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  #11  
Old 08-24-2011, 09:28 AM
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There is likely going to be differences from the prospects guide which I see as future thoughts where the guide is a more situational as it is more present minded with some future thoughts. I think there is a better idea of depth charts and line ups.
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  #12  
Old 08-24-2011, 11:39 AM
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Boys boys boys! Thanks for all the feedback. Just talkin about these kids gets me all excited.....
uhhh sorry I sound like Pierre now.

Obviously theres many different opinions but I think I will (hopefully) snag him at 11 and hope for the best from him.
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  #13  
Old 08-24-2011, 11:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeypoolgeek View Post
He might end up being a fantastic defenseman... but none of his stats at any level have been particularly impressive when compared to peers of of the same age. So he dominated the CHL last year... so what? He was nearly two years older than the average player in the league.

Maybe he's one of those prospects that really comes on a little later than most, but if I'm going to take a risk on a prospect (and they're all risks!) I'd rather have a guy who has produced numbers that stand out when compared to other guys of a similar age.
I'm going to have disagree on Elliott's numbers. In his draft year he put up 55 points in 71 games. That was good enough for 6th most amongst D-men in WHL. All the guys ahead of him were older than him; most 2 years older.

In the season after his draft year, Elliott put up 65 points in 72 games. That was good enough for 4th most amongst D-men in WHL. Two of three guys ahead of him were older than him; only his future teammate Tyson Barrie was the same age as Elliott.

Last year Elliott put up 81 points in 71 games. That led all D-men in WHL in scoring. His 31 goals also led all D-men in WHL. Elliott's 81 points was the 2nd highest point total by a D-man in WHL in 10 years.

So Elliott has been amongst the highest scoring D-man in WHL when compared to amongst his peers. He has improved each and every year and that's exactly what you want to see in a prospect. Last year he dominated like he should have. He's been trending upwards which is definately a sign you want to see in a prospect. I definately think his numbers stand out in a good way.
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  #14  
Old 08-24-2011, 11:56 AM
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Elliott has the WHL numbers but none of that gaurantees that those numbers translate to the NHL. Sure, it's better than a 30 point WHL dman but I think the numbers Dobber has him pegged are a little optimistic next year. I am sure Elliott will become a good NHL offensive defenseman but I am not so sure it happens next season.
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  #15  
Old 08-24-2011, 12:46 PM
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I find these "scouting reports" and "breakdowns" based on PIM totals to be utterly hilarious.

If you've seen the kid play more than a couple times, you automatically should know what kind of numbers/game he will bring you at the next level. A future 45+ point defender in the NHL. He's a must have in any league.


As for the Avs "depth" of defense...it might hurt Elliott for a year or two, but he's a higher calibre prospect than any other player on that blueline, outside of Erik Johnson. He won't be held back by guys like Cumiskey, Hunwick, Quincey or even fellow prospects in Barrie or Chouinard.

(With that being said, both those two prospects are more NHL ready than Stef).
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  #16  
Old 08-25-2011, 11:27 AM
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This is a very good thread - and much needed IMO. Stefan Elliott is one of the most interesting fantasy prospects I've evaluated in a long time. Full disclosure, I plan on picking Elliott with one of my top picks this year.

That said, I have some questions myself. Towards the end of the WHL season, the Elliott hype was in full swing. His numbers were through the roof and the fantasy gurus were labeling him a "future beast".

I believe even Dobber said "There aren't many defensemen I would rather own in a keeper" type of thing. But then the summer came and the read on Elliott is all over the place.

What I can't figure out is - are people downplaying Elliott to lower his value? Is that posturing carrying over to these forums? Because it seems like Elliott went from "Future Elite" to "Good Prospect" overnight around here.

I think JHM and HPG raise some solid questions about Elliott, but as far as I know, Renegade is the only person who has seen a TON of Elliott. I think that's part of the problem - the numbers are great but how many people have actually "observed" Elliott closely?

I've read conflicting scouting reports all over the place. The pro-Elliott camp say his offensive instincts are off the charts great; the anti-Elliott camp says he's an average skater who's extremely soft and won't be able to cash in on his wrist shot at the NHL level.

Living in the States, I've been very limited on what I've seen with Elliott. I study as much as possible and watch anything I can on him, but we really need to have people who see him a lot do a thorough breakdown about him (perhaps Renegade??)

Like I said, I'm still planning on snagging Stef early in my draft - hoping he ends up a 14g/36a/50pt. defenseman in the NHL one day.
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  #17  
Old 08-25-2011, 11:48 AM
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Theres a guy in my league that used to be a scout and he drafted him with his last pick last year. Cause he knew no one would know about him. Sure enough a year later so far hes right. He usally pulls these gems out every year. I have stef now cause he needed to make a trade but if he didnt need to he would of kept him.
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  #18  
Old 08-25-2011, 12:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
...
Being a WHL color analyst, not many have seen Elliott play as much as Renegadestylings, and by no means am I putting myself in the same category as him, but I have seen enough of Elliott play to gather an opinion on him. Personally, I probably watch more CHL games, Prospects games/camps, International tournaments, etc. than I watch NHL games. I'm not sure how many games are required to fully gauge a prospect's potential, but often I can get a good feel for a prospect's ability in a handful of games, supplemented with videos, scouting reports (both professional and amateur), and other sources of information (articles, interviews, etc.). This is often a subject of debate over on HFBoards. Not everyone can watch most prospects play live multiple times, but even those who don't can still have a warranted opinion on a player's potential, playing style, and NHL readiness.
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  #19  
Old 08-25-2011, 02:10 PM
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I figured I could chime in with a bit of a breakdown on Stef to provide some further information for the poolies around here.

Offense - We'll start with his bread and butter, because he is after all, a puck moving defenseman. The biggest thing that stands out in this aspect of his game is his skating. He's very slick and makes it look effortless. It's that mobility that allows him to jump into the rush and often join the rush.

He's extremely smart all over the ice and knows how to pick his spots and when to jump up. It's those smarts that will help him overcome some defensive deficiencies, more on that later. He's a great passer and can either find a player backdoor on the powerplay or simply send a rocket pass blueline to blueline to send in a player on a breakaway. Great vision and a crisp passer.

His wrist shot is among the hardest I have ever seen at the CHL level. It's a bullet and he can place it anywhere he wants.

As far as offensive weaknesses he has a couple. He doesn't have a great slapshot. He started to use it more down the stretch last year and it wasn't nearly as effective. That also means that he relies on his wrist shot a bit too much for my liking. His other big offensive weakness is play at the offensive blueline. For a guy with such soft hands, he tends to have trouble holding the puck in at the blueline more often than he should. That's really a minor complaint, I guess.

Defense
- This is where most of the questions come in about Stef. How good is he defensively? I would say he is slightly above average. That is mostly due to his mobility and his smarts. He is great at positioning his body and his stick and is able to read and react quicker than most players.

His weaknesses on defense are mostly due to his passive nature and lack of physicality. He won't ever be laying someone out because he simply tends to avoid contact. That may sound like a bad thing, but it isn't necessarily. He has no problem pinning guys on the boards or working hard to keep them corralled...he simply doesn't look for big hits. I'm not sure exactly why, but maybe it's just the competition he faced. He knew he didn't have to lay guys out and out muscle 16-17 year olds because he was smarter and faster. We'll see how he adjusts to playing against men, because I think that will be his biggest challenge.

Elliott will never win a Norris as the league's top defender but I won't go as far to say that he won't be a solid defensive defender at the NHL level. It's clearly something he will have to work at to excel at the next level but he's smart enough and skilled enough to adjust quite well.

Will those changes come this year? Likely not. I still see him playing in the AHL for the majority of this season. The Avs blueline has one spot, at most, for an offensive guy to come in and fill some minutes. Is that Elliott, Barrie or Joel Chouinard? Who knows, but I definitely think Barrie is currently more NHL ready simply because he's more well rounded defensively.

When discussing Stef's future output in a fantasy league, he's a cant miss guy. I still think he will be a safe 45+ point defender who likely plays with Erik Johnson on the first PP unit and plays top 4 minutes, possibly with a guy like Duncan Siemens.

There's enough value out there with him that you shouldn't have to worry about his slight current defensive issues. When those get worked out, you will see that this kid is truly in the upper class when it comes to offense from the backend.

Edit: Just for reference, I am in fact the colour man for the Blades and watched Stef live over 60 times last year as well as several times in years previous.
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  #20  
Old 08-25-2011, 02:38 PM
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Renegade, thanks a lot. This info is very helpful - great analysis by you.
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