you're set when it comes to defense on your keeper list.

If you're allowed to make trades and wait on keepers until next September, wait it out and see what happens with Schneider before moving value for Smith and re-evaluate it then. You might have a team like the one in my league who's really high on him. It's a good insurance bet too not knowing what's gonna happen between Luongo and Schneider this offseason for Vancouver.

Feel free to PM me as time passes or if you get a good offer for Smith.

__________________
Year III - 10 teams - 6 keepers
G, A, PTS, +/-, PPP, SHP, GWG /// W, SV%, GAA, SO

LW: Duchene, E. Kane, Laad
C: Kopitar, Thornton, O'Rielly
RW: P. Kane, Wheeler, Tarasenko
D: Pietrangelo, OEL, Burns, J. Carlson, Wisniewski
UTL: ______
G: Price, Rinne
IR: Karlsson
BN: Luongo, Saad, Roy, Huberdeau, Setoguchi, Turris

Yes, Smith-in-Phoenix is the real deal.

I'd disagree though that Smith is excelling due to either the system or confidence.

Very often, better goalie performances correlate to better defenses.
Let's look at the top six defensive teams (by Shots On Goal Against, SOGA) this year:

1. STL 26.7 SOGA/game. (Halak/Elliott = superb this year)
2. NJ 26.8 SOGA/game.
3. DET 27.0 SOGA/game. (Howard = was on pace for 50W before injury)
4. PIT 27.4 SOGA/game. (Fleury = 2nd in W, possible Vezina candidate)
5. LA 27.4 SOGA/game. (Quick = Possible Vezina candidate)
6. NYR 27.8 SOGA/game. (Lundqvist = Likely Vezina winner)
...
...
...
21. VAN 30.8 SOGA/game.
...
...
28. PHX 31.6 SOGA/game.
29. OTT 32.0 SOGA/game.
30. CAR 32.4 SOGA/game.

Only five teams in the NHL this year had goaltending that posted SV% of .920 or better.
They are bolded above. Three in the top six of SOGA is not surprising. Less shots = Opportunity for Better Stats.

The Reason PHX goaltenders succeed = No pressure.
Nobody cares.

I don't buy the system or confidence arguments.
If the team is in Phoenix, invest in Smith.
If the team moves to Canada, you are going to see the pressure gobble him up.

With a team that should have a shot at winning next year, I'd definitely go with the proven Smith over the prospect Schneider.

With four of your cats to goalies, going into the draft withtwo of the top 15 goalies will be a great advantage. With Shneider's buzz and Hartnell's great year, could you get Smith without Datsyuk? That would still leave you with too many keepers, but maybe Datsyuk + Yandle Could get you an elite winger. I'd like to see you upgrade your RW from Kane with some sort of package if possible. Perry might be a buy-low target. Martin St. Louis might might be nice, too, with your league's weight on power play production. I wouldn't worry too much about his age as it looks to me like your team could be very competitive next year. As it is, I don't see Datsyuk as a keeper on your team, so I hope you didn't pay too much for him.

Of course, the ideal would be to put together a large package of your excellent bubble players to get a Stamkos or Malkin, but in a partial keeper that's probably a pipe dream.

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H2H 10 GMs Keeper: keep up to 4 at cost of draft pick (round in red) G, A,+/-,PIM,SOG,PPP; Wins,GAA,Sv% Start 2C 2R 2L 1 Util 4D 2G, weekly starts
C: Tomáš Plecanec (10), Jonathan Huberdeau (11)
LW: Patrik Eliáš (14), Pascal Dupuis (10) Иlлья Kovalchuk (1), Brandon Saad (10)
RW: Jarome Iginla (3), Phil Kessel (2) Jakub Voráček (9)
Util:
D:Ryan Suter (7), Mike Green (4), Brent Burns (10), Mark Streit, Justin Schultz (12)
G:Craig Anderson (6), Дeвaн Dubnyk (17) Cepгeй Bobrovsky (9), Niklas Bäckström (8)

This is exactly why you wait b4 deciding.

I am a big believe in Smith (traded Hartnell for him in a late round only keeper league). Phoenix does let up some shots but the majority of the shots they let up are from the outside (from the few games I can actually watch them) that is a recipe for good SV%. While I don't think his numbers will be as good next year he will still be a top 10 goalie IMO.

__________________
2010-2011 League Champion - ROTO
2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2,G | G, A, PPP, +/-, PIM, BS, W, GAA, SV%
C: Tavares, Thornton
LW: Benn, Hall
RW: Semin, Sharp
D: Edler, Carlson, OEL, Hedman
G: Smith, Miller, Fasth, Markstrom, Bernier
B: Wheeler, Weisniewski
H2H Keeper League [5F, 2D, 1G]
2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D,1 Ult, 1 G -H2H Daily Start - G, A, +/-, Hits, BS, PPP, SHP - W, SV, GAA, SO
C:RNH, Ribeiro, Backes, Kesler
LW: Parise, Landeskog, E. Kane
RW: Ryan, Yakupov, Clarkson
D: OEL, Keith, Boyle, Wisniewski, Smid, Georges
G: Schneider, Varlamov, Nabokov, Bishop
IR: Wisniewski

Not for the exact same reasons...but I have concerns too. What I wonder is that if the coach goes and PHX's system changes, if he loses his new goalie coach, or if he goes to another team, does he continue to be a stellar goalie. Any of these things are possible. He only signed a 2 year deal, so if another team affers him big money, does he go. Hopefully he's smart enough to know what type of team he fits best with, but you never know.

In no one worried about those things? Seems to be overwhelming belief in him remaining a top goalie for years to come.

__________________
Team 1
10 Team H2H (Keep 12)
Ovie, Malkin, D Sedin, Parise, Tavares, Hall, E Kane, Seguin, Eberle
Green
Rask, Lundy
G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG
W, GAA, SV%, SHO

He is the real deal, just needs to carry everything he did this year into future seasons. He has a great goalie coach to work with and plays for a team that always defends well.

__________________
macv@dobberbaseball.com
DobberBaseball Columnist- http://baseball.dobbersports.com/ind...layout=default
Detroit Red Wings coverage
Twitter- @MacVincent1

That's my point though. The reason you say make him good go away if he plays elsewhere. next season is the last season on his contract. I think it is Tippett's last year as well.

The question is...is Smith good enough to be good when not in one of the most defensive systems in the league and with a different goalie coach?

__________________
Team 1
10 Team H2H (Keep 12)
Ovie, Malkin, D Sedin, Parise, Tavares, Hall, E Kane, Seguin, Eberle
Green
Rask, Lundy
G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG
W, GAA, SV%, SHO

sort of...they have a great coach who has been able to get them to buy into his system but its not an inherently talented defensive team, they have merely adapted well and taken a 'bend but not break' approach. Not saying that can't be successful with that but the reality of it is that the Yotes were behind only the Sens and the Canes this season in terms of how many SOG they gave up. You never wanna see your starting goalie getting hammered with 31-32 shots a game, that starts to wear you out eventually

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Thats me on the street with a violin under my chin, playing with a grin, singing gibberish.





P=1 DPts=1.2 +/-=.32 PIM=.08 PPP=.4 SHP=.6 S=.015 Blk=.2 Hit=.08
W=2 OTL=.8 GA=-.64 SV=.08 SO=3

Pro (23 keep 17)
C- Filppula,Turris,Stastny,Backstrom
D-Boyle,MDZ,Karlsson,Robidas,Goligoski,Schenn,Seiden berg
G-Anderson,Hiller,Rinne
LW-Malone,Parise,Rolston,Eriksson,Ruutu
RW-Alfredsson,Callahan,Setoguchi,Brown,Ryder,Vrbata

Farm (9 keep all, max 200 GP, 100 Goalies)
Colborne,Leblanc,Loktionov,Perreault,Tangradi,Blum ,Poulin,Markstrom

I disagree with that, I think Smith just lost confidence in himself after the way he was handled in Tampa. This guy clearly believes in his abilities now, he'd play well anywhere. Playing for a club like Phoenix will help his numbers, but he's discovered how good he can be. There are so many players with untapped potential that never reach it, he's heading right into his prime IMO.

__________________
macv@dobberbaseball.com
DobberBaseball Columnist- http://baseball.dobbersports.com/ind...layout=default
Detroit Red Wings coverage
Twitter- @MacVincent1