Too much for OVY??? Help a brother out... - Page 2 - Fantasy Sports Forums

Kickerz · #11 01-30-2011, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goggles Pizano

WAIT A MINUTE HERE!

In this format with goaltenders getting 2 for a win and 4 for a shut out that means Ward is a legitimate 100 pt guy.

It really depends on who you can get to replace Ward and which forward would you be using if yo u didn't have Ovechkin.

I'm not sure how many keepers you get but looking at the size of your roster and in a 14 team league you should be able to get a decent 70 pt forward with considerable upside without much trouble. Maybe even on the waiverwire if you are smart.

Can you say teh same about goalies? I doubt it and imagine there is slim pickings in a league like yours.

So if OV can get you 100-110 each year you are improving by 30-40 points over any random forward you might get instead. Maybe much less if you can find a sleeper

If Ward gets you 90-100 every year but can only be replaced by a 50-70 pt goalie the you are losing out on 30-50pts in the golie category. Not to mention another 10 to 20 losing Heatley.

Yes very nice to get Ovy but it's a lot closer than it seems in a format like this.

You really have to gauge what kind of goalies are going to be available in the coming years before you do this deal. A clearcut starting goalie like Ward is gold when you only count W and SO's. It's all about games played. If all the starting goalies are taken and you get left with a backup type guy your points lost on goalies could be much greater than the bonus OV gives you.

Sure yo ucan find a replacement goalie but in most cases finding a good starting goalie is really hard and can take several season's if you are just drafting prospects.

If you are considering trading for another goalie then factor in who you'd have to give up and then add that onto the Ward, Heatley price tag as well.

Looking at your roster you have a lot of young up and comers and should be competitive soon. Getting OV might actually set you back a season or two as ironic as that is.

Welcome to the boards...But you have a lot to learn... Grasshopper.

Take Ovie at that price, and take him quickly...Than kick your heels into the air and buy a round!

Goggles Pizano · #12 01-30-2011, 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kickerz

Welcome to the boards...But you have a lot to learn... Grasshopper.

Take Ovie at that price, and take him quickly...Than kick your heels into the air and buy a round!

OK Obi Wan edumacate me.

OV 100
Crappy back up 50 or 60
= 160

Heater 90
Ward 100
=190

Looking at his roster the teams are carrying 3 goalies and very few fwds. 14 teamsX3 means you are reaching REALLY deep into the goalie pool. I would think there are lots of decent available fwds in that league. I'm also guessing he's going to have to give up a ton more than Matt Duchene to get another top flight goalie. If goalies were that cheap why would he offer up OV?

I realize OV is gold and the usual answer in most leagues would be to jump on this deal. (So thanks for the grasshopper comment and be aware that my post count isn't indicative of my fantasy experience. I like it that way

)

This deal looks more like a league format issue to me. If the guy is offering OV for just Ward and Heatley I get the impression that good goalies are extremely tough to come by. (Or the guy is a total idiot.) If the guy is in the running to win I doubt that. Just taking all the available info in and trying to figure out the right path for this guy. I'ts always good to get other opinions or views to make the right call.

I never said don't do it. I just said it's much closer than it looks. OV and all.

bballplyr321 · #13 01-31-2011, 02:53 PM

Well in order for Ward to get you 100 points, he has to win 40 games and have 5 SO. He has done this one time in his career more realistically, he is going to get you 35 wins and 4 SO so that is 86 points. Quite a difference from 100. Heater is NOT going to be a consistent 90 point player any more. Not even on the Sharks. He is on pace for 70 right now but more realistically, 80 is going to be what he will get. So 80+75 = 165. A 100 point season is not the norm for OV. Over the last three years he has averaged just over 110 a season. This year he is down but I believe that he is hurt. Still, my baseline is 110 points. So you are giving up a consistant 150 points for 110. Even with a crappy backup (55 points), he is going to come out even. Who has the bigger chance of breaking out and dominating? OV because he is the best player in the deal. 120-130 points is not outside the realm of possibility. And he will be able to get something in the draft or at the very least trade for something. But the fact is he is last in the league and this is going to make him better because now he has one the best players to own in fantasy. A classic win now, give up the future on the part of the other player.

In summation, this is a lot closer then it would appear on first glance but upon closer examination, the deal still makes a ton of sense for both parties. The party giving up OV wins this season. The guy getting OV now has a SOLID base to build upon.

Nas · #14 01-31-2011, 03:30 PM

Good observation Goggles, you brought up a point that no one else decided to address. At the very least you've made us see that its a lot closer than it initially appears. I have to agree with bball and his numbers. I would pull the trigger on this deal.

Goggles Pizano · #15 01-31-2011, 03:39 PM

Well thanks I'm just trying to look at this objectively and not instinctively.

I do disagree with Bballs numbers

80+75 doesn't equal 165

Also Ward is on pace for 96 pts this year and has been hurt the last two years so it's tough to write him off for that.

I guess my real point is that the top goalies in a league like this are going to scoring well over 100 points. The top 2 or 3 are going to be getting 130+ and out producing OV and Crosby every year.

That's probably why the guy is willing to give up OV.

It looks like a points only league too so it's not like you can just ride another goalie. You are stuck with who you have.

I'm sure you can't really go too wrong with OV but just wanted to point out it's probably almost as tough to replace a guy like Ward in a league like that..

bballplyr321 · #16 01-31-2011, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goggles Pizano

I do disagree with Bballs numbers

80+75 doesn't equal 165

What??!?!?!?!?! Since when? No seriously, I started out with Ward winning 30 with 4 shut-outs but went back to take a look and revised that to 35 wins but forgot to change all the numbers. My apologies.

Goggles Pizano · #17 02-01-2011, 10:09 AM

Just curious if you guys feel the same if this deal was for a Luongo, Price, or Lundqvist? The three top goalies (IMO) who could exceed 120 and 130 in a system like this.

Kickerz · #18 02-02-2011, 12:47 AM

The point is...if you can acquire Malkin, Crosby or Ovechkin you do it. Regardless of the cost. REGARDLESS. Once you have one of these 3, you do the work you need to in order to make it work.

So...If the best goalie available in FA is Henrik Karlson... And goalies score 2 for a win and 6 for SO.... Do you move your best Goalie and both Sedins to get AO? The answer is yes...

Afterwards...you go into recovery mode and do what you need to do. It will always be easier getting a Roloson, Varlamov, Niemi, Luongo or Price than it will be getting AO.

lokguin · #19 02-02-2011, 05:18 PM

You are ahead on this deal. I would definetly do it. I've offered even more(goalie starter,topd,topforward) for Ovie in a league where wins = 3pts.

Drgreen · #20 02-02-2011, 07:00 PM

Ovie side hands down.

I also see you say ovie is worth 100 points that is his bottom and they you say heatley is a 90 point player I am not sure he will ever hit 90 points again. So I don't think that is a fair comparision. It is so hard to get an ovie so you should jump
at the chance

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