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The sophomore slump is one of the trickiest notions in fantasy sports. Each year we wonder which of these breakout rookies will make the step forward into stardom and which players will fade into the background. Do we have a Wojtek Wolski on our hands or a Bobby Ryan in the making? We'll examine this further...
Slump = Less than or equal to last years production Steady = Hovering around last years production Surge = Greater than last years production Jeff Skinner - Carolina Hurricanes - Why not start with the former Calder memorial trophy winner? Skinner shocked the critics coming into the season being drafted by the Hurricanes with the seventh overall pick to not only make the team, but to make the NHL All-Star team as an 18 year old and post a 31+32 season. In the offseason he took his sophomore preparation very seriously training with Gary Roberts and Matt Nichol. Also, he has started the season lined up with 'Cane captain, Eric Staal. It seems like you can't go a shift without hearing his name as he's always finding the open space and he never stops moving his legs. SURGE Taylor Hall - Edmonton Oilers - The former first overall pick had a rougher offseason after ending his rookie year with an injury in a fight. He couldn't begin his training until after completing rehab so while most players were taking time off after being eliminated from the postseason or regular season, Taylor was conditioning. He started the season with the highly touted prospect Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Ales Hemsky but an early injury to the dynamic Czech has now formed the kid line in Oil Country. Jordan Eberle on the opposite wing has created one of the speediest and most creative lines in the NHL. The most impactful trait of Taylor Hall is his presence on the powerplay. His name is said as much as the Jagr's or Selanne's while being on the man advantage. Its only a matter of time before those pucks tickle the twine more often than not. SURGE Michael Grabner - New York Islanders - Everyone has heard the story on how the Vancouver Canucks traded him to the Panthers and then prior to the season he was waived and claimed by the Islanders. Everyone saw him skate his butt off in the skills competition to claim the faster skater title. But not everyone saw his workload increase ten-fold in the second half of the season. When Capuano took over players were rewarded by hard work and effort every shift and Grabner was the prime example of that. The streaky Austrian finished the season around point per game from January to April. Does that mean he will continue to light the lamp? His shots per game were just above 4 per game in that period while before that at only 1.75 a game. So far this season, he has 5 shots in 4 games while lining up mostly with Nielsen and Okposo. The key to his success is clearly shots, shots, shots. So far (only 4 games in#, the recipe he concocted late in the season appears to be back to his early season ingredients. It probably isn't helping that hes 7th in forwards on the Islanders in PPTOI either. SLUMP Logan Couture - San Jose Sharks - The Sharks have struggled so far to find the back of the net even strength #T-25# and the leading scorer is on Couture lines while Couture has 1 pt in 4 games. Should we be worried? No, as Couture's second line is about to see a spark. That spark is Martin Havlat. Martin Havlat posted a 62 point campaign last season on the anemic Minnesota Wild scoring staff and those numbers should explode while being lined up on a perennial leading team in goals per game. Not discrediting the current line of Clowe-Couture-Wingels #although jumbled last game#, but how nice would it be adding the talent of Havlat? Couture is a dominating second liner who #like other sophomores# expresses hard talent on a nightly basis and as long as he continues the offensive prowl he displayed in the postseason last year, he should be fine. The one worrisome trend is that 8 times last season he went through a 3 game point drought. If he doesn't rally back with multi-point games, his name could turn to Wolski or Gagner very quickly. STEADY Tyler Ennis - Buffalo Sabres - On a show of hands, how many people are worried about the depth of the Buffalo Sabres? Well you should be! This team will post as many 40-60 point players as any. It won't help Ennis' case this season with 10 forwards averaging between 13:41 and 16:44 a night. Ennis is buried in the depth chart playing third line minutes and barely any powerplay time. After last season ending relatively positive with 14 points in his last 20, the additions of Leino and emergence of Adam will deter from any positive upswing in Ennis production. Depth = SLUMP Jordan Eberle - Edmonton Oilers - As mentioned in Hall's blurb, Eberle is now playing on the top of the Fake ID line with RNH and Taylor. How long will it last? Well if the only Oiler game you saw all season was on Saturday night, you would have to say forever. The line was buzzing all night exploiting with top-flight speed and nifty passes. Eberle finished last year the same way he started it, with a 50ish point pace. With the additions of Nugent-Hopkins and Ryan Smyth, he won't be relied on too heavily especially on the powerplay. If this line can stick, then they'll have to find an alternate line for Hemsky to play on, but if not...Eberle will be back to his 14 minute nights without the talents of two rising stars. STEADY Derek Stepan - New York Rangers - Well so far this season Stepan has started games lined up with Prust-Boyle, Fedotenko-Zuccarello and lastly Richards-Gaborik. Which line will he be with this season? Well noone seems to know. The one thing we do know is that he is playing with the heart of Chris Drury out there going down to block every shot possible and hes playing with the physicality of Ryan Callahan. This should bode well for Stepan owners as hes doing everything possible to stick with the top six. His role at left wing doesn't help for faceoffs, but its the only way he can stay on the top two lines. The sacrifice of faceoffs for points seems like a great one. Stepan is blossoming into a solid two-way player with the hands of a scorer so he shouldn't see a step back with all the hard work he puts in. If Wolski does infact gel with the big two, Stepan will return to the third line which is why he is STEADY Tyler Seguin - Boston Bruins - Already with a cup under his belt #what?#, Seguin now knows the hard work and dedication it takes to be a winner in the league. He posted six points in his first two playoff games but eventually fell off the map. This season he is playing first line minutes with the two most talented wingers on the team, Milan Lucic and Nathan Horton. With this added responsibility, he's proving why he was drafted second overall. He leads the team with 5 points in his first 5 and is playing 17 a night instead of the 12 a night he played in his rookie year. SURGE Kevin Shattenkirk - St. Louis Blues - What were you thinking Colorado? After being dealt to the Blues, Shattenkirk performed at a 53 point pace and having about 1.5 shots per game. This season Kevin Shattenkirk is off to moderately good starts posting 3 apples in 5 games. His shot's per game are about the same and he is leading the team in powerplay points. It is very possible we could see the 53 point pace come to fruition with the Blues forwards a year older and an oozing depth chart. 46 points for a rookie defenseman is great, but why stop there? SURGE P.K. Subban - Montreal Canadiens - Subban finished last season with 38 points. A speculation why he didn't get more? Too heavy of a work load. He played almost top minutes shorthanded and top PP minutes. This season should be no different. The depth in the Habs back end has decreased with youth finding its way in Emelin and Diaz. The injury to Spacek won't help him take any shifts off but one year older he now knows the responsibility and dedication is takes to perform at the NHL level. He is playing top PP minutes again and as long as they don't split up him and Markov on the PP, he should see a tremendous spike in extra-strength points. SURGE John Carlson - Washington Capitals - Carlson played amazingly against the New York Rangers in the playoffs last season shutting down Gaborik and the Blueshirts. But once he hit the Lightning, it was a different story. This season the Caps appear to have him in a more defensive role as hes only averaging 0:31PPTOI a game. With Green and Wideman fronting the offensive load, it will be difficult for Carlson to match the 37 point debut in his first full season. SLUMP
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#2
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The others...
David Desharnais - Montreal Canadiens - Desharnais is seeing a huge boost in ice time and is playing a bunch of shifts with the offensively gifted Max Pacioretty. SURGE Magnus Paajarvi - Edmonton Oilers - Paajarvi is playing a bunch of time on the point on the second powerplay, but the depth and new faces of the Oilers will make it difficult for him to see a boost in production. STEADY Alexander Burmistrov - Winnipeg Jets - Alex has started the season with the team lead in points with 3A in 4 games. He's third in TOI only to Ladd and barely edged out by Antropov. The only problem is that hes seeing more time on the PK than PP. He supposed to round out into a solid two way player, so hopefully the offense comes with the learning process. The Winnipeg crowd should help him out. SURGE Mattias Tedenby - New Jersey Devils - Tedenby has started the season playing mostly third line minutes, but today the Devils had him practicing with Kovalchuk. If he can find a way into top 6 minutes then he will have a huge increase in production. The problem is, hes playing 10 minutes a night WITHOUT Zajac in the lineup. STEADY Mikael Backlund - Calgary Flames - An unfortunate injury has held Backlund out at the start of the year, but it was said by Sutter that he hopes to have Backlund line up with Iginla this season. Once hes back, we should expect a SURGE Bobby Butler - Ottawa Senators - Butler was recently placed on the IR, but before then was scratched more often than not. He was supposed to line up with Spezza at the beginning of preseason but Michalek and Filatov did. He better hope he gets healthy before Filatov comes back up. Depending on what happens with Zibanejad, a top 6 spot could open up for Butler to take. SLUMP
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Follow me for some fantasy hockey tweets @thelandshock |
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