Correcting a Misconception re Rangers and Callahan Arbitration Filing - Fantasy Sports Forums

ross10019 · #1 07-06-2011, 09:43 AM

As everyone is aware, the Rangers had several key players, notably Callahan and Dubinsky, file for arbitration yesterday. It's easy to assume this is a bad move by the Rangers, and that Sather is "dissing" these key players and penny-pinching, basically, but this is not the case - Rangers fans, no worries, Callahan and Dubinsky will be back and this arbitration isn't going to change anything.

A few weeks ago I read a very compelling blog post that suggested that the Rangers would INTENTIONALLY plan it with Callahan and Dubinsky that they would go to an arbitration hearing in order for the Rangers to be allowed a 2nd buyout period after the 1st buyout period expired - this can happen when a player goes to an arbitration hearing, the theory being that if the arbitrator gives a very high award, the team might have no choice but to buy out other players to make room for the player having received the arbitration award.

An article by Larry Brooks this morning further emphasizes the points and adds a few other factors to the mix which show the advantages of these arbitration filings. See below.

I'm pretty sure the arbitration hearing must take place for the 2nd buyout period to open up, so they have to go thruogh the arbitration (i.e., they can't settle beforehand), so it potentially raises some tricky issues - arbitration hearings are usually messy and uncomfortable for all involved, you have a team that must argue based on all the NEGATIVES of a player and the team must de-emphasize all the positives the player brings to the table, so it often will create bad blood (makes the player feel like crap, basically), so I'm sure they would have to tread carefully here with Cally and Duby even if they planned it. Given Callahan's importance to this team (he is, in my mind, the most important piece if the Rangers are going to win the Cup, next to Lundqvist, and on a par with the Staal/Girardi pairing), there is no doubt in my mind that the Rangers will be very careful with their comments in the hearing.

Filings mean key Rangers sticking
Slap Shots Blog
Brooks on TwitterBy LARRY BROOKS

Last Updated: 3:18 AM, July 6, 2011

Posted: 12:47 AM, July 6, 2011

It's difficult to have a more productive day in the offseason without signing anybody than the Rangers and GM Glen Sather did yesterday.

For when Ryan Callahan, Brandon Dubinsky, Brian Boyle and Michael Sauer all filed for salary arbitration prior to the 5 p.m. deadline, it accomplished the following for the Blueshirts:

1. It removes the possibility of another team giving an offer sheet to any of these players.

2. It eliminates the specter of a protracted contract stalemate extending into training camp.

3. It triggers a second buyout round late this month or early next month.

Reuters
BACK IN BLUE: Brandon Dubinsky (left) and Ryan Callahan (right), celebrating with Dan Girardi this season, were among four Rangers who filed for salary arbitration yesterday, all but assuring their return.
The idea, of course, is to avoid arbitration and get each player signed to a long-term deal. That's the plan on all sides. But salary arbitration provides a fail-safe for Sather and newly installed assistant GM Jeff Gorton in case negotiations grind to a halt.

The Rangers will have each of these four players under contract by the first week of August, unless an arbitrator's decision is so out of whack the club chooses to walk away. That's extremely unlikely given the easy-way-out, split-the-difference approach to the job that arbitrators routinely have taken one summer after another.

It's fair to project that bookend foundation pieces Callahan and Dubinsky will come in at somewhere between $3.7 million and $4.4 million per season. It's safe to say Sauer, prime for an offer sheet that inexplicably did not materialize over the last four days, will be in at between $1.5 million and $2 million. Boyle is a tougher case, coming off his first productive year in the NHL, but he likely will come in between $1.25 million and $1.75 million.

Splitting the difference -- and allowing for a slight deviation in these numbers should the players negotiate long-term deals prior to arbitration -- would add up to approximately $11.75 million. Adding another $1.25 million for Artem Anisimov, a restricted free agent without arbitration rights coming off Entry Level, equals an approximate $13 million.

Allowing for previous contracts signed while sliding Tim Erixon, Sean Avery and Mats Zuccarello onto the roster, the Rangers would then be left with just under $3 million in cap space to pursue a veteran defenseman or make another move. That number could escalate by $3.33 million if the Blueshirts decide to buy out the final year of Wojtek Wolski's contract.

The decision on Wolski that for cap purposes must be reached this month -- if it hasn't been already -- is essentially whether the Rangers project the 25-year-old as a sure-thing top-six forward. If so, the team will bear the $3.8 million cap hit (and $4 million salary). If not, if there is skepticism, then expect a buyout that will result in a total cap charge of $467,000.

It's believed Sather will be patient in his hunt for a defenseman, and indeed may wait until arbitration, the second round of buyouts, and the Kings' signing of restricted free agent Drew Doughty, to determine who might become available via a trade.

Regardless, there are no worries about contract issues spilling into training camp. The four players filing for arbitration yesterday guaranteed that. Unless Derek Jeter had six hits last night in Cleveland, it's hard to have a better July 5 than Sather did by doing nothing.

larry.brooks@nypost.com

Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/range...#ixzz1RKaqjJ00

ross10019 · #2 07-06-2011, 09:58 AM

As Brooks suggests, the big buyout candidate is Wolski, which would give them about $6m in cap space which could net them a very high end Dman, either at the start of the season or at the trading deadline in February. That said, I think Wolski might be a perfect fit on the left side with Richards and Gabby, no guarantee obviously, but it might be the spot for him to excel. So Sather may just keep him and wait until the trading deadline to add a top Dman through the trade route, since that $3m in cap space at the beginning of the season will be more like $9m in cap space once February rolls around due to the pro-ration of salaries at that time.

On another note, I think these arbitration filings are huge for the Rangers in another way, especially given that Dubinsky has a history of holding out through training camp. It shows a concerted effort and therefore a belief by these players in what this team is trying to build, and a desire to be a part of it going forward.

The Rangers are so underrated it's not funny. My prediction is that, with the Richards signing and with the possibility of a $4m+ Dman coming on at some point during the season, the Rangers will be primed for a nice playoff run this season, will win at least one round and possibly two. Watch guys like Mike Rupp, Brandon Prust, and Brian Boyle play key roles in the playoffs. Next year? We're talking conference final or bust. After that, once Callahan, Dubinsky, Girardi and Stall are in their prime and at the top of their games, with Lundqvist still in his early 30s, with Richards and Gabby having had time to gel, with Stepan and McDonagh taking the next steps towards the stars they will certainly become, a Cup is definitely on the radar.

If I was the Penguins and Flyers, I'd be keeping a close eye on the Rangers in my rear view mirror, it will be a war between those three teams for the foreseeable future, and it will be fun to watch.

letnry · #3 07-06-2011, 10:07 AM

Arbitration awards are only 1 year deals though right? Given the choice, you'd think the Rangers would want to lock up Dubinsky and Callahan a little longer term than that and burn some years of unrestricted free agency (in Callahan's case at least).

ross10019 · #4 07-06-2011, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letnry

Arbitration awards are only 1 year deals though right? Given the choice, you'd think the Rangers would want to lock up Dubinsky and Callahan a little longer term than that and burn some years of unrestricted free agency (in Callahan's case at least).

No, the term is based on whether the club elects, in its submission, to abide by a ruling for either a 1 year or a 2 year term. So the Rangers could tie up both those guys for up to 2 years.

That said, I agree it's a risk because in 2 years time those guys could command closer to $5m per year, and now is a good time to lock up key guys (esp Callahan) to a long term deal, like they did with Staal and Girardi. I assume Sather is willing to take that risk to have much greater flexibility on the buyout side of things.

kevinsrangers · #5 07-06-2011, 10:46 AM

sigh of relief. thanks.

ross10019 · #6 07-07-2011, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ross10019

As Brooks suggests, the big buyout candidate is Wolski, which would give them about $6m in cap space which could net them a very high end Dman, either at the start of the season or at the trading deadline in February. That said, I think Wolski might be a perfect fit on the left side with Richards and Gabby, no guarantee obviously, but it might be the spot for him to excel.

To update this point, I completely forgot about Fedotenko and the fact that he was Brad Richard's linemate in Tampa, so he might be the perfect guy to line up with Gabby and Richards and have Wolski try to make an impact on the 2nd or 3rd line. Fedotenko gave an interview recently where he said obviously he'd love to reunite with Richards. Obviously he doesn't have anywhere near the skill of those players but he could be a good complement and, while he's not huge, he would bring some size to that line.

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