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Old 08-24-2011, 02:54 PM
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Default Fantasy Football Keeper Question: Do I keep Drew Brees?

Hey gents,

Thought I'd pick the brain of those of you who are into fantasy football.

I'm going into the 2nd year of a PPR Keeper Football League with a bunch of my buddies. It's a 12-team league and each team keeps 2 players per year at any position.

My current two keepers are Drew Brees + Calvin Johnson.

Last year I tried for the win and traded my 1st round pick away. Therefore, with no 1st round pick and no RB as my keeper I'm thinking of not keeping Brees and keeping Matt Forte or Ahmad Bradshaw instead. What would you guys do - stick with Brees or keep one of my RB's instead? Running back is just such a shallow position so I'm worried that if I don't keep one, plus the fact that I don't have a 1st round pick to draft one, that's really going to hurt me as by the time my pick (16th overall) comes in the 2nd round it will be very slim pickings whereas I could land a decent QB like Schaub or Matt Ryan with a mid-round pick. I'm big on Calvin's upside so dropping him I don't see as an option.

To give you an idea of what players are being kept here is the list..

Team A: Vick and AP
Team B: Brady and MJD
Team C: Rodgers and V.Jax
Team D: Romo and Mendenhall
Team E: Brees and Calvin Johnson
Team F: McFadden and McCoy
Team G: Foster and Andre Johnson
Team H: Chris Johnson and Jamal Charles
Team I: Wes Welker and Greg Jennings
Team J: Turner and Fitzgerald
Team K: Gore and White
Team L: Rice and DeSean Jackson


So what do you guys think - stick with Brees or keep Forte or Bradshaw instead?
Cheers
__________________
Roster:
C - Stamkos, Bergeron, M.Koivu, Stepan
W - Malkin(C/W), Benn(C/W), Backes(C/W), Iginla, Vanek, Voracek, J.Staal(C/W), Hemsky, Saad
D - Yandle, Goligoski
G - Lundqvist, Smith, Dubnyk, Khudobin
IR - Karlsson, Martin

12 teams h-to-h partial keeper league. Daily line-up changes.
End of the year u keep 1C, 2W, 2D, 1G
Categories: G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, FW, W, GAA, SV%, SHO
Lineup: 2C, 4W, 4D, 2G, 5Bench, 2IR
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  #2  
Old 08-24-2011, 03:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketRockets05 View Post
Hey gents,

Thought I'd pick the brain of those of you who are into fantasy football.

I'm going into the 2nd year of a PPR Keeper Football League with a bunch of my buddies. It's a 12-team league and each team keeps 2 players per year at any position.

My current two keepers are Drew Brees + Calvin Johnson.

Last year I tried for the win and traded my 1st round pick away. Therefore, with no 1st round pick and no RB as my keeper I'm thinking of not keeping Brees and keeping Matt Forte or Ahmad Bradshaw instead. What would you guys do - stick with Brees or keep one of my RB's instead? Running back is just such a shallow position so I'm worried that if I don't keep one, plus the fact that I don't have a 1st round pick to draft one, that's really going to hurt me as by the time my pick (16th overall) comes in the 2nd round it will be very slim pickings whereas I could land a decent QB like Schaub or Matt Ryan with a mid-round pick. I'm big on Calvin's upside so dropping him I don't see as an option.

To give you an idea of what players are being kept here is the list..

Team A: Vick and AP
Team B: Brady and MJD
Team C: Rodgers and V.Jax
Team D: Romo and Mendenhall
Team E: Brees and Calvin Johnson
Team F: McFadden and McCoy
Team G: Foster and Andre Johnson
Team H: Chris Johnson and Jamal Charles
Team I: Wes Welker and Greg Jennings
Team J: Turner and Fitzgerald
Team K: Gore and White
Team L: Rice and DeSean Jackson


So what do you guys think - stick with Brees or keep Forte or Bradshaw instead?
Cheers
I like to think I know my football so here it goes. Brees wasn't himself last year at all but I expect a huge year and he's easily a top five team. Drew Brees and Calvin Johnson, who is for my money the best young Wide Receiver in the NFL. Forte and Bradshaw are good, but you always go with the best players when deciding keepers. I've only played FF for two years or so but I follow the NFL during the season.
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Old 08-24-2011, 03:23 PM
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Without a 1st round pick you are one quality player behind everybody else come round 2.
This makes it almost impossible to win your league.

You need a miracle.

Here's your miracle:
1. Cut Drew Brees (NO), keep Matt Forte (CHI). Forte catches a good number of balls out of the backfield and I'm not sold on CHI's WRs. Forte has not missed a game in three seasons. He's a very durable back. A 3rd season between Cutler & Forte will have good chemistry. You really need two pass-catching RBs... so you need to start with 1.
http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/tools/p...QDAAAAAQ%3D%3D

2. Try to draft Matthew Stafford (DET). Stafford is HUGE risk... but if you are counting on Daniel Sedin (C.Johnson) you might as well draft Henrik (Stafford). Put your eggs in the Detroit Lions basket. If they go crazy, you may have a shot at winning your league.

3. Spend your Round 2 pick on another RB... knowing you are going after Stafford later.


Overall - Brees is the best keeper... but he's not part of the miracle that you will need to have a chance to win your league this year.
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Old 08-24-2011, 03:28 PM
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what's football? Do you mean soccer or that American game with the oval shaped ball?



ok...I'll get out of here now and leave you guys to it. I just couldn't resist admitting my ignorance of the game. I follow almost every sport but football. For some reason I've never been able to get into it. Far too many players and positions to follow and I see it as a dark path that once I start down it I won't be able to turn around.
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10 team league, multi-cat, full keeper.

Forwards: J. Toews, J. Tavares, J. Eberle, J. Neal, A. Kopitar, T. Seguin, E. Kane, M. Duchene, J. Benn, M. Ryder, D. Brown, B. Marchand

Defense: A. Pietrangelo, K. Shattenkirk, A. Goligoski, PK Subban, J. Carlson, J. Spurgeon

Goalies: M. Smith, A. Niemi

Bench: R. Clowe, B. Dubinsky, M. Calvert, P. Mueller, D. Clarkson, M. Carle, M. Niskanen, P. Wiercioch, J. Halak, A. Lindback
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Old 08-24-2011, 03:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaDawg View Post
what's football? Do you mean soccer or that American game with the oval shaped ball?



ok...I'll get out of here now and leave you guys to it. I just couldn't resist admitting my ignorance of the game. I follow almost every sport but football. For some reason I've never been able to get into it. Far too many players and positions to follow and I see it as a dark path that once I start down it I won't be able to turn around.
Pretty much the only sports I follow are hockey, football (NFL not soccer) and baseball. I have no interest in following sports like basketball, soccer and golf.
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Old 08-24-2011, 03:38 PM
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Seadawg - you need to join the DobberHockey fantasy football pool and AutoDraft a team.
Everybody likes knowing they won't finish last. You can be the "girl in the pool" and we can all feel shame when you beat us.

It'll be fun... (as I dangle a piece of candy from my darkly-tinted van)
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Old 08-24-2011, 04:08 PM
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Thanks for the feedback everyone!

Quote:
Originally Posted by dmvincent View Post
I like to think I know my football so here it goes. Brees wasn't himself last year at all but I expect a huge year and he's easily a top five team. Drew Brees and Calvin Johnson, who is for my money the best young Wide Receiver in the NFL. Forte and Bradshaw are good, but you always go with the best players when deciding keepers. I've only played FF for two years or so but I follow the NFL during the season.
Thanks! I love Calvin too. I'm a little worried about the fact Coulston has a bum knee and that NO lost Reggie Bush. I just felt he added such a big dimension to that offense. Only thing that still worries me here is the fact I'll be far behind the 8-ball at the RB position which is such a crucial position. (note: my league starts: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1Flex, 1TE)


Quote:
Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
Without a 1st round pick you are one quality player behind everybody else come round 2.
This makes it almost impossible to win your league.

You need a miracle.

Here's your miracle:
1. Cut Drew Brees (NO), keep Matt Forte (CHI). Forte catches a good number of balls out of the backfield and I'm not sold on CHI's WRs. Forte has not missed a game in three seasons. He's a very durable back. A 3rd season between Cutler & Forte will have good chemistry. You really need two pass-catching RBs... so you need to start with 1.
http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/tools/p...QDAAAAAQ%3D%3D

2. Try to draft Matthew Stafford (DET). Stafford is HUGE risk... but if you are counting on Daniel Sedin (C.Johnson) you might as well draft Henrik (Stafford). Put your eggs in the Detroit Lions basket. If they go crazy, you may have a shot at winning your league.

3. Spend your Round 2 pick on another RB... knowing you are going after Stafford later.


Overall - Brees is the best keeper... but he's not part of the miracle that you will need to have a chance to win your league this year.
GREAT analysis. I'm honestly really leaning towards Forte too and I love Stafford even though he's a huge band-aid boy. The only thing that's holding me back from officially pulling the trigger is the fact Chi signed Marion Barber and I feel he will cut into Forte's carries, especially in the red zone so I'm not sure exactly how negatively this will affect Forte's value. What do you think? Round 2 I was going to go RB - I think all the better ones that are left will be gone already so I am realistically hoping to snag either Felix Jones, Fred Jackson, DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Grant, Mark Ingram, Beanie Wells, or Jahvid Best. But then again, if I go Jahvid Best maybe that's too many eggs in the Detroit basket lol.

Also - I understand the inherent risks I have to take since I don't have a 1st and one would be not keeping Brees and shooting for the stars elsewhere. I agree with this. But, to play a bit of a devil's advocate, since this is a keeper and if you are saying Brees is my "best" keeper, if I don't keep him aren't I suffering more in the long run as after this year I won't have him on my team anymore?

Thanks again for the great analysis.


Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaDawg View Post
what's football? Do you mean soccer or that American game with the oval shaped ball?



ok...I'll get out of here now and leave you guys to it. I just couldn't resist admitting my ignorance of the game. I follow almost every sport but football. For some reason I've never been able to get into it. Far too many players and positions to follow and I see it as a dark path that once I start down it I won't be able to turn around.
LOL.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
Seadawg - you need to join the DobberHockey fantasy football pool and AutoDraft a team.
Everybody likes knowing they won't finish last. You can be the "girl in the pool" and we can all feel shame when you beat us.

It'll be fun... (as I dangle a piece of candy from my darkly-tinted van)
Any more spots left in this pool Pengwin?
__________________
Roster:
C - Stamkos, Bergeron, M.Koivu, Stepan
W - Malkin(C/W), Benn(C/W), Backes(C/W), Iginla, Vanek, Voracek, J.Staal(C/W), Hemsky, Saad
D - Yandle, Goligoski
G - Lundqvist, Smith, Dubnyk, Khudobin
IR - Karlsson, Martin

12 teams h-to-h partial keeper league. Daily line-up changes.
End of the year u keep 1C, 2W, 2D, 1G
Categories: G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, FW, W, GAA, SV%, SHO
Lineup: 2C, 4W, 4D, 2G, 5Bench, 2IR
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Old 08-24-2011, 04:16 PM
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I'd go Jahvid Best.
Seriously, seriously... without that 1st round pick you are so far behind everybody else that you really need a miracle.

A Detroit Lions team that fully clicks will make you a contender.
If they don't click, you'll finish last... which I assume results in a decent draft pick.

re: Brees
Tough call. He is your best keeper. But here's the question you have to ask:
Can a team win your league without keeping a RB?
In most leagues, its a no. If teams have done it in your league, you should definitely consider keeping Brees. QBs definitely have longer shelf lifes and the best QBs are in their 30s... which means Brees could be "keeper worthy" for another 5 years. RBs tend to have about a 5-7 years shelf life, even for the best ones... and Forte is in Year 4.


*Yes, there are still spots in the DobberHockeyFFL. The thread is in this same section and has a link to the league. Just click & join. (And we need to reel in Seadawg too!)
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Old 08-24-2011, 04:51 PM
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If he's still there at #16 overall, I really like Jahvid Best too. Felix Jones could surprise as well. And Ryan Grant has been deemed the "#1" again in GB. Have to read into that a bit more, but that sounds tempting too.

Since this is only the 2nd year in my pool nothing has proven that a team can or can't win without keeping a RB. If I wasn't so unsure on Forte then I'd easily keep a RB, but just because in my eyes Forte is a #2RB on any given fantasy team at best then I'm not sure if that is worth not keeping a top 3 QB. If I keep Brees I'd go RB in the 2nd, 3rd and maybe 4th rounds and go for guys with high upside in hopes two of them pan out. Despite that, I'm still leaning towards keeping Forte and letting go of Brees,

Another thing I thought of , there is the fact that the name "Brees" carries so much value in trade talks. If I really feel I need to land a RB I could always keep Brees and possibly trade him for a RB who is better than Forte. There are so many ways this can pan out. I'm just muling over all the options. Thanks again for the continued feedback! I'm currently leaning towards Forte.
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Roster:
C - Stamkos, Bergeron, M.Koivu, Stepan
W - Malkin(C/W), Benn(C/W), Backes(C/W), Iginla, Vanek, Voracek, J.Staal(C/W), Hemsky, Saad
D - Yandle, Goligoski
G - Lundqvist, Smith, Dubnyk, Khudobin
IR - Karlsson, Martin

12 teams h-to-h partial keeper league. Daily line-up changes.
End of the year u keep 1C, 2W, 2D, 1G
Categories: G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, FW, W, GAA, SV%, SHO
Lineup: 2C, 4W, 4D, 2G, 5Bench, 2IR

Last edited by PocketRockets05; 08-24-2011 at 05:09 PM.
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Old 08-24-2011, 05:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
Seadawg - you need to join the DobberHockey fantasy football pool and AutoDraft a team.
Everybody likes knowing they won't finish last. You can be the "girl in the pool" and we can all feel shame when you beat us.

It'll be fun... (as I dangle a piece of candy from my darkly-tinted van)
I always knew you were a little bit evil, Pengwin.
__________________
10 team league, multi-cat, full keeper.

Forwards: J. Toews, J. Tavares, J. Eberle, J. Neal, A. Kopitar, T. Seguin, E. Kane, M. Duchene, J. Benn, M. Ryder, D. Brown, B. Marchand

Defense: A. Pietrangelo, K. Shattenkirk, A. Goligoski, PK Subban, J. Carlson, J. Spurgeon

Goalies: M. Smith, A. Niemi

Bench: R. Clowe, B. Dubinsky, M. Calvert, P. Mueller, D. Clarkson, M. Carle, M. Niskanen, P. Wiercioch, J. Halak, A. Lindback
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