Off to the races already I see!

Great start, Yas.

I know that CBJ will be in great hands with you at the helm.

As a Carter owner, I love all the info getting tossed around already, keep it up!

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Gates Imbeau
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You bring up some good points Emu. I'll be posting about Wiz, Russell and the rest of the Columbus D tomorrow morning (Eastern US, so about 9 hours or so I should be working on it). I've seen a few posts on it now and might include thoughts on the team's PP we could be seeing (spoiler: there are many potential options).

this is why i asked about him. so much promise and nothing coming out yet. too bad i only have him for one more year in the team in my sig and then i lose him. but i am guessing most of his lack of results is from the fact that clb's Powerplay has just been lacking that big time play maker and i think carter and wiz additions might just open up alot of opportunity for a guy like russell. he seems to be the pp quaterback for sometime but he was rushed into the job without much support or mentorship. maybe with those 2 guys and nash he can find his groove...

now guthey will defently be better as i am just hoping and quessing as a russell owner. cant wait for his insight!

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12 team H2H Keeper League
g/a/+-/PIM/PPP/SHP/SOG/W/GAA/SV%/SHO
play 4c/4lw/4rw/6d/2g (2min start)
Center: Datsyuk, Getzlaf, Marleau, Ribiero, Brian Boyle
RW: Hossa, Horton, Downie, Franzen, vrbata, Cole
LW: Kovalchuk, D.Sedin, Semin, Fleischmann,
Defense : Enstrom, E.Johnson, Goligoski, Wisniewski, Hamilton
Goalies: Lundqvist, Brodeur, S.Mason, Garon

Farm noteables: Niederreiter, Avtsyn, Greiss, Frazee, Kinkaid

The Wisniewski Signing

The signing of James Wisniewski by Columbus brings yet another type of threat the team has sorely been missing: a strong proven PP pointman.

Wisniewski is a guy a year ago most people barely thought about with a combination of injuries and overall streaky play. It wasn't until his fifth season of playing almost exclusively in the NHL that he hit 30 points with the Ducks during the 2009-2010 season. However after signing with the New York Islanders and the early injuries to Kyle Okposo and Mark Streit, people wondered if Wisniewski was still fantasy-relevant mostly due to the team he played on.

I personally believed that he was last season right near the end of his stint with the Islanders when I picked him up in my one-year league team that needed some more production from the blueline. If my stamp of approval isn't enough his 21 points in 32 games with the Isles should have convinced most in need of offensive numbers from their defensive pairings but if that still didn't his next 43 games with the Canadiens saw him put up 30 points.

However none of this is the main story now that people believe Wisniewski is an above-average to maybe lower end of the high-end offensive defensemen after this year is done. There are good reasons to believe that these lofty expectations for someone with the history I just described seem warranted: the Islanders gave him the opportunities he never had with the Blackhawks or the Ducks and the Canadiens gave him the responsibilities with better talent he never had prior either. The end result is that Wisniewski's responsibilities and surrounding talent increases again as he has always responded well to the expectations throughout his career once they were placed in front of him.

The lowest rung of the bar I'm setting for him to reach to be "worth it" is 40 points which might sound lenient to most but consider it is a new team and if either Nash or Carter get hurt than it still better than where he was but still the way this team is built is very different than either of the teams he played for in 2010-2011. The Canadiens lacked the scoring that the Blue Jackets should have now but had a rock solid young goalie during the year (except the preseason) and a good defense allowing Wisniewski to be more offensive than worry about his defensive assignments. The Islanders are more like the Blue Jackets with shaky goaltending (though both teams might simply out-score opponents now if all goes right) and general lack of expectations. Expectations are still pretty low in New York for the Islanders but not for the Blue Jackets who must get to the playoffs to prove that the investments made have been worth it.

The highest point total I see Wisniewski realistically achieving is 55 points for his first season with the Blue Jackets unless everything runs perfectly from the start for them. Expect more PP points and the goals to assist ratio to favor assists from the man they call Wiz.

Russell & the PP Units

On the other end of the spectrum is Kris Russell that while both he and James Wisniewski are under six feet tall aka under-sized defenders for the modern NHL, Russell isn't as physical as Wisniewski. However both have, in the earlier seasons of their career, hovered in the low-20s range in points. The toughest thing for Russell is that some times he is effective as an offensive blueliner and other times for whatever reason he can't generate production or chances either through a rush or a cycle.

Finally having someone who plays defense and has grown to understand the offensive side to the game like Wisniewski has could do wonders for Russell (no offense intended to Fedor Tyutin's 27 points last year that led the offense from the backend for the Blue Jackets). It does mean that Russell may move to the 2nd PP unit with likely Clitsome or maybe even Nash manning the point for top unit with at least Carter as a marquee scorer off the halfboards. I believe Russell will benefit long term regardless since he wasn't making progress without someone modeling and teaching him how to be a PP quarterback. Even on the 2nd unit this year I would be surprised if his numbers go down and with Carter and Prospal probably bumping at least one person off the top unit that means more talent of the R.J. Umberger, Derick Brassard or Antoine Vermette variety goes down to the 2nd unit. Something that should not be underrated as a boost for the 2nd PP unit is the eventual emergence of youngsters Tomas Kubalik, Ryan Johansen, Cam Atkinson and Maksim Mayorov with two of that four likely making the roster (I will highlight these players later).

How good will Columbus PP be? That my friend is a million dollar question for a fantasy GM. If you knew that they were going to be great you could really invest relatively cheaply still in their top players which, outside of Carter, Nash, and Wisniewski shouldn't have too high of a price tag relatively. If they are destined to fail now would be a great time to sell. My advice is if you feel strongly one way follow your gut feeling if you get a good offer involving Blue Jacket players since it is hard to really say just looking at them on paper.

John Moore and David Savard both have pretty good upside and are close but now have a much harder time cracking the lineup let alone getting on to a top PP unit. Expect one or both of them to at least get a cup of coffee/short appearance but they will need to really "wow" Columbus' management to get on to a PP unit. Even if one sticks, I won't set expectations that high to start the season until they force their way up the depth charts.

Welcome aboard!

Love the actions on your part.

Mason now has a reason to be concerned with Dekanish brought in. I think he's on a VERY short leash.

Thoughts?

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G,A,+/-,PPP,SHP,GWG,W,SV%,SO
12 Man H2H Keeper League
C - E.Malkin(rw)/B.Boyes(rw)/B. Sutter
LW - B.Ryan/M.Duchene(c)/R.Nash/T.Fleischmann/M.Paajarvi
RW - T.Selanne/C.Giroux(c)/J.Iginla/D.Alfredsson/C.Atkinson
D - M.Green/D.Byfuglien(rw)/R.Suter/O.Ekman-Larsson/J.Carlson/J.Brodin/C.Fowler
G - J.Hiller/J.Halak/J.Howard/J.Markstrom


Farm - A.York/J.Gibson/P.Grubauer/R.Murphy

great insight into the PP. really great stuff. i figured russell would be top unit with wiz but i hear your thoughts about a possible bump to the second unit. it will give him more time to learn how to do it on his own while wiz mentors him in practice or offthe ice.

should be an interesting year there. i think this team has imporoved and are making an effort. mason should beable to have less pressure on him and hopefully turn it around.

__________________
12 team H2H Keeper League
g/a/+-/PIM/PPP/SHP/SOG/W/GAA/SV%/SHO
play 4c/4lw/4rw/6d/2g (2min start)
Center: Datsyuk, Getzlaf, Marleau, Ribiero, Brian Boyle
RW: Hossa, Horton, Downie, Franzen, vrbata, Cole
LW: Kovalchuk, D.Sedin, Semin, Fleischmann,
Defense : Enstrom, E.Johnson, Goligoski, Wisniewski, Hamilton
Goalies: Lundqvist, Brodeur, S.Mason, Garon

Farm noteables: Niederreiter, Avtsyn, Greiss, Frazee, Kinkaid

I won't go as far as to say that Russell definitely won't be on the top PP unit especially considering that between Russell and Wiz they would have a right and a left shooting pointman. However, I think the expectation will be is to try and lessen the responsibilities he has given that they may have put too much on him for awhile and it hasn't exactly worked out. I think long-term his development will benefit from having Wiz on the top PP mentoring him and having him man the 2nd unit though it might not work that way but it is my best guess.

Steve Mason

I'll just say it now since it is probably what most of you already think: Steve Mason must play better this year. It is that simple. Sure he has a contract that has a cap hit at $2.9 million according to Cap Geek that gives him some security through the 2012-2013 season, that isn't what I am talking about. Instead, I am talking again about the raised expectations of the Blue Jackets organization, the fans, and the wider hockey community. The Blue Jackets can't afford to keep losing forever especially since every one takes note of your offseason moves and expects them to pay off when they are of that significant. It isn't like the the Blue Jackets are the only team to follow in Ohio with multiple better established baseball teams and of course, Ohio State University drawing fans to their athletic events.

So does this mean Mason rebounds or does the "one year wonder" legacy he is building just become cemented by the new pressure/his potentially eventual failure? It might be acceptable to say his fewer wins in years past are a result of him playing behind a low-scoring team with an average defense. Maybe you blame the change in coaches from Ken Hitchcock to Arniel, however what sticks out to me as a source of concern is that his GAA has been above 3 for the last two seasons and his save percentage seems stuck at .901 those past two years as well. So for a team that doesn't score alot to begin with to have a goalie that allows on average three goals per game is not a good thing. Wisniewski while a good addition to the defense is more offensive despite being physical and Carter while not a one-trick pony is not exactly a Pavel Datsyuk on defense. Vinny Prospal and defense sounds like the start of a good joke to me.

This does not mean I don't think the Blue Jackets won't win if Steve Mason's play doesn't improve. Heck they should score more goals and maybe a lot more goals than last season. All the same, long term Mason has to figure it out sooner rather than later otherwise he might turn into the two words no NHL starter wants to be "Andrew Raycroft." Not saying that Mason cannot turn it around since he can with his talent and age. However I would be careful to say that especially his peripheral stats (GAA and SV%) will improve much until we see something. Steve Mason is a volatile commodity that could really implode completely or pay off nicely since it will be one of the two extremes most likely.

Mark Dekanich

After posting very respectable numbers at Colgate University and in three AHL season, in most organizations Dekanich would be automatically resigned but with Anders Lindback, Atte Engren, Jeremy Smith, and Chet Pickard, breathing space behind Pekka Rinne has gotten a little too tight. Dekanich has become the odd-man out. I believe the perception was that the Predators had their starter for at least few years in Rinne (assuming like all of their goalies they eventually price themselves out) and by than one of four named above will be ready with Lindback being close and all of them at some point in their careers getting considerable praise.

Nashville however is in Dekanich's past but maybe some of the outstanding goalie mojo they have in Nashville will make it with Dekanich to Columbus. He is a big but very athletic goalie and should be Mason's backup this year with Garon no longer in Columbus. Depending on if he can make a good impression will dictate his future. He could A) play well enough if Mason struggles to steal the job over time B) play well enough to secure the backup role for the foreseeable future C) play poorly and become a career minor league all-star or D) not get a chance if Mason plays consistently good throughout the year. Four reasonably plausible options all with varying degrees of success or failure makes predicting any potential rewards hard to be certain of for Dekanich at this time.

My advice is if he can get him at a fair price in a keeper league to do it (well worth the gamble if you get him for the value of a backup goalie) but certainly it is not a safe enough bet to overpay as if he is a starter or future starter. My overall hunch for what we can expect from the Mason-Dekanich tandem is a moderate view that they both will be mediocre this season. Results for the duo could be similar to the Mason-Garon tandem of 2010-2011 except Dekanich is younger with a less familiar name than Garon.

Allen York

I've seen his first name spelled Allan and Allen but in any case 2010-2011 was a great year for York both at R.P.I. (NCAA) and the Springfield Falcons (AHL). His GAA and his SV% at both levels were superb and his 3-1 record in four AHL games is great for such a brief assessment.

I'll be the first to acknowledge that I am an Allen York fan as fantasy GM and as pro-NCAA fan (especially of the smaller Division 1 programs like R.I.P). I picked him up in my main keeper league (February 2011) and have drafted him in another one. It will be good to see how he does in a full AHL season under his belt but if Dekanich and/or Mason falter he might get some NHL opportunities. The more likely scenario is that he will have a good AHl season and will get a shot in a year or two to be a backup and depending on how he plays in that role maybe a starter just hard to know at this juncture since it also depends on the play of Mason, Dekanich and any newcomers the Blue Jackets might bring in.

Opening

I have realized that there is plenty of time before the season starts so I will take my time and highlight each player and prospect I feel is of note for awhile. I focus on prospect Tomas Kubalik in this post with some commentary about Czech and Slovakian hockey. I also assess international amateur players in general a bit. Hope you enjoy.


Kubalik's Hockey Background

Tomas Kubalik is exactly the reason why being an NHL scout of amateur talent is such a hard task because while many fantasy GMs rely on analyzing stats, hearsay, and perceived situations, try to tell me if you could've honestly assessed that Kubalik's draft year stats stood out very much.

I'll save you the trouble of looking them up:

Kubalik (07-08)
- 20 games played with Plzen HC (Czech)- 3 points
- 7 games with Beroun (Czech2)- 0 points
- 22 games with Plzen (Czech Jr.)- 21 points

Source- http://forecaster.ca/hockeynews/hockey/player.cgi?6772

This may also be a commentary on evaluating European players in European men's leagues in general and why playing against other junior level competition is best for draft value and perhaps development. However, not all European leagues are the same, the state of Czech and Slovakian hockey are not what they once were. Players from the two Eastern European countries are usually picked as a gamble more often than not with players from Sweden, for instance, being regarded as generally pretty "safe" acquisitions these days. It must be what a scout saw in those Czech Junior League games and the resulting statistics that led to the Blue Jackets selected Tomas Kubalik in the 5th round of the 2008 NHL Entry Draft. At the same time it isn't always easy to say that since he was at a point-per-game pace against juniors in his country that he would do the same in the Canadian major junior ranks since it is widely regarded that Canada has the best junior ranks in the world often by a hefty margin over the likes of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Impressively in his first season in the QMJHL on North American ice for the Victoriaville Tigres, Kubalik put up 75 points in 58 games. However, this 2008-2009 season in the Q was after the Blue Jackets had selected Kubalik so maybe for once it is just their luck paying off.

Evaluating Kubalik Now

Anyway I digress, Kubalik is coming off of a very good AHL season with the Springfield Falcons where he posted 53 points in 76 games (maybe North America suits his play better anyway). He had a good pre-season with Columbus last year and has some great tools. He is 6'3'' and over 200 pounds. The Blue Jackets see him as a guy who can score with some skill but it is his compete level and physicality that will open up even more opportunities for him if he adds more size and strength.

The problem for Kubalik is that a certain Matt Calvert had a very good streak to start his NHL career but the good news is he cooled off. Regardless, Calvert probably starts the year in the NHL but if he can't find his form than Kubalik could pass him.

Cam Atkinson and the tumultuous story that has been Maksim Mayorov's career so far could also be roadblocks (more on those two and Calvert later).

If Kubalik gets a chance I expect like he has throughout his career to grab it and run with it. He might cool off after awhile or he might not. The great thing for Kubalik is because of his height and willingness to get "chippy" with his opponents he could also carve out a role there too.

No responses after two more posts. You mean not all of you love the Blue Jackets?