[4T2's Towel Rack] Beating A Dead (Work) Horse - Page 2 - Fantasy Sports Forums

TK12555 · #11 08-26-2011, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4T2

Thanks dude, I just wish I had more time to make it a weekly or at least bi-weekly feature.

that would be awesome!

mister_mcgoo · #12 08-26-2011, 02:50 PM

nice writeup dude, but I dont get this part?

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4T2

It may be a bold statement, but the days of seeing goalies start 65+ games are over. We've heard it again and again but the NHL is a "copycat league" in much the same way that I am a "copycat writer". This story has been done by almost every writer covering hockey year-in year-out. But let's examine its impact from a fantasy standpoint, particularly goaltending.

This story has been done by almost every writer covering hockey year in and year out??? Who exactly are these writers and do they say what they are basing this claim off of? Frankly I'm not sure its a trend at all and I don't think it holds much water to be honest with you...goalie starts were down a little bit this season from the previous year but higher than they were in 2009, or 2005 or 2003. In fact if you look at the last 10 years there is no distinct trend at all, they seem to fluctuate up and down consistently, look I even plotted it for you:

I would guess that it has more to do with injuries and coaching style (some coaches love to alternate goalies, some like to go with the #1 guy 90% of the time) than it does anything.

Now as to your point of the league being copycat and mimicking techniques that have worked for other successful teams, I totally agree with that and time will tell if this is another scenario where we see that happen. Good read on the goalies too dude, thanks

4T2 · #13 08-26-2011, 06:59 PM

Any chance you can shrink that chart down mcgoo so that I can see your post. I was able to get the gist of it but I would like to read the whole thing so I'm not missing anything

4T2 · #14 08-26-2011, 07:09 PM

Nevermind mcgoo, I copied and pasted into Notepad, not sure why I didn't think of it before.

I guess I should have worded the opening a little different. I was more or less saying that the "copycat" angle has been covered quite a bit. I have read a couple of articles on the effect that may have on goaltending, but not from a fantasy standpoint.

I agree that it can not be considered a trend yet but the potential is there and I definitely think it goes that way this season (which would actually be year 2 since the numbers were down last year). Part of the secret to success is recognizing trends when they first start, as true in fantasy hockey as it is in the stock market.

I'm glad you liked the article though man, thanks. Always nice to get some feedback.

mister_mcgoo · #15 08-26-2011, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4T2

Nevermind mcgoo, I copied and pasted into Notepad, not sure why I didn't think of it before.

I guess I should have worded the opening a little different. I was more or less saying that the "copycat" angle has been covered quite a bit. I have read a couple of articles on the effect that may have on goaltending, but not from a fantasy standpoint.

I agree that it can not be considered a trend yet but the potential is there and I definitely think it goes that way this season (which would actually be year 2 since the numbers were down last year). Part of the secret to success is recognizing trends when they first start, as true in fantasy hockey as it is in the stock market.

I'm glad you liked the article though man, thanks. Always nice to get some feedback.

ah I see now...so you meant that lots of sports writers have focused on the copycat angle, but not specifically as related to goalie starts. I just read it wrong I guess.

One thing I'd caution with that theory though is that we had some big name goalies injured this year...Hiller, Rinne, Halak...if they all remain healthy this season you could see that trend evaporate pretty quickly

In general though I think you're right that having a rested goalie for the grueling playoff run is a big bonus, Tim Thomas certainly showed us how that was done this past season. I think it also depends on the goalie though, some guys thrive by playing more and it doesn't faze them in the slightest in the playoffs (Brodeur is the quintessential example)

4T2 · #16 08-26-2011, 08:15 PM

Great examples and you are right. If Hiller has a healthy season, he could hit 70 games especially if Ellis is not playing up to par. However, just a hunch that his health doesn't allow him to play that many.

Rinne has an excellent young backup in Lindback behind him and I don't think he will see more than 60-65.

Halak though had better play all 82 games or St Louis is f*cked. In all seriousness, I think Bishop will get the call more than Elliott but Halak has a good shot at playing 65. If he's playing well, then he very well could join Price and Kipper in the 70 club.

In all likelyhood though, Kipper and Price are the only goaltenders I would draft expecting close to 70 starts.

You are right, some guys can handle the workload, Brodeur being by far the best example. But those guys are few and far between. The examples of goalies being blamed in the playoffs due to fatigue are quite numerous. Look at Price this year or Luongo/Nabokov/Turco in years past.

I believe teams/coaches are finally recognizing that trend. Of course, next year Jacob Markstrom will probably emerge for Florida, play 75 games and lead them to the Cup just to spite me, but that's fantasy hockey for you.

4T2 · #17 08-26-2011, 08:28 PM

Edited the original post to make the first paragraph a little more clear. I knew there was something I didn't like about it, so thanks for bringing it to light mcgoo.

4T2 · #18 08-28-2011, 04:39 PM

Thanks for all the great feedback on this guys and all the rep. I'm glad people enjoyed it. Judging from the comments I've received, this was my best Towel Rack yet!

4T2 · #19 01-05-2012, 10:57 AM

Since it is halfway through the season, I'm going to follow suit with the Dobber columnists and go back and have a look at my goalie predictions for this year. This was originally posted on August 26th. So let's see how I did:

Quote:

Cam Ward - Ward started a league-high 74 games in 10-11. He couldn't quite play his team into a playoff berth though. Carolina signed the very capable Brian Boucher to the backup spot this year. Boucher will be able to keep the Canes competitive against weaker teams and allow Ward to rest up for the harder games. While this may mean less starts for Ward, it could help him turn a few of those 10-OTLs into Ws. Expect around 55-60 starts with great peripherals as always.

Miss - Boucher had started 5 of Carolina's 30-games which put him on pace for 13 games for the season. This means Ward would have got 69-games in. Boucher is not expected back until early February and even after his return, it is not likely that he takes much workload from Ward. Carolina is also much worse than I expected this season and can not afford to trust their backup as much as I hoped.

Quote:

Carey Price- Price started 70 games for Montreal last year with Alex Auld in the back-up role. He is their "golden boy" and they are trying to mould him into the next Patrick Roy (without the dramatic exit). Budaj is not likely to steal many games from him. Montreal brass tends to buck the trend in the NHL in spite of any outside criticism (See: size wins games). They are not likely to start following the herd now. Price will still be among the league leaders in games played and his stats should be very solid. Be careful late in the season though, as fatigue begins to set in.

Hit - Price is currently on pace for 72-games. The only thing that may change this is if Montreal continues their downward spiral and decide to tank for a better overall draft pick. If they are out of the picture by the trade deadline, I could see Price playing as few as 65 games. However, if they find their competitive edge, Budaj may only see the start two or three times between now and April.

Quote:

Miikka Kiprusoff- Kipper had his least games started last year since the lockout, only getting the nod a paltry 71 times. Calgary has a great young goalie behind him in Karlsson but he cannot develop a rhythm in the few spot starts he received. Calgary is another team that tends to march to their own beat though. While it's possible that they rest Kipper a little more, don't expect to see him less than 65 times this season while he puts up his average numbers.

Hit - Kipper is currently on pace for 66 games. Much like Carolina, the Flames are just not good enough to not ice their star goalie as much as possible. Karlsson being injured has forced them to turn to third-string goaltender Leland Irving. While Irving has put up solid numbers, the team only managed one win in those three games. Expect to see them ride Kiprusoff for the remainder of the season.

Quote:

Ilya Bryzgalov- The Flyers big free agent acquisition has a huge contract to live up to this year. However, don't expect that to mean he automatically starts 70+ games. On what could be a very good Philadelphia team, he is more than capable of being a Vezina finalist. However, the Flyers also have a great young goaltender to back him up in Bobrovsky. Does this sound familiar? Could the Flyers be emulating our two Conference Champions? 55-60 starts for Bryz should be in the cards this season and spectacular numbers across the board.

Hit - But strictly from a games played point of view. While currently on pace for 55-games. His numbers have been absolutely horrid and Bobrovsky is threatening to at least force a platoon system in Philly. I stand pat on my prediction though. Bryzgalov's contract guarantees that he will be given every chance to succeed and they will push him down the stretch to ensure he is ready for the playoffs.

Quote:

Henrik Lundqvist- King Henrik has been right up there with Kiprusoff for the last few years in his number of appearances. His #1 position will never be in question as Lundqvist is always at the top of his game. Marty Biron will never challenge for the top spot on the Rangers but he can definitely fill in as needed. Should New York follow the trend or lock up a playoff spot early, expect to see Lundqvist a little less. He should still be good for 65 starts and top-notch peripherals as usual.

Push - Lundqvist is only on pace for 62-games, the lowest of his career since his 53-game rookie season. The Rangers were the last team I expected to follow the path that took Boston and Vancouver to the finals last year. But that is exactly what they appear to be doing. If New York continues their solid play, Lundqvist will probably end up around the 60-game mark. However, if they hit any sort of slump, Lundqvist could easily climb up to 65 games. We'll have to wait and see on this one, but if I had to guess, I would say this will be a "miss" by year-end.

Quote:

Ryan Miller- He may not be a perennial 70-game starter but he has shown he can handle that workload if needed. With the Sabres upgrade from Lalime to Enroth though, that need will not be there. Enroth won't challenge for the #1, but he will allow Buffalo to rest Miller for a post-season run. Miller should get around 60 starts and could have a career season if rested.

Push - Miller is currently on pace for only 48-games but that is because he missed the bulk of November with what may or may not have been a concussion. In December, he started 11 of 15 games. At that rate, he should finish around 55-starts at the end of the year. Had it not been for the injury, that prorates to 62-games on the year. As for the "career season" part, well let's just assume I meant "career worst". His numbers have been pathetic.

Quote:

Marc-Andre Fleury- "Flower" has been forced to play a lot of games for the Penguins in recent years but he's never gotten into more than 67. With the recent emergence of part-time pugilist Brent Johnson as a capable goaltender; Fleury will probably not reach that 70 game barrier. He will continue to shoulder the load getting anywhere from 60-65 starts. If the Pens are healthy, expect Johnson to play more late in the season as Pittsburgh waits for the rest of the league to catch up.

Hit (For now) - Fleury is on pace for 65-games this season, although he could wind up with 70 if Johnson doesn't find his game. Fleury has been very solid for the Penguins and gives them a chance to win every night, which is more than can be said about Johnson. Johnson only started two games in each of November and December and could see even less if he doesn't pick it up.

Quote:

Martin Brodeur- The true definition of workhorse. With 12 seasons of over 70 games behind him, Marty has unquestionably been the most reliable fantasy goalie of the last 15-years. But at 39-years-old, those days are over. He is still a great goaltending option, but expect the Devils to let Hedberg handle a good 20-25 games and give the aging Brodeur more time for his afternoon nap and Matlock

Miss - Marty is only on pace for 50-starts this season. I expected a fall off, but not like that. With a 3.00 GAA and a .888 SV%, we could very well see Hedberg start getting even more time in net. When he was playing regularly in October, Hedberg was posting some very solid numbers. If he's given that opportunity again due to Brodeur's struggles, we could end up seeing a very close split by the end of the season.

All in all, 4 Hits, 2 Misses and 2 Pushes. It may not be spectacular, but it's fairly solid. Only time will tell if some of these will swing in my favor, or if I end up looking as foolish as Mr Subban does in my avatar

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