kessel - point prediction this year - Page 4 - Fantasy Sports Forums

jhonny · #31 07-20-2011, 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo

man that is some finnnnnnneeeee bud you've got in your bong apparently, how bout hooking the rest of us up with some of that giggle weed?

I didn't think it would get all the attention... I will back off the Leaf player threads moving forward; however, my bong ammo will be of no desire when Kessel is a 30 year old just coming off his career best 84 point season. I am shocked to see the strong type casting for a kid that hasn't burned off his baby fat yet. Though I agree my predictions are bold and obviously against the grain. And when we talk upside, what is the percentage of folks that actually hit it? To say 70 is his upside is low... to say 90 is high... so no one out there thinks Kessel will ever hit 80. OK... I just disagree.

ross10019 · #32 07-20-2011, 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jhonny

I didn't think it would get all the attention... I will back off the Leaf player threads moving forward; however, my bong ammo will be of no desire when Kessel is a 30 year old just coming off his career best 84 point season. I am shocked to see the strong type casting for a kid that hasn't burned off his baby fat yet. Though I agree my predictions are bold and obviously against the grain. And when we talk upside, what is the percentage of folks that actually hit it? To say 70 is his upside is low... to say 90 is high... so no one out there thinks Kessel will ever hit 80. OK... I just disagree.

Jhonny, I don't think you should back off from Leaf player threads, far from it, keep them coming. There is nothing personal about these exchanges regarding Kessel, the reality is that he is somewhat of a polarizing player due to his reputation for being relatively one-dimensional and not a "character" player (some of these may admittedly be somewhat unfair characterizations) and also because he was the centerpiece of that huge trade. My opinion is that he has the TALENT to have upside of 80-90 points, but as I posted previously, I just don't think that he'll ever come close to that unless he is surrounded by elite talent and isn't the go-to guy for his team (I think given his character he would not thrive where he is the focal point of an offense). For sure, he may hit 80 points at some point in his career, and possibly (although unlikely) even without elite talent surrounding him, but most of us don't seem to think he can get there anytime soon.

It's kind of like the thread I posted months ago about whether an NHL GM, right NOW, would trade Kessel for Seguin or vice versa. Unfortunately some Leaf fans took that as an attack on Burke, the Leafs, Kessel, etc., where honestly it was just a comparison between two young players as we often seek to do on these threads. There is clearly some sensitivity when it comes to discussing Kessel, mainly due to that gigantic trade that brought him to the Leafs.

Princeton · #33 07-20-2011, 11:24 AM

Fact: I am a Leafs fan
Fact: I usually hate the way the team is put together and our general lack of patience
Fact: I hated the Kessel trade.

That being said I do think that Kessel has a ton of potential. For all of the Leafs fans that bitch that he doesn't hit and plays on the peripheral. Yup. That's what he does. And he's good at it. He's no Gretzky but did the Great One win a million puck battles? NO

Kessel is a sniper. Pure and simple.

Another fact is that he hasn't played with an above average center since leaving Boston. Is Connolly above average for a 1st line center? Probably not. Is he better than Bozak? Yup. Grabo? Yup Any other Leaf center for the past 2 years? Yup.

I prayed all summer that Richards would sign in TO because Kessel's value would shoot through the roof. Especially in a league like mine that counts double the points for goals. No dice.

But to say he won't improve on his #'s when he is still ridiculously young is wrong IMO.

I can see 37 and 39 this year. Which in my league is 111 pts not including game winners. He's a pretty valuable asset to have.

Do I think the Leafs will make the play-offs. NO
Are they better then last year. Yes but not by much.

I try to be a realist with the team I cheer for and I think I am in this situation.

Maybe I'm wrong. But maybe I'm right. But Kessel's getting better.

ross10019 · #34 07-20-2011, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Princeton

Fact: I am a Leafs fan
Fact: I usually hate the way the team is put together and our general lack of patience
Fact: I hated the Kessel trade.

That being said I do think that Kessel has a ton of potential. For all of the Leafs fans that bitch that he doesn't hit and plays on the peripheral. Yup. That's what he does. And he good at it. He's no Gretzky but did the Great One win a million puck battles? NO

Kessel is a sniper. Pure and simple.

Another fact is that he hasn't played with an above average center since leaving Boston. Is Connolly above average for a 1st line center? Probably not. Is he better than Bozak? Yup. Grabo? Yup Any other Leaf center for the past 2 years? Yup.

I prayed all summer that Richards would sign in TO because Kessel's value would shoot through the roof. Especially in a league like mine that counts double the points for goals. No dice.

But to say he won't improve on his #'s when he is still ridiculously young is wrong IMO.

I can see 37 and 39 this year. Which in my league is 111 pts not including game winners. He's a pretty valuable asset to have.

Do I think the Leafs will make the play-offs. NO
Are they better then last year. Yes but not by much.

I try to be a realist with the team I cheer for and I think I am in this situation.

Maybe I'm wrong. But maybe I'm right. But Kessel's getting better.

Good post. Yes, Kessel's getting better, but anyone drafting him this year with the expectation that he'll put up 76 points is taking a HUGE gamble. I think there's a miniscule chance of that happening, less than 5%.

mister_mcgoo · #35 07-20-2011, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jhonny

I didn't think it would get all the attention... I will back off the Leaf player threads moving forward; however, my bong ammo will be of no desire when Kessel is a 30 year old just coming off his career best 84 point season. I am shocked to see the strong type casting for a kid that hasn't burned off his baby fat yet. Though I agree my predictions are bold and obviously against the grain. And when we talk upside, what is the percentage of folks that actually hit it? To say 70 is his upside is low... to say 90 is high... so no one out there thinks Kessel will ever hit 80. OK... I just disagree.

no dude, by all means share your thoughts, I just wanted a pull off that wacky tabacky you were smoking

Kessel is entering his 6th season, usually by the time a player gets to that point in their career you have a pretty good indication of what kind of numbers they're gonna put up. If you see a guy steadily increasing his numbers year after year then there is cause for optimism but if he keeps hitting the same range then that's probably the kind of player he's going to be. He 'could' score 80-90 pts some season if he had the perfect combination (i.e. a stud playmaking center, a solid top 3 lines to take the heat off him and allow favorable matchups, etc etc) but barring some extraordinary circumstances I don't see it happening

Princeton · #36 07-20-2011, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mister_mcgoo

no dude, by all means share your thoughts, I just wanted a pull off that wacky tabacky you were smoking

Kessel is entering his 6th season, usually by the time a player gets to that point in their career you have a pretty good indication of what kind of numbers they're gonna put up. If you see a guy steadily increasing his numbers year after year then there is cause for optimism but if he keeps hitting the same range then that's probably the kind of player he's going to be. He 'could' score 80-90 pts some season if he had the perfect combination (i.e. a stud playmaking center, a solid top 3 lines to take the heat off him and allow favorable matchups, etc etc) but barring some extraordinary circumstances I don't see it happening

I agree with your thoughts.............somewhat.

In your 6th year you should be putting up better stats than in your 2nd or 3rd year.
BUT
I think the situation is a little bit different than in most cases.

1. Not too many players are in their 6th season at age 24.

2. Secondly, the last two years he probably would have improved if he had been playing with the same talent that he had been in Boston. Their centers would have been (Savard, Krejci, Bergeron and Seguin). On the Leafs he got Bozak. Big difference.

jayz16 · #37 07-20-2011, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Princeton

I agree with your thoughts.............somewhat.

In your 6th year you should be putting up better stats than in your 2nd or 3rd year.
BUT
I think the situation is a little bit different than in most cases.

1. Not too many players are in their 6th season at age 24.

2. Secondly, the last two years he probably would have improved if he had been playing with the same talent that he had been in Boston. Their centers would have been (Savard, Krejci, Bergeron and Seguin). On the Leafs he got Bozak. Big difference.

And Stajan that first year.......... OH MY GAWWWWWWWD!

Kessel is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma... No wait, actually he isn't at all. He's a sniper that will score more goals than assists but could POTENTIALLY equal his goal and assist outputs.

So, let's say his peak is about 40 goals, which we can all agree on, he can potentially put up 40 assists, bringing his total to 80 and about a PPG. This, as previously mentioned, is if all goes right.

Realistically, he's a 65-70 player that is goal heavier. That's my opinion that's unbiased as clearly I'm not a Leaf fan :P.

jhonny · #38 07-20-2011, 06:18 PM

I really can't wait for the season to start... but we sure do have some fun in the Summer on Dobber...

Hey Mcgoo, unfortunately I had the misfortune of drinking bongwater the morning after my mom's 21st birthday party when I was 4... I have never hit one in my life, nor can I get within 10 feet of one because of that. Maybe it was that very incident that has caused me to think I will see the day that Kessel hits 80+...

Bass56 · #39 07-20-2011, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jhonny

I really can't wait for the season to start... but we sure do have some fun in the Summer on Dobber...

Hey Mcgoo, unfortunately I had the misfortune of drinking bongwater the morning after my mom's 21st birthday party when I was 4... I have never hit one in my life, nor can I get within 10 feet of one because of that. Maybe it was that very incident that has caused me to think I will see the day that Kessel hits 80+...

lol I kept reading your story, wondering where this was going... thanks for the laugh

PS: Kessel hits 70pts max while in Toronto (until he gets an elite center, don't expect him to break 70)

jhonny · #40 12-30-2012, 12:03 AM

Had to bump this after reading some prediction threads lately... not sure if my fantasy hockey boredom can reach another level - season better not get cancelled.

Kessel pulled off a ppg season earlier than I thought... and without that stud playmaking center he sorely needs. And his assists outnumbered his goals!

I wonder what might come should JVR breakout as a pivot.

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